Publications

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  Other

  Securing Europe’s Critical Minerals: Leveraging the EU-Ukraine Partnership Amidst US Competition

  The EU has a unique opportunity to bolster its strategic autonomy by intensifying its partnership with Ukraine, particularly in light of the signed US-Ukraine minerals deal. The 2021 partnership agreement on raw materials remains a valuable foundation. Still, in its current shape, it requires targeted enhancement to reflect the current geopolitical challenges and to more effectively integrate Ukraine into the EU’s critical raw materials strategy. By taking affirmative actions through targeted investment, active pursuit of joint ventures and technical support for Ukraine’s minerals sector, the EU can secure vital minerals for its automotive, defence, and aerospace industries. Simultaneously, these actions can support Ukraine’s recovery and accelerate its European integration.

  At the same time, Ukraine’s position is also crucial considering the strategic implications of the signed US-Ukraine minerals deal. The Ukrainian government must thoroughly manage how its new bilateral commitments influence its sovereignty, control over critical minerals, and ability to ensure regulatory and investment alignment with the EU. The key question is whether the Ukrainian government can balance partnerships with the EU and the US while maintaining its commitment to EU integration and legal obligations. In this regard, the EU should be more proactive, especially considering the importance that Ukraine’s critical minerals can play in meeting some of the CRMA objectives and its broader industrial resilience.

  Maksym Beznosiuk Resources Ukraine
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  Other

  The Future of NATO: Demise, Reform, or Rebirth?

  Pax Americana and the US-led global order as we have known it are gone. US President Trump has driven a wedge between US and European security, and is eroding NATO – to the delight of Vladimir Putin. But si vis pacem, para bellum – this old adage is as true as ever. As the tectonic plates continue to shift beneath us, NATO needs to prepare for all eventualities. With the US becoming more transactional or even antagonistic, Europeans in NATO and the EU must change gear and focus on what is needed to become a serious geostrategic actor. The stakes could not be higher: If Europeans want to prevent the world from returning to an era where might makes right, they need to forge a shared vision of their future, including for defence and security. They need to find new leadership formulas, take a fresh look at institutional frameworks and laser-focus on building a broad range of capabilities.

  This policy paper outlines the strategic context, defines a number of plausible scenarios, and then charts out key policy recommendations focusing on three main areas: leadership, enabling frameworks and structures, and key capabilities.

  Europeans in NATO and the EU can avoid a doomsday scenario where they would become the playball of strongmen in Washington, Moscow or Beijing. But that requires leadership, a firm belief in their strength, and determination to acquire the tools of an assertive geostrategic actor.  

  Gerlinde Niehus Peter Hefele Defence NATO
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  Collaborative

  Finland’s NATO Strategy

  Finland applied for NATO membership on May 17, 2022 – less than three months after Russia started its war of aggression against Ukraine. The NATO countries signed the accession protocol on membership on July 5, 2022, when Finland became an observer member. Finland became a full member of NATO on April 4, 2023.

  The process was controlled, but fast. The long-standing political way of talking about Finland’s NATO option became history when both the citizens and the political leadership turned in support of NATO membership in a few weeks in the spring of 2022.

  At that time, Ajatuspaja Toivo and Wilfried Centre for European Studies published the collection of writings “Finland’s NATO Spring 2022”, recording the views of researchers and other experts on what membership would mean for Finland, how the process is progressing and what kind of historical change in our security policy is involved. Our publication produced new information to support political decision-making, which is our main task.

  Now, two years later, we return to the NATO topic. What should Finland consider in its NATO strategy? What is essential from the point of view of Swedish or Nordic cooperation? How are the security policies of the EU and NATO interrelated, and what is happening in the Arctic region? Conscript service and, of course, Russia’s perspective are also discussed in this work.

  The publication is a cross-section of the security situation, it takes part in the discussion about Finland’s role in NATO and it gives an opportunity to review and comment on the foreign and security policy reports that will be published later. Thanks to all the expert authors and thanks to Elina Riutta for her cooperation in editing the book.

  Defence EU-Russia NATO
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  Future of Europe

  Gaining Insights Into the Gender Gap and Orientations of Young European Citizens: An Analysis of Longitudinal Glocalities Survey Data From Eight European Countries

  This report examines the perceptions, aspirations, and challenges faced by young Europeans, focusing on the widening gender gap and shifting value orientations. Based on comprehensive longitudinal Glocalities survey data from eight European countries, it reveals a growing divergence in values between young men and women, with young women increasingly embracing liberal and anti-patriarchal ideals, while young men lean towards traditional and conservative ideologies. This divergence poses a significant challengeto the conventional view of a uniformly progressive youth demographic.

  The study highlights the critical dimensions of hope versus despair and freedom versus control, which illuminate generational and gender-specific differences in (political) behavior. It uncovers a troubling trend of pessimism and societal dissatisfaction among young men aged 18–29, leading to decreased engagement, increased polarization, and the rise of right-wing populist movements. Young women have also been experiencing increasing despair, even more so than men. Economic and educational disparities further exacerbate these feelings, as structural changes in the global economy disproportionately impact young citizens, limiting job opportunities in traditional sectors. Despite these challenges, there is the potential for centrist parties to reclaim leadership by addressing generational divides, fostering inclusive narratives, and promoting trust in liberal democratic systems. By involving young people in substantive roles and by addressing their concerns, it is possible to reinforce European values and navigate the complexities of the future, while at the same time 1 acknowledging the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead.

  Peter Hefele Martijn Lampert Panos Papadongonas
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  IN BRIEF

  Evaluating China’s Space Capabilities and Ambitions

  China’s space ambitions now outpace every other country – even the US. From the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party has always seen space as key to cementing China’s status as a global superpower. These ambitions have outlived the Cold War era space race, with China’s State Council publishing five high-level policy papers on space between 2000 and 2021. Yet China’s space ambitions are about far more than building international status. Space capabilities are seen by China’s leadership as critical to economic security and military superiority, particularly as it seeks to control the strategic technologies of the future.

  Andrew Yeh Connor Horsfall Dimitar Lilkov China Defence Foreign Policy Space
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  Collaborative

  Battle for Democracy in the Digital Age

  To read this paper in Czech, click here.

  To access our Policy Director Peter Hefele’s contribution to this edited volume, titled “A Generation of Extremists? Values and Political Attitudes of European Youth”, click here.

  Democracy faces a range of threats today. The United States is gradually moving away from the liberal model towards authoritarianism, while Russia is actively seeking to weaken democratic institutions and strengthen its geopolitical influence. Russia’s strategy is aimed at systematically undermining transatlantic ties and marginalising US influence in Europe, which would allow it to strengthen its position and limit the influence of democratic forces. Democratic states in Europe have long underestimated, however, these risks and are often not prepared to respond adequately, leading to indecision and an inability to effectively counter new threats. Thus far, they have merely stood still.

  In addition to the traditional geopolitical risks, we also must address new challenges posed by the digital world. Social media platforms and other digital channels can be sources of democratisation of public space, but can also be used to spread disinformation and manipulate public opinion. Cyber- attacks, Internet silencing and online espionage are used by state and non-state bodies and require appropriate responses and strategies to defend democratic institutions.

  Against this backdrop, the nature of geopolitical competition between the European Union (EU) and Russia, in their shared neighbourhood, is changing. Both the EU and Russia seek to influence the political and economic direction of neighbouring states, but do so through fundamentally different approaches. The EU exerts the weight of its authority and calls for the promotion of democratisation, emphasising economic liberalisation, integration with European markets and the development of the rule of law in the process. In contrast, Russia relies on force and coercion, using increasing energy dependence, economic pressure and security threats to maintain influence.

  Lucie Tungul Democracy Digital
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  Other

  Strengthening the LGBTIQ+ Voice As Part of the Centre-Right Narrative 

  For too long, the discourse on the rights of the LGBTIQ+ communities and individuals has been neglected in the political narrative and campaigning of conservative and Christian-democratic parties in Europe – leaving this space to be occupied by left-wing and green parties. Consequently, voting for EPP-affiliated political parties remained low in several countries. However, there is no reason for the EPP family to stay in this weak position.

  The core values of the EPP and its member parties are built upon respect for each individual and the unwavering demand for individual freedom, inclusion, and openness. Our objective is to keep building a society where each and every citizen can live freely and safely as individuals, as a part of a family and of society, and be respected for who they are.

  We strongly believe that these basic values endorsed by the political family of EPP are the strongest guarantee to ensure the rights of the LGBTIQ+ communities across Europe: freedom, respect, and the right for individuals to be different; but also to see and recognise the multitude of individuality, of which sexual orientation and gender identity are as important as other characteristics. In acknowledging and emphasising this fact, we reject the notion that being LGBTIQ+ is just some form of ideology.

  Peter Hefele Helge Ytterøy L’orange Centre-Right Values
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  European View

  The Future of Transatlantic Relations

  Foreign Policy Transatlantic
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  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2024

  
  2024 was another year of seismic shifts. The EU faced a barrage of challenges, reshaping the global landscape and demanding a fundamental reassessment of our collective future. This annual report by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies provides insightful information on our key areas of focus from the past year, demonstrating our commitment to providing actionable solutions for the EU’s present challenges.

  -Mikuláš Dzurinda, President of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies

  Margherita Movarelli Theo Larue Centre-Right EU Member States European Union Leadership
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  IN BRIEF

  How Mainstream Parties Can Defend Democracy by Adopting Parts of the Populist Agenda

  The German parliamentary election of 23 February reopened the question of how the political mainstream should deal with far-right agitation on immigration and identity. A popular rule of thumb holds that where the far-right attempts to legitimise people’s fear of immigrants and globalisation, mainstream parties should withstand the temptation to copy the far-right focus on immigration lest they strengthen the extremes and lose votes.

  Recent examples of national parliamentary elections in Europe show that the ‘copy-versus-the original’ thesis is false. The cases of Germany, Portugal, Poland, Greece and Denmark demonstrate that it is possible for the political mainstream to make immigration a rallying theme and win at the polls. In these countries, mainstream parties did ‘copy’ immigration as a campaign topic from the national populists or the far right. However, they did not reproduce the populist narratives in their entirety. Instead, these parties adopted tougher positions on immigration without the xenophobic undertones. On assuming power, they kept their countries firmly anchored to the framework of liberal democracy.

  Vít Novotný Democracy Migration Political Parties Populism
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  IN BRIEF

  Preventing Georgia from Sliding Away: Options for the European Union

  In the aftermath of the 2024 parliamentary elections, Georgia slipped into a period of deep political crisis. The ruling Georgian Dream (GD) government has unilaterally decided to suspend EU accession talks until 2028 – despite the country having obtained EU candidate status in December 2023. This triggered mass unrest and raised serious concerns over Georgia’s democratic trajectory.

  Framed by GD as a move to protect national sovereignty from so-called undue external influence, the suspension is widely interpreted as a rejection of the EU’s reform conditions and a pivot away from democratic commitments and sliding back into the Russian sphere of influence. The decision has intensified domestic polarisation, with large swaths of the population viewing it as a betrayal of Georgia’s path to Europe. Protests have erupted nationwide, continuing for over 126 days. Demonstrators demand snap elections, increased accountability, and a recommitment to democratic norms. Over 500 individuals have been detained for participating in the protests. Among them, more than 50 have been charged with criminal offenses such as organising group violence, attacking police officers, and property damage. Several activists and journalists remain in custody under questionable charges. 

  In parallel with suspending EU accession talks, the GD government has adopted a package of legislative measures without due public consultations, to further undermine democratic governance. These include a Foreign Agents Registration Act targeting civil society, restrictions on foreign funding for media that threaten independent journalism, and regressive amendments to gender equality laws. Further changes have politicised civil service appointments, weakened civil society’s structured role in participating in and monitoring policymaking, and introduced a controversial bill to ban political parties linked to the opposition. Together, these moves represent a clear drift toward authoritarian consolidation and a sharp departure from European democratic values.

  Teona Lavrelashvili Peter Hefele Democracy Eastern Partnership Foreign Policy
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  Policy Briefs

  Hedging Chaos: How the EU, Japan and South Korea Can Shape a New Type of Trading Power

  Committing to a rules-based, multilateral order is no longer enough. The EU needs an expanded trading playbook to meet the geopolitical moment. And while a strong transatlantic trading alliance will always remain central to the EU’s economic future, Brussels should not be purely reactive to policy shifts in Washington. Rather, the EU should develop flexible coalitions of trading economies, formed on an issue-by-issue basis. These coalitions—while anchored in trading relationships with Washington— should be conscious of the common challenges their members face due to the more transactional, and China-focused, US approach.

  As a first step, Brussels’s conception of the transatlantic alliance must be broadened into that of a trans-oceanic network, with an initial focus on Japan and South Korea. Both of these states and the EU face a US–China trade trilemma and all exhibit fundamental security dependencies on Washington. In this context, closer partnerships with Tokyo and Seoul will diversify EU trading risks and create a hedge against greater US conditionality. If developed in the context of US economic security and trading frameworks, these partnerships could also provide a common platform for navigating some of the US’s demands with regard to de-risking from China.

  Three principles are proposed. The first—compartmentalisation—refers to establishing mutually beneficial partnerships focused on sectoral issues, meaning partnerships which do not become distracted by the inevitable geopolitical disagreements in other areas. Several sectors are proposed for immediate further cooperation. The second—something new, something borrowed—holds that what is required is an evolution (and the extension) of existing agreements, rather than the creation of unnecessary new formats or institutions. The third principle is that these should be partnerships based on both pragmatism and politics, and therefore the extension of these agreements to like-minded partners should be a top priority. The UK should be the immediate focus, given London’s geopolitical links to Europe, the US and Asia.

  Eoin Drea Foreign Policy Trade
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  Other

  Christian Democracy, Conservatism and the Challenge of the Extremes

  This book examines the political challenges facing Europe’s centre-right, focusing on the rise of radical-right parties and their impact on democracy, European integration, and transatlantic ties. It explores the values and strategies of Christian Democracy and conservatism, with emphasis on the European People’s Party (EPP). Contributors, including politicians and academics, discuss ways to counter populism and nationalism through collaboration, sustainability, and reaffirmed values. This analysis is essential for understanding the future of European politics.

  If you are interested in purchasing a physical copy of the book, you can do so by clicking here.

  Klaus Welle Federico Ottavio Reho Centre-Right Christian Democracy
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  Ukraine

  Reconstructing Ukraine: How the EU and Ukraine Can Mutually Benefit

  As of January 2024, The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a substantial impact on the Ukrainian economy, leading to approximately $152 billion in overall direct damage to the Ukrainian economy. The energy ($11 billion), transportation ($34 billion), and housing and utilities ($56 billion) sectors were among those that experienced the heaviest damage, constituting nearly 75% of the total damage. Ukraine is projected to require $486 billion in recovery and reconstruction needs within a decade while considering economic factors like inflationary pressure and compliance with modern standards (e.g., low energy intensity). In this regard, the energy ($47 billion), housing ($80 billion), and transportation ($74 billion) sectors would require funding for nearly half of these recovery needs during this period.

  This report aims to understand Ukraine’s key reconstruction needs, the response to them, and potential ways the EU can contribute to Ukrainian recovery. It seeks to identify critical areas where the EU can focus its reconstruction efforts for the near-term and long-term perspective and potential benefits for Ukraine and the EU.

  This report also explores ways of enhancing collaboration between the Ukrainian government and the EU to speed up reconstruction efforts across Ukraine. It will touch upon the various funding instruments at the EU level and how to utilise them effectively to ensure transparent and sustainable support for the Ukrainian economic recovery.

  This report is based on primary (e.g., laws and regulations) and secondary (e.g., think tank reports, damage and recovery needs assessments, as well as EU and official publications) data review and analysis.

  Maksym Beznosiuk EU-Russia Foreign Policy Ukraine
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  Policy Briefs

  A Digital Euro: Balancing Innovation, Autonomy and Trust

  The digital euro project is a reaction to citizen preferences shifting towards payment via digital means. It addresses the fragmentation of the European payment sector with the aim of highlighting ways to support the single market, strategic autonomy and the monetary sovereignty of the EU. Because the digital euro is a complex project requiring a thorough legal, economic and political assessment, this policy brief looks at three crucial aspects of the proposal.

  The brief first presents the essential features of the digital euro project in the context of European law, economics and politics. In contrast to private forms of electronic money that private banks create, the digital euro will be a retail central bank digital currency. As such, it will be a direct liability of the central bank, like cash. With many payments moving online, the digital euro ensures the role of public money in an increasingly digitised economy.

  This digital euro legislative framework should ensure trust by guaranteeing privacy, access to cash and financial inclusion. The establishment of a digital euro has the potential to cause structural changes to the banking system. Thus, it will need to have carefully calibrated holding limits and will not be remunerated—that is, like cash, interest rates will not be applied.

  Third, the policy brief identifies critical aspects, such as the distribution of competences between the lawmakers and the European Central Bank, that require thorough legal, economic and, ultimately, political assessment. Policymakers face difficult questions that ultimately relate to the European Central Bank’s exclusive competence over monetary policy, central bank independence and the relationship of these issues to the structure of the financial system. The brief concludes by offering a series of recommendations for policymakers.

  Sebastian Heidebrecht Eoin Drea Digital Economy Innovation
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds Extended

  A Roadmap for a Sustainable Future

  Since its inception, the Martens Centre’s project The 7Ds for Sustainability has catalysed interest, fostered dialogue and spurred action. However, as both European politics and global challenges continue to evolve at a rapid pace, we must redouble our efforts. With a new European Parliament and Commission at the helm, the stakes are higher than ever. The interconnected crises—geopolitical tensions, divided societies, climate change, inequality, and the urgent need for competitiveness and prosperity—demand a bold and unified strategy.

  I am therefore pleased to present the extended version of the Martens Centre’s strategic document.

  The 7Ds for Sustainability: Extended offers a timely and insightful roadmap for navigating this complex landscape. This comprehensive policy book was born out of the collaborative efforts of the Martens Centre research team—under the guidance of Klaus Welle, Chairman of the Martens Centre Academic Council and former Secretary General of the European Parliament—and a group of renowned external experts. The book provides a nuanced and actionable framework for addressing the pressing issues of our time.

  The publication outlines seven policy areas: decarbonisation, defence, democracy, demography, de-risking globalisation and digitalisation. These form the bedrock of a more resilient, equitable and prosperous EU. Each chapter provides a comprehensive analysis of the specific challenges and opportunities within these domains, offering actionable policy recommendations to guide the EU’s future trajectory.

  I commend the authors for their thoughtful analysis and their commitment to finding solutions that can benefit both present and future generations. By embracing the principles outlined in this book, policymakers, businesses and civil society can work together to create a more sustainable future for the EU.

  I am confident that this publication will serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, scholars and the European public alike, inspiring and guiding our collective efforts towards a more sustainable future. The 7Ds for Sustainability: Extended is more than just a set of principles: it is a catalyst for change and action and provides a much-needed compass for navigating the challenges and seizing the opportunities that lie ahead.

  Have an inspiring read!

  Mikuláš Dzurinda, President of the Martens Centre

  Former Prime Minister of Slovakia

  Klaus Welle Climate Change Defence Democracy Demography Digital Economy EU Member States Foreign Policy Leadership Migration
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Digitalisation Extended

  Alongside the Green Deal and the first steps towards a Defence Union, creating a single European digital space was a key project of the outgoing European Commission (2019–24). This involved establishing an interconnected set of rules and regulations aimed at creating a level playing field for competition among European and international companies, enhancing the rights of Europe’s ‘digital citizens’, protecting the integrity of democratic institutions and processes, and promoting global cooperation in the digital sphere.

  Digitalisation is now seen as a key enabler that will lay the foundation for Europe’s future value creation. The success of this project will also determine the geopolitical weight of the Union vis-à-vis major competing powers such as the US and China. From a novel approach to artificial intelligence governance to a revamped understanding of competition law in the digital domain, the EU’s ambitions are high. Yet, piecemeal legislation and the lack of a fully integrated digital single market have led to inconsistent regulation, infrastructure gaps, a lack of investment and security-related issues in its digital sphere.

  Many European tech companies are struggling to offer their services outside national borders and to expand their reach to a genuinely European (and global) customer base. To survive in a world where the US and China and their digital giants dominate international competition, the EU needs not only up-to-date regulations that create a fair and level playing field and protect the interests of European citizens but also a strong industrial base. The EU must ensure the production and importation of next-generation semiconductors, joint European funding for breakthrough research and development, and access to secure global supply chains. These goals cannot remain aspirations but must be realised. The resilience of hardware infrastructure and software services throughout the EU is more than a mere technical concern: it impacts the security of sensitive user data, intellectual property rights and national security. At the same time, Europe needs a new culture of risk-taking and entrepreneurship to unleash the innovation potential of digitalisation in the fields of the green transformation and healthcare. Digitalisation is also helping to overcome regional disparities within Europe and is enabling new growth, particularly in the Central and Eastern European countries.

  The EU needs to boost its internal connectivity and digital excellence, and prepare for the ever-expanding global threats from hostile actors, malicious digital applications and state-led malign influence on online campaigns. When it comes to international partnerships, ‘coopetition’ will be the modus operandi of those countries that are part of the global democratic alliance. At the same time, efforts continue to be made to find a global consensus on the general principles for the use of artificial intelligence.

  Amelia Andersdotter Milda Kaklauskaitė Žiga Turk Anastas Punev Dimitar Lilkov Peter Hefele Digital
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – De-risking Globalisation Extended

  Several crises over the last two decades, including the Covid-19 pandemic and, most recently, the Russian war against Ukraine, have shown the vulnerability of global supply-chain systems and have shattered illusions about ever-progressing globalisation. This has forced the EU to rethink its traditional reliance on and support for multilateralism and global cooperation, which had led to an over-dependence on certain countries and producers in crucial fields such as raw materials and chemical products. Over the last couple of years, the Union has responded to these developments by creating a series of policies and launching initiatives to de- risk its economic relations and reduce the potential for political blackmail.

  The biggest systemic competitor in this respect is China, due to its economic power, political governance system and global revisionist ambitions. The challenges posed by its unique politico-economic system require a comprehensive answer from all open and market-based societies in the West.

  Any de-risking strategy has to consider the effects on the sustainable transformation the EU is currently undergoing. Europe has always been a herald for open markets and globalisation. As it undergoes a massive transformation towards a low-emission economy, Europe should not build ‘green walls’ and engage in a subsidy race that may damage its long-term competitiveness.

  The success and flexibility of Europe’s economy lie largely in supporting flourishing ecosystems for small and medium-sized enterprises. Industrial policy can contribute to enhanced resilience but must avoid over- regulation and unilaterally favouring large companies.

  Shielding Europe’s economy and political system from external risks should not lead to abandoning the efforts to revitalise an open and sustainable global trade system. The priority should be to create alliances of the willing and promote the EU as a regulatory leader and reliable partner for third countries, particularly in the Global South. Strengthening the transatlantic trading relationship will continue to be a key element of this strategy.

  Roberta N. Haar Jakub Janda Peter Hefele Peter Hefele Globalisation Trade
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Demography Extended

  The European welfare state is being challenged by new realities. People’s outlooks on life have changed dramatically over the past decades, including their views on religion, the family and work. The consequences of these societal changes include rising life expectancies and stagnating fertility rates that are insufficient for the natural increase of the population. Humanity’s efforts to curtail overpopulation and increase longevity have caused the ageing of our societies, a trend that has been under way for decades.

  Our institutions and policies are not ready for these developments. National social security systems lack sustainable funding. Labour market rules are lagging behind the needs of the ageing societies, and these rules do not capitalise on the experience that older workers can bring in. In general, pronatalist policies in the form of cash transfers to young families have not fulfilled their objective. The EU’s population has been growing only thanks to immigration from outside the bloc, but family reunification—the most frequent type of EU-bound immigration—has not improved the ratios of workers to non-workers. In Southern and Eastern Europe and in many regions elsewhere on the continent, depopulation and emigration are compounding the problems caused by ageing. Moreover, the Covid-19 pandemic has contributed to a worsening of mental health. This has impacted young people with particular severity, keeping them out of schools and jobs.

  To mitigate the effects of population ageing and the other phenomena mentioned, it is incumbent on the EU’s national governments to create institutional environments that increase human capital and make it easier for women and men to both pursue a career and raise a family. As for the numbers of children born, the fact that fertility rates in some EU countries are higher than in others suggests the crucial importance of national social policies. It used be assumed that a woman who ‘stays at home’ is more likely to have children than a woman who ‘pursues a career.’ Contrary to that outdated notion, it now appears that having stable work allows those who wish to have children to choose to do so.

  Health care, affordable housing and lifelong learning have become crucial for maintaining the well-being of the population and a productive labour force. The participation of women, older people, young people and immigrant groups in the labour market must be increased. The state pension age should be increased, albeit with elements of flexibility to allow for individual choice. Finally, innovative solutions are needed to address both depopulation in some countries and areas and the growing regional imbalances within the EU.

  Daniela Vono de Vilhena Anna Matysiak Anna Kurowska Arnstein Aassve Rainer Muenz Tado Jurić Klaus Welle Vít Novotný Demography Migration
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Democracy Extended

  Democracy is the beating heart and core of the EU’s identity, along with peace. From its inception in the aftermath of the Second World War, European integration has been open only to democratic countries that respect the rule of law and fundamental freedoms. It has also played an essential role in democratising, stabilising and integrating new countries, from Greece, Spain and Portugal in the 1970s and 1980s to the post-Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s and 2000s.

  Since the first direct election of the European Parliament in 1979, the EU’s democratic system has developed hugely too: by increasing transparency, empowering the European Parliament, making the European Commission more accountable and even involving citizens in innovative experiments such as the Conference on the Future of Europe. As a result, the EU now has clear dual democratic legitimacy as a union of states and citizens, each represented in one of the equal co-legislators: the Council and the European Parliament respectively. Moreover, the multilevel nature of EU democracy is recognised through the direct involvement of the national parliaments in various capacities, from the ratification of mixed trade agreements to the yellow and orange card procedures which protect subsidiarity.

  As a side effect of the last 15 years of successive crises, EU affairs have also become more politicised. As a result, European issues have become essential to national democratic debates, and a European public sphere has finally begun to emerge. It is important that democratic accountability does not lag behind political and institutional developments, as has at times been the case over the last decades when new rules and bodies have been created outside the EU legal framework to react to crisis situations.

  As the EU acquires new powers and competences to manage new challenges in the most diverse fields, it will be necessary to improve the quality of EU democracy, the legitimacy of its institutions, and their responsiveness to the needs and preferences of the EU member states and citizens. Moreover, democratic values and institutions face new challenges, such as disinformation, polarisation and a lack of trust in political elites—all in a world of systemic rivalry.

  Anthony Teasdale Nicolai Von Ondarza Wouter Wolfs Adriaan Schout Federico Ottavio Reho Nikolaos Tzifakis Richard Corbett Klaus Welle Federico Ottavio Reho Democracy Elections EU Member States
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Decarbonisation Extended

  With its 2019 Green Deal and the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, the EU aims to become the most influential global actor when it comes to advancing the international agenda on decarbonisation and the fight against climate change. Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly shifted political priorities and resources, making the commitments pledged in the previous decade even more challenging to achieve. At the same time, resilience and economic security have become key criteria for the future transformation.

  Through its domestic and external relationships, the EU has to be able to ensure a sufficient and reliable supply of materials, fuels, technologies and skills, while meeting the energy demand of its citizens and industries in a secure, flexible and efficient manner. The benefits of the transformation project must be balanced with the need for social acceptance. Openness towards manifold innovation patterns is as important as political and regulatory predictability.

  Given the gigantic financial resources needed to transform the existing fossil-based economies, the role of the private sector is crucial to making this happen faster and in a more cost-efficient manner. The volume of private investment in technology and infrastructure must be scaled up massively, as public sources will be less available due to the already high levels of debt. Due to the the existing regulatory framework, financial instruments are still not sufficiently accessible for a large part of the corporate sector. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) lack access to bond market investors and various sophisticated products.

  For too long, issues linked to the green transition have been separated from those related to the security of raw materials. But this ignores the ways in which both kinds of issues are inextricably bound up with each. This is because some of these raw materials are components essential to digitalisation, and the green transition and digitalisation are inseparably linked with each other. Ensuring a stable and affordable raw material supply chain without getting into new import dependencies, with all their geopolitical implications, requires a strategic reorientation of European politics.

  The EU has to regain lost ground in the design and production of innovative clean technology. Most of the progress in this area is being made in North America and Asia, and it is there that most large-scale production is also taking place. State subsidies have distorted the level playing field and given rise to daunting challenges for European companies.

  Bernd Weber Sam Williams Frank Umbach Jarosław Pietras Markus Demary Adriana Neligan Artur Patuleia Domien Vangenechten Peter Hefele Environment
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Debt Extended

  Debt is a question of dose. Too much, and you lose your political independence and sovereignty. Too little, and you might miss out on the possibility and necessity of building infrastructure that facilitates future development.

  Keynes taught us that there are situations in which price and interest signals do not work and, as a result, the state is the only actor able to step in temporarily and stabilise the economy—and with it, the political system. A hard lesson was learned in the 1930s. It inspired us during Covid, when the economy threatened to come to a standstill. But debt was put on the EU’s balance sheet without corresponding own resources for the Union to finance and repay it. In addition, no proper parliamentary oversight of debt at the EU level was introduced.

  Unfortunately, we have now entered a period of vulgar Keynesianism: increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio in crisis times and in good times as well. The consequence is a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 90% in the eurozone and around 100% in the UK and the US. If this trend continues, it will not be very long before a debt crisis reoccurs and the independence of our political decision-making is threatened, together with the cohesion of the EU.

  China and Japan are no exception to this trend. Japan has already demonstrated how ageing societies, with correspondingly meagre growth, can enter into decades of exploding debt. China’s debt is largely out of control, especially on the local and regional level, for which the central state will ultimately have to take responsibility. This accumulation of debt was partially driven by the end of a property building boom and significant over-capacity in many sectors of the economy. This has resulted in Chinese debt levels no longer being accompanied by a sustainable growth model.

  The situation is further aggravated by the fact that public investments have become unavoidable in digital infrastructure, defence and decarbonisation, and to alleviate the financial burdens of unfavourable demographics. De-risking from China will add to the burden. The time of imported deflation that was the consequence of hundreds of millions of Chinese workers being integrated into the global market for the first time seems to be over.

  During the eurozone crisis, we learned that cutting expenditure on its own is not the answer, because the potential reduction in debt can be largely offset by a significant reduction in GDP as well. Any successful strategy will therefore have to focus on growth and productivity-enhancing strategies at the same time.

  Jürgen Matthes Fredrik N. G. Andersson Lars Jonung Eoin Drea Alain Lamassoure Adriaan Schout Klaus Welle Eoin Drea Economy Macroeconomics
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  Collaborative

  Financing Politics in Europe: a Political Party Roadmap for More Transparency and Effectiveness

  There is no such thing as a free meal, and everything has a price. And indeed, because money is at the centre of everything, it also plays a crucial part in politics – even though it might sound provocative, democracy also has a dollar—or, in this case, a euro—figure attached to it. To put it simply, democracy needs money to function. And because the money is always elsewhere than in politics, politicians need to make an effort to reach out to gain access to it.

  However, in democracies this needs to be done transparently (and efficiently) so that the flows of money towards parties and politicians do not interfere with the will of the people.

  This publication explores the many ways in which money and politics interact, and provides a roadmap for political parties to act for a more transparent and effective financing of European politics: from state subsidies to private fundraising, from regulation to oversight institutions, from protecting European politics from the influence of foreign authoritarian actors to funding European political parties, the authors provide an in-depth analysis of the tools that politicians have to better fund politics in Europe.

  Thibault Muzergues Democracy EU Institutions Party Structures Political Parties
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  Collaborative

  50 Years Since the Turkish Invasion, 20 Years Since Accession to the EU

  This publication can be purchased here.

  The publication of this collective volume will mark an important milestone, commemorating 50 years since the illegal Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 and 20 years since the Republic of Cyprus joined the European Union in 2004. These two pivotal events have profoundly influenced Cyprus’ modern history and identity, shaping the island’s political landscape, social structures, and international relations. This book brings together esteemed academics, researchers, and policy experts who offer in-depth analyses of the factors that have molded Cyprus’ recent history. Through a multi-thematic and interdisciplinary approach, the volume will provide a comprehensive exploration of Cyprus’ journey, capturing the intricate mosaic of experiences, struggles, and achievements that form the Cyprus of today.

  Antonis Klapsis
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  Collaborative

  Intersecting Paths: Strategic Autonomy, Enlargement, and the Future of EU-Western Balkans Relations

  The report provides major input for the current European debate on how the EU can be made fit for enlargement. What does this mean for the countries of the Western Balkans in general, and for North Macedonia more specifically. Which elements should be further emphasized vis-à-vis our European integration path. The analysis should provide answers to this question and spark a debate on national, regional and European level.

  
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  Other

  Proposal for the European Commission White Paper on The Future of European Defence

  In their mission letters from the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative/Vice-President, Kaja Kallas, were tasked with preparing a White Paper on the Future of European Defence within the first 100 days of their mandate.

  To support this effort, the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies has created this non-paper, which builds on the analysis presented in the publication “7Ds – Defence Extended.” This document compiles key ideas and policy recommendations from the Centre’s work, offering innovative and well-researched proposals to help develop the European Defence Union.

  The Martens Centre’s proposal emphasises the need for the European Union and its member states to prepare for “the most extreme military contingencies.” It focuses on five critical areas: enhancing defence production capabilities, fostering defence innovation, improving military mobility, addressing strategic capability gaps, and effectively financing European defence.

  Ionela Ciolan Defence EU-Russia Foreign Policy
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  European View

  Overcoming the geography of discontent: New perspectives and innovative solutions

  Natalia Gavrilița Steven Van Hecke EU Member States European Union
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  Policy Briefs

  Confronting Europe’s Labour Shortage: A Strategic Blueprint to Attract Global Talent and Reverse Population Decline

  The EU is grappling with a looming crisis that has slipped under the radar amidst the chaos of geopolitical instability: a severe labour shortage, worsened by accelerating demographic decline. This is not just a workforce issue—it is a threat to the very fabric of Europe’s future. As populations dwindle, particularly in peripheral regions, the labour deficit grows more alarming by the day.

  Drawing on best practices and informed by the current political and socio- economic landscape, this policy brief argues that attracting young global talent, particularly through education, is no longer a choice but a necessity to combat depopulation and ignite economic revival. This policy brief sets forth urgent recommendations which include establishing clear migration targets, strengthening reskilling and civic–linguistic training programmes for migrants, fully digitising migration-management processes and fostering cooperation with source countries. Together, these measures should aim to build a compelling ‘European Dream’, attracting and retaining the skilled individuals essential for the continent’s future prosperity.

  Teona Lavrelashvili Demography Labour Migration
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  Other

  Keeping the European Momentum: A Pan-European Study on EU Enlargement and Deepening

  The download button below links to the compact version of the study. To read the long version, click here.

  The European Union is at a crossroads, both in terms of its internal constitutional reform and the integration of new member states. Hence, deepening and enlargement are inseparably linked together. Finding solutions to both challenges will be the major task of the new legislative term of the European Parliament and Commission from 2024 to 2029. As the official think tank of the European People’s Party (EPP), the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies develops policy options for European decisionmakers and opinion leaders from a centre-right perspective. Having been the driving force behind past European integration and enlargement processes since the creation of the European Economic Community in 1957, the political family of the EPP feels a distinct obligation to shape the decisive next steps and lay a successful path ahead for a next-generation European Union.

  While the last major round of new EU memberships in 2004 happened under comparatively stable regional and geopolitical circumstances, the current situation couldn’t be worse. Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Middle East again on the brink of a regional conflict, and an assertively rising China are only three major destabilising and adverse developments working against the core ideas of Europe as an anchor of peace, stability, and well-being.

  Enlarging the European Union to gain more weight as a geopolitical actor and stabilise the endangered periphery by integrating neighbouring nations into the framework of the European Union is often mentioned as an argument in favour of opening “the club” to new members. At the same time, the rise of Eurosceptic parties shows a growing discontent with the Union’s current functioning and is blurring the prospect of an accelerated and successful enlargement process.

  In the context of the European Election 2024 and the constitution of a New European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen, the Martens Centre commissioned Leuven-based Ipsos to conduct a data-driven survey across all EU-27 member states. To better understand EU citizens’ attitudes and their views towards the enlargement and deepening of the European Union, the research project looked more closely at the following dimensions:

  • What are the conceptions of “Europe” across different socio-demographic groups and countries?
  • How do citizens of the EU member states resonate with the perspective of a larger and deeper Union, mainly when talking about the potential accession of Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, and the Western Balkan countries?
  • What are the attitudes of different socio-political groups towards various models of integrating those candidate members in the EU?
  • What has to be changed within the European treaties to make any further enlargement and deepening into a success story, and not a failure for the Union?

  

  Peter Hefele Enlargement EU Member States European Union
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  Other

  A Better Deal for Climate and European Competitiveness: Policy Proposals for the European Centre–Right

  Environmental degradation is a fact. The prevailing scientific consensus is that humankind is directly responsible for most of the rising carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere and their related negative effects. Within the EU political mainstream, these findings have positively resonated in policy and resulted in the most ambitious climate agenda globally. Most European citizens also recognise the threats of climate change and the need for our society to adapt and move in a more sustainable direction.

  Decarbonisation is one of the most important political challenges of this century. The goals that have been set for European carbon neutrality by 2050 are laudable but presuppose the mobilisation of huge financial and material resources, as well as fundamental changes in the economic, industrial, transport, agricultural and energy sectors of European states. Climate spending already dominates the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the post-Covid recovery fund, with hundreds of billions of euros earmarked for the transition. The European Green Deal has a direct bearing on the economic performance of member states and private enterprises, while also becoming ever more present in the lives and pockets of European citizens.

  Importantly, the clean energy transition has a direct impact on the EU’s competitiveness and geopolitical clout. Consider the complexity of implementing such a transformative effort in concert with the rest of the international actors, which have all the incentives to free-ride on the efforts of others or delay the transition away from fossil fuels as long as possible.

  The decarbonisation destination is set, but the policy routes are many and uncertain. Regrettably, the EU is in a completely different financial and geopolitical position compared to 2019, when the European Green Deal was announced. We already see clear signals that the current framework is neither generating ‘green growth’ nor putting the continent on a fast track towards carbon neutrality. If the EU is serious about its decarbonisation pledges, it needs to rethink its approach.

  This paper has two main objectives. First, it briefly addresses the main shortcomings of the Green Deal—the economic costs of the transition and the effect on European energy security and resource scarcity. It also looks into the overly optimistic projections for the renewable energy rollout and the huge investment gap in decarbonisation. More importantly, it puts forward a number of policy recommendations for European policymakers in the new legislative period. Achieving carbon neutrality should remain the long-term goal, but the policy arsenal has to be improved. The European centre–right needs to be actively involved in leading this strategy by crafting a blueprint that is both realistic and achievable and that is shaped by its own vision and political values.

  Dimitar Lilkov Climate Change Economy Green Deal
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  Research Papers

  Why Europe Needs a Nuclear Deterrent: A Critical Appraisal

  Nuclear weapons remain the unquestioned core of European defence and security policy. Most European countries rely on NATO’s nuclear umbrella for collective defence, primarily under US leadership, while a few, such as France, continue to address nuclear issues on a strictly national basis.

  The current security landscape in Europe is characterised by growing complexity and uncertainty. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s security vulnerabilities and raised concerns about Moscow’s nuclear sabre-rattling, especially in the Black Sea region. Furthermore, the emergence of revisionist powers, such as Russia and China, which are challenging the Western-led liberal world order, presents a new two-peer challenge for Euro-Atlantic security and NATO’s extended nuclear deterrence. This, combined with the evolving dynamics of American foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region and the potential re-election of the ‘transactionalist’ Donald Trump in November 2024, highlights the imperative for a critical reassessment of the role of nuclear weapons in Europe.

  In this context, a rigorous political debate is essential to explore the potential need for a common European nuclear deterrent, while prioritising the preservation of both the Atlantic Alliance and the Non-Proliferation Treaty regime.

  This research paper aims to critically evaluate the viability and necessity of implementing a shared nuclear deterrent for Europe, thereby enhancing the continent’s autonomy in its collective security and defence policy decisions. Taking into consideration Europe’s historical context and the current state of nuclear deterrence, the paper meticulously examines the prospects and challenges of establishing such a deterrent. It presents potential avenues and policy recommendations. Ultimately, the paper seeks to provide valuable insights that contribute to the academic and political discourse, and a compelling argument for EU policymakers to reconsider, discuss and potentially establish a European nuclear deterrent.

  Adérito Vicente Ionela Ciolan Defence Foreign Policy Security
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  Policy Briefs

  Building a Transatlantic Approach to Economic Security

  The emergence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as an economic superpower presents a shared set of challenges to economic security on both sides of the Atlantic, ranging from the country’s dominance of critical mineral supply chains to the impact of PRC ‘overcapacity’ on EU and US firms and its advancement in critical future technologies. Despite some promising joint initiatives, including the establishment of the EU–US Technology and Trade Council and the Minerals Security Partnership, the US and the EU have taken divergent approaches to managing economic security risks. This divergence is particularly noticeable in how they deal with subsidies, supply chain diversification, tariffs and investment restrictions.

  This policy brief identifies several areas in which the next European Commission and European Parliament should deepen transatlantic cooperation and deal with the shared economic security challenge presented by the PRC. The brief puts forward a set of policy recommendations which include coordinating strategic investments in green technology production, expanding joint dialogues, creating shared standards on issues such as data security, reviewing the case for a ‘Buy European’ requirement for access to EU subsidies and a range of special measures to protect the EU’s automotive industry.

  Andrew Yeh Sam Goodman Dimitar Lilkov Economy Transatlantic
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  Policy Briefs

  Reconnecting the British to Europe: Strategic Imperatives and Inconvenient Truths

  The goals of overcoming Putin, staunching populism and reinforcing Europe’s relevance for successor generations demand Europe’s most innovative and strategic statecraft since the late 1940s. This should include inviting the British people into plans for Europe’s future: with war in Europe having been inflicted by Putin, this is not transactional cherry-picking, but must instead be seen by Europe’s political leadership as a strategic imperative. The recent bilateral concord between France and the UK is a positive precedent.

  This paper illustrates three priority areas where greater UK–EU cooperation could take place: in environmental policy, in forming a European capital market and in defence. In addition, four further elements of civil society are viewed as being essential to tangibly reconnect the British with the heart of Europe on a practical level. These are reciprocal youth mobility (including British membership of Erasmus+), the re-engagement of civic interest groups, the UK rejoining Creative Europe, and the reinvigoration of town and city twinning initiatives.

  In the aftermath of the recent elections, a unique opportunity now exists for the UK and the EU to work together for their common benefit. Strengthening the European identity through public policies will empower more of Europe’s citizens to share more of life’s experiences, grounded in a mutual commitment to democracy and the rule of law.

  Dirk Hazell Eoin Drea Brexit
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  Policy Briefs

  The Northern Ireland Protocol and Why It Still Matters

  Brexit was a strategy for cutting loose from what its advocates regarded as the constraints of EU membership, a panacea for those hostile to what they regarded as constrained national sovereignty. It was a hubristic vision that ignored the complex interdependencies of contemporary globality that constrain national agency, especially for smaller and medium-sized states. The protracted withdrawal negotiations that followed the 2016 Brexit referendum exposed these fallacies.

  Amongst the most critical of the unanticipated consequences of the ‘hard Brexit’ pursued by the British government was the impact on the border arrangements and management of the island of Ireland, the only place where the EU and its former member state share a land frontier. It is a problematic border because it is fraught with historical memories, Moreover, this conflict was only relatively recently pacified by the Belfast Agreement (1998), of which the EU acted as a major guarantor. The signing of this agreement led to a historic but nevertheless fragile peace, brokered between the two culturally entrenched communities in Northern Ireland. In these circumstances, what Brexiteers had confidently predicted as a straightforward withdrawal turned out to be anything but, because Brexit threatened to destabilise the peace process.

  This paper examines the role the Irish border issue played in the fraught withdrawal process: that is, its consequences both for the Brexit that eventually transpired and for the peace process, and no less significantly, for the future relations between the UK its erstwhile EU partners.

  Michael O’Neill Eoin Drea Brexit Foreign Policy
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  Research Papers

  Interparty Relations in the European Parliament 1952–2024: Between Cooperative and Adversarial Politics

  This paper examines trends in relations between party groups in the European Parliament since its inception, with a particular focus on the European People’s Party (EPP) and its prospective options for forging coalitions in the coming tenth legislative term. First, it traces the evolution of the two faces of intra-parliamentary relations in the European Parliament since its early days: cooperative and adversarial politics. Cooperation between the ‘core’ groups of the Socialists, Liberals and Christian Democrats has been the dominant guiding principle. The historical analysis explains why the European Parliament follows a different logic than most national parliaments and illustrates how this cooperation has played out.

  The continued existence and relevance of the parliamentary core is demonstrated next. Despite a decline in the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and EPP groups’ seat shares. the core has persisted and remained relevant. The analysis of data obtained by calculating two indices, the institutional relevance index and a newly developed political relevance index, demonstrates that, even if the core has shrunk, it has maintained a dominant role in the European Parliament.

  The prospects for the core groups in the tenth term are then considered. Although the EPP would be well-placed to look for new partners and alliances on its own terms, the analysis suggests that embarking on such a course would be fraught with difficulty. The analysis of intra-group cohesion and intergroup agreement data found in the literature highlights the considerable difficulties that The EPP would encounter in pursuing anything more than sporadic cooperation on selected issues with other groups. Even without the S&D group, the EPP’s need to rely on Renew makes durable coalitions with groups such as the European Conservatives and Reformists or Identity and Democracy unlikely because of Renew’s low levels of agreement with these groups.

  It is likely that the European Parliament’s incoming term will witness a continuity in intergroup relations. Therefore, the advantages of more conflictual relations between the core groups are limited, and cooperation can be expected to prevail.

  Luciano Bardi Jacopo Cellini Federico Ottavio Reho Democracy EU Institutions
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  Collaborative

  The Agenda of the New EU Institutional Cycle

  The balances of economic and political influence are changing. Fierce competition, the transformation of the economic interdependencies into a weapon, the return of conflict to the European continent, are only some of the global challenges that require solutions. The new institutional cycle in the European Union begins in this complex environment. What are the main tasks, how to meet the challenges, what are the dilemmas that need to be resolved? The answers to this questions are not unequivocal. However, it is obvious that there is a growing need for greater coherence and coordination in solving complex problems. The analysis of the dilemmas that the European Union has to resolve lead to several key themes: first, how to achieve and guarantee economic security without succumbing to the temptation of protectionism; second, how to achieve a balance between the ambitious goals of the green transition and the need to increase the competitiveness of the European economy; thirdly, how to combine the geopolitical imperative to support the candidate countries and their EU membership with the requirements for strict implementation of the criteria, as well and with the real preparation of the European Union to accept new members; and last but not least how to combine the need for huge investments for the green and digital transition and at the same time to observe financial discipline. This joint publication of the Martens Centre and the Hanns Seidel Office in Bulgaria, with the cooperation of the University of Sofia “St. Kliment Ohridski” addresses all of these issues and formulates clear goals and policy recommendations for a thriving European Union.

  EU Institutions
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  Research Papers

  Immigration to Europe: The Big Picture for the EU and Its Member States

  Who are the migrants living in the EU? Who has arrived here over the past 10 years? And to what extent have these migrants integrated? This paper provides answers based on the data on foreign-born residents, first residence permit data, statistics on first asylum requests and information on temporary protection for Ukrainians. It includes a number of novel data breakdowns.

  The main finding is that over the past 10 years, about 50% of all people immigrating to the EU have been admitted for humanitarian reasons. Some 27% arrived as marriage migrants or for family reunion purposes. The number of those admitted for employment was just 17%. Notably, a third of all immigrants coming to the EU during the past 10 years arrived in 2022.

  The paper shows that labour market outcomes depend to some extent on the structure of migration flows. Mobile EU citizens usually move for reasons of employment. Third-country nationals residing in the EU have much lower employment rates and a significantly higher risk of working below their skill level. Those third-country nationals admitted as refugees, for family reunion reasons or as marriage migrants are less likely to integrate into EU labour markets. This is particularly true for female migrants.

  Throughout the EU, native workforces are shrinking. Migrants can only compensate for the emerging gaps if their talents and skills are compatible with Europe’s needs. This necessitates the admission of non-EU migrants based on their skills acquired abroad and a rapid recognition of these skills, or the massive retraining of migrants who do not meet the necessary criteria. In any case, European societies will have to put more emphasis on the integration of migrants and their EU-born children.

  Rainer Muenz Jemal Yaryyeva Vít Novotný EU Member States Immigration Integration Labour Migration Refugees
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Defence Extended

  When an idea like the defence community re-emerges regularly over the course of 70 years but is never realised, what does this tell us? The message is, first, that the idea is backed by a strong rationale that does not allow us simply to shelve it and move on; but also, that the preconditions for its implementation have been absent.

  This extended version of the 7Ds Defence allows the many Martens Centre experts to provide a truly comprehensive understanding of the challenges facing Europe in the sphere of defence, and deliver detailed recommendations on how better policies could be formulated.

  Adérito Vicente Alessandro Marrone Christian Mölling Daniel Fiott Ionela Ciolan Klaus Welle Michael Benhamou Mihai Chihaia Paola Tessari Steven Blockmans Ionela Ciolan Klaus Welle Defence EU Member States Foreign Policy Security
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  Other

  Ambitions and Limits: The Deepening Security Dialogue Between Japan and the European Union

  The European Union and Japan are increasing their exchanges on security issues and have the ambition to expand possible areas of cooperation despite limitations. The joint statement published at the end of the EU-Japan summit in 2023 lists a series of important domains including economic security, cyber threats, human security but also maritime security. This resolution results from a convergence of threat perception regarding the role of China and of Russia. The US factor also plays a role regarding the uncertainties of Washington’s future engagement in Europe but also in Asia. Despite these evolutions, and ambitious declarations regarding a future security and defence cooperation agreement, limitations in the role both Japan and the EU can play in terms of hard security must be taken into account.

  Valérie Niquet Asia Foreign Policy
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  Policy Briefs

  Enhancing Election Integrity by Strengthening EU Defences Against Disinformation

  Digital platforms play a pivotal role in the dissemination of disinformation: their vast reach and engagement-driven algorithms are leveraged to spread misleading content. This makes the digital platform an extremely powerful media tool, able to have a huge impact on socio-economic and political relationships, including elections, and on the questioning of fundamental principles, such as democracy. Digital platforms have already been used several times to manipulate elections. Such platforms operate with significantly less regulation than traditional media, which have historically been subject to stricter oversight to ensure the accuracy and reliability of information. This disparity in regulatory standards underscores the importance of developing and implementing more robust regulatory frameworks for digital platforms in order to mitigate the spread of disinformation and protect the integrity of public discourse. Rigorous regulation of online media and Internet platforms is needed, as well as the continual raising of public awareness of disinformation.

  This policy brief has three main objectives: (1) to analyse the existing components of the EU’s strategy to combat disinformation, particularly the Digital Services Act, which provides the legal framework for digital services, and the Code of Practice on Disinformation; (2) to identify the key limitations and challenges of the current regulations; and (3) to develop policy recommendations and measures to overcome these limitations and address the threat of disinformation in upcoming elections. The brief emphasises the urgency of implementing the developed policy recommendations and measures before upcoming elections and the need for a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder approach to safeguard the integrity of democratic processes, prevent the spread of disinformation, and ensure fair and transparent elections across the EU.

  Alexander Romănishyn Dimitar Lilkov Digital Elections
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds In Depth

  This booklet represents the latest step in the ‘7Ds’ project by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies — the official political foundation of the EPP — and is the fruit of a collective effort led by Mr Klaus Welle, Chairman of the Martens Centre Academic Council and former Secretary General of the European Parliament.

  In 2023, the Martens Centre published the strategy document 7Ds for Sustainability: 175 Proposals for the Next Legislature, which contains concrete proposals aimed at future-proofing EU policy in seven crucial areas: Debt, Decarbonisation, Defence, Democracy, Demography, De-risking globalisation and Digitalisation.

  Sustainability was chosen as the guiding principle to ensure that the policies reconcile the needs of both the present and the future, and systematically include the interests of the next generations.

  This text has already inspired reflection on what to do over the next five years. The discussions leading to it were based on Christian Democrat and conservative thinking and the available in-house expertise of the Martens Centre.

  For the next phase of intense discussions about the programme to be implemented during the 2024–9 legislature, the Martens Centre invited renowned external experts to put forward their own, more extensive proposals based on the original document, thereby deepening the available expertise.

  This led to seven ‘In Depth’ publications which were launched last April. As the new legislature has just begun, we are now offering you a consolidated version of these seven papers, preceded by an article written by Chairman Welle in 2023 to explain the rationale behind the entire project.

  We hope that these proposals will help to clarify the way forward at a critical juncture, when the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are negotiating on and finalising their strategic priorities.

  Mikuláš Dzurinda
  Martens Centre President

  Klaus Welle
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  Other

  Fortifying Economic Security: The EU’s Response to China’s Risk 

  This paper delves into the European Union’s approach to safeguarding its economic security in relation to its principal trade partner, the People’s Republic of China. Structured into four sections, the analysis begins by examining challenges and risks possessed by the PRC and offers an overview of positions on de-risking from China and interests of various stakeholders. The second chapter provides an overview of the current and future economic security instruments of the EU and selected EU member states. To broaden the horizon of existing policy frameworks, third chapter lists some of the lessons in de-risking policies from like-minded democracies Japan, the United States, and Taiwan. Finally, the paper concludes by presenting concrete policy recommendations for EU institutions, intended to fortify the economic resilience of the bloc.

  Jakub Janda Marcin Jerzewski Zuzana Košková David Toman China Foreign Policy Globalisation
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  Policy Briefs

  Explaining the Rise of the Radical Right in Europe

  Over the past few decades, the radical right has been the most researched political family in Europe. Consequently, a significant amount of literature has been produced that explores the conceptual, theoretical and empirical dimensions underlying the rise of these political parties. This review article aims to assess the current trends, debates and level of understanding in the academic literature by examining three key questions. What are radical-right parties? How can their electoral successes be explained? What are the consequences of their rise for national and European politics? Although terminology and definitions may differ, radical-right ideology consistently includes authoritarianism, nationalism and opposition to liberal democracy. While their economic positions may be quite diverse, they find common ground on issues such as immigration and tradition. Explanations for the rise of the radical right focus on what attracts voters (demand-side explanations) and on how the parties themselves creatively use the political opportunity structures to gain influence (supply-side explanations). Relations between the radical right and the mainstream parties, as well as the strategies used to counter competitors, have substantial effects on the nature of party competition.

  Wojciech Gagatek Federico Ottavio Reho Democracy Political Parties Populism
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  Collaborative

  Are the Mainstream Parties in Europe, Germany and Austria crumbling? Political Parties as Decisive Actors in Liberal Democracies

  This article was first published in German in Khol, Karner, Sobotka, Rausch-Amon and Ofner (eds.), Österreichisches Jahrbuch für Politik 2023, Wien 2023. All rights reserved with the Politische Akademie Wien.

  Complaints about the decline of political parties are part of the everyday political wisdom of Western democracies. If this were indeed true, it would threaten the existence of parliamentary democracies. To this day, parties are its most important political actors. A closer look, however, shows that, despite all the dramatic changes in modern Western societies, the importance of political parties remains undiminished and that no convincing alternatives have yet developed that could take over central functions of parties, such as elite recruitment or program development. Nevertheless, the need for adaptation and modernisation of party organisations remains. The comparatively young European Political Parties play a unique role. As party parties, they sometimes differ significantly from national parties. However, they play a central role in strengthening democracy at the European level and in the democratisation of new member states.

  Peter Hefele Democracy EU Member States Political Parties
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  Policy Briefs

  Coming out of the Shadows: The European Stability Mechanism and Euro Area Governance

  The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is well suited to having a larger role in the euro area governance framework. During the euro-area debt crisis, financial pressures were eased by ESM loans and many reforms were implemented that targeted former policy mistakes. However, the ESM’s public image is tainted due to a political debate that is (unduly) critical of the fact that financial support is conditional on the implementation of reforms. Currently, the ESM lacks the instruments to support countries with relatively sound economic policy fundamentals.

  But, an ESM instrument appropriate to this type of support is to be created with an envisaged ESM reform. The reform would introduce a changed precautionary credit line (PCCL). This would provide general access to an ESM loan without the respective country necessarily drawing on it. Such a precaution would be intended to calm the financial markets should they begin to doubt the debt sustainability of a country. The new PCCL would not entail reform prescriptions by the ESM (ex post conditionality) but would require sound economic policy fundamentals as a precondition (ex ante conditionality).

  Choosing to use the ESM is a better way to tackle the current challenges than relying on the European Central Bank with its overly lax Transmission Protection Instrument, as appears to be the current choice. While this instrument might calm financial markets for some time, its overly generous application would reduce incentives for sound economic policy. On top of this, lax reform of the Stability and Growth Pact could also carry the danger that public debts rise further. In the end, this could result in the economic situation deteriorating in a dangerous way. With economic policies diverging widely from the course the euro area governance framework provides for, letting the European Central Bank intervene in the financial markets would be increasingly difficult to justify legally. In this case, the danger of a sovereign default and of an escalating financial crisis in highly indebted countries could loom.

  Jürgen Matthes Eoin Drea Economy Eurozone Macroeconomics
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  Policy Briefs

  The Future of European Development Cooperation: A Centre–Right Perspective

  When combined, the EU and its member states rank as the second-largest donor of global development aid. Yet, there is hardly any public debate about the effectiveness, or even political legitimacy, of this policy field. The competition with ‘new’ donors such as China and India has raised fundamental questions about whether the concept of development as it has been pursued over the last 60 years, should undergo a complete revision and whether the traditional understanding of development itself needs to be abandoned.

  This brief develops a new conceptual framework from a centre–right perspective to critically review current policies and suggest new approaches. If the established system continues, we will see a further delegitimisation of this important field of international cooperation and a reduction in the global influence of the EU.

  Peter Hefele Samuel Crooks Development Foreign Policy
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  Other

  EU-Taiwan Ties in a New Reality: Time for an Upgrade

  “To preserve peace, stability, and the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is key, not just for the security and prosperity of the region, but also for ours”, the EU’s High Representative Josep Borrell said in his address to the European Parliament in September 2022. This marked a year since the EP adopted its first stand-alone report on EU-Taiwan political relations and cooperation, raising key European concerns about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, including security, peace and stability, and threats to the rules-based international order. The resolution urged the bloc to intensify bilateral relations and “pursue a comprehensive and enhanced partnership under the guidance of the EU’s One China Policy”.

  These developments capture the new reality in EU-Taiwan relations, marked by an unprecedented level of European awareness of Taiwan’s strategic relevance to the bloc’s interests, seen in the context of efforts to rebalance relationswithChina. With the central balance of international power shifting from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific, and with the US-China rivalry intensifying, Taiwan’s relevance has recently increased. In light of China’s support for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, Taiwan’s importance as a frontline democracy has also grown. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s warning “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow”, was a sign that regional states in the Indo-Pacific are reassessing their defence positions.

  Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy Foreign Policy
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  Collaborative

  Resilience Unveiled: Shaping the Future of Central Europe

  In 2024, Czechia marks twenty-five years of NATO membership and twenty years in the EU, milestones that have significantly reshaped its political, economic, and security landscape, alongside the broader Central European region. This publication examines the implications of NATO and EU enlargement for Central European countries, highlighting Czechia’s pivotal role. It explores the region’s current geopolitical and socio-economic challenges, with a focus on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the complexities of regional security. The volume addresses cultural exchanges, economic cooperation, and the potential for enhanced diplomatic ties, especially between Czechia, Austria, and Germany. It also discusses the risks of democratic backsliding, low pluralism, and the under-representation of women in politics. The publication begins with an essay by former diplomat Jakub Forst-Battaglia and includes seven chapters that cover resilience strategies, regional cooperation, external influences on democracy, disinformation, migration, and political representation. This comprehensive analysis offers insights into Central Europe’s role in addressing contemporary European challenges.

  Lucie Tungul Central and Eastern Europe
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  European View

  Navigating demographic dynamics: Strategies for tomorrow

  Loredana Teodorescu Žiga Turk Steven Van Hecke Giovanni Maddalena Demography
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  IN BRIEF

  The Athens Effect: 5 Reasons Why France (and the EU) Should go Greek on Debt

  Greece has long been viewed as the weakest member of the Euro Area. Its three rescue packages, organised initially by the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sparked an unprecedented decade of economic and political turbulence. The austerity (and declining living standards) associated with the bailout period came to define the structural flaws of the Euro currency. For a time in the mid-2010s, Greece’s survival in the Euro was irrevocably entwined with political events in both Brussels and Berlin. Yet, throughout this period Greek public support for both EU and Eurozone membership remained high.

  With the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, Greece’s debt to GDP ratio was pushed to a historic high of 207%, higher even than during the bailout crises of the preceding decade.

  However, the past four years have seen a remarkable transformation of Greece’s long term debt sustainability. As of Quarter 3, 2023 Greece’s debt stood at 165% of GDP – a decline of over 42 percentage points, or over a fifth – in just three years. Longer-term projections indicate that debt to GDP levels will continue to fall and may achieve a lower level than Italy and France by the end of the decade.

  In 2023, Greece – for the first time since 2010 – reattained investment grade status from three of the four biggest ratings agencies. Latest forecasts indicate continued strong debt reduction driven by moderate growth and sustained primary budget surpluses. Debt to GDP levels are likely to fall under 150% in late 2024/early 2025. Despite continued structural challenges – low productivity, demographic profile and increasing environmental risks – Greece is still projected to outperform its Euro Area peers in the medium to long term.

  Eoin Drea EU Member States Macroeconomics
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  Ukraine

  Russian Economy: Still Standing, But Stuck

  This analysis is a follow-up to the comprehensive report “From Bad to Worse: The Continuing Effects of Sanctions on Russia”, which was published by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in June 2023. We continue to analyse the nuanced effects of Western sanctions against Russia two years since the beginning of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and, in contrast to the widespread international optimistic assessment of “Russia’s economic resilience” to sanctions, paint a very different picture: behind the facade of a handful of positive macroeconomic indicators like strong GDP growth and low unemployment, Russia’s actual economic reality is much bleaker, and the situation is getting worse. 

  This paper intends to provide Western policymakers with realistic in-depth analysis of multiple effects of sanctions on the Russian economy, helping to identify areas where sanctions are truly working, and Putin’s main economic vulnerabilities, an un-derstanding of which is crucial to further strengthening the Western response to Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and limiting Russia’s ability to finance the war. 

  Vladimir Milov Economy EU-Russia Ukraine
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Digitalisation in Depth

  Alongside the Green Deal and the first steps towards a Defence Union, creating a single European digital space has been a key project of the outgoing European Commission (2019–24). This has involved establishing an interconnected set of rules and regulations aimed at creating a level playing field for competition among European and international companies, enhancing the rights of Europe’s ‘digital citizens’, protecting the integrity of democratic institutions and processes, and promoting global cooperation in the digital sphere.

  In 2023, the Martens Centre published its 7Ds for Sustainability strategy document. This text comprised 175 proposals for the next legislature to future-proof EU policy in the areas of debt, decarbonisation, defence, democracy, demography, de-risking globalisation, and digitalisation. Sustainability was chosen as the guiding principle to ensure that the policies reconcile the needs of both the present and the future, and systematically include the interests of the next generations.

  The 7Ds document has already inspired reflection on what to do over the next five years. These discussions are based on Christian Democrat and conservative thinking and the available in-house expertise of the Martens Centre. For the next phase of intense discussions about the programme to be implemented during the 2024–9 legislature, the Martens Centre has invited renowned external experts to put forward their own, more extensive proposals based on the original document, thereby deepening the available expertise. It is hoped that these proposals, published at the beginning of April 2024, will help to clarify the way forward at a critical juncture, when the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are negotiating on and finalising their strategic priorities.

  Dimitar Lilkov Anastas Punev Žiga Turk Amelia Andersdotter Milda Kaklauskaitė Peter Hefele Dimitar Lilkov Klaus Welle Digital
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – De-risking Globalisation in Depth

  Several crises over the last two decades, including the Covid-19 pandemic and, most recently, the Russian war against Ukraine, have shown the vulnerability of global supply-chain systems and have shattered illusions about ever-progressing globalisation. This has forced the EU to rethink its traditional reliance on and support for multilateralism and global cooperation, which had led to an over-dependence on certain countries and producers in crucial fields such as raw materials and chemical products. Over the last couple of years, the Union has responded to these developments by creating a series of policies and launching initiatives to de- risk its economic relations and reduce the potential for political blackmail.

  In 2023, the Martens Centre published its 7Ds for Sustainability strategy document. This text comprised 175 proposals for the next legislature to future-proof EU policy in the areas of debt, decarbonisation, defence, democracy, demography, de-risking globalisation, and digitalisation. Sustainability was chosen as the guiding principle to ensure that the policies reconcile the needs of both the present and the future, and systematically include the interests of the next generations.

  The 7Ds document has already inspired reflection on what to do over the next five years. These discussions are based on Christian Democrat and conservative thinking and the available in-house expertise of the Martens Centre. For the next phase of intense discussions about the programme to be implemented during the 2024–9 legislature, the Martens Centre has invited renowned external experts to put forward their own, more extensive proposals based on the original document, thereby deepening the available expertise. It is hoped that these proposals, published at the beginning of April 2024, will help to clarify the way forward at a critical juncture, when the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are negotiating on and finalising their strategic priorities.

  Peter Hefele Jakub Janda Roberta N. Haar Horst Heitz Peter Hefele Klaus Welle Globalisation
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Demography in Depth

  The European welfare state is being challenged by new realities. People’s outlooks on life have changed dramatically over the past decades, including their views on religion, the family and work. The consequences of these societal changes include rising life expectancies and stagnating fertility rates that are insufficient for the natural increase of the population. Humanity’s efforts to curtail overpopulation and increase longevity have caused the ageing of our societies, a trend that has been under way for decades.

  In 2023, the Martens Centre published its 7Ds for Sustainability strategy document. This text comprised 175 proposals for the next legislature to future-proof EU policy in the areas of debt, decarbonisation, defence, democracy, demography, de-risking globalisation, and digitalisation. Sustainability was chosen as the guiding principle to ensure that the policies reconcile the needs of both the present and the future, and systematically include the interests of the next generations.

  The 7Ds document has already inspired reflection on what to do over the next five years. These discussions are based on Christian Democrat and conservative thinking and the available in-house expertise of the Martens Centre. For the next phase of intense discussions about the programme to be implemented during the 2024–9 legislature, the Martens Centre has invited renowned external experts to put forward their own, more extensive proposals based on the original document, thereby deepening the available expertise. It is hoped that these proposals, published at the beginning of April 2024, will help to clarify the way forward at a critical juncture, when the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are negotiating on and finalising their strategic priorities.

  Rainer Muenz Arnstein Aassve Tado Jurić Anna Matysiak Anna Kurowska Daniela Vono de Vilhena Vít Novotný Klaus Welle Demography EU Member States
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Democracy in Depth

  Democracy is the beating heart and core of the EU’s identity, along with peace. From its inception in the aftermath of the Second World War, European integration has been open only to democratic countries that respect the rule of law and fundamental freedoms. It has also played an essential role in democratising, stabilising and integrating new countries, from Greece, Spain and Portugal in the 1970s and 1980s to the post-Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s and 2000s.

  As the EU acquires new powers and competences to manage new challenges in the most diverse fields, it will be necessary to improve the quality of EU democracy, the legitimacy of its institutions, and their responsiveness to the needs and preferences of the EU member states and citizens. Moreover, democratic values and institutions face new challenges, such as disinformation, polarisation and a lack of trust in political elites—all in a world of systemic rivalry.

  In 2023, the Martens Centre published its 7Ds for Sustainability strategy document. This text comprised 175 proposals for the next legislature to future-proof EU policy in the areas of debt, decarbonisation, defence, democracy, demography, de-risking globalisation, and digitalisation. Sustainability was chosen as the guiding principle to ensure that the policies reconcile the needs of both the present and the future, and systematically include the interests of the next generations.

  The 7Ds document has already inspired reflection on what to do over the next five years. These discussions are based on Christian Democrat and conservative thinking and the available in-house expertise of the Martens Centre. For the next phase of intense discussions about the programme to be implemented during the 2024–9 legislature, the Martens Centre has invited renowned external experts to put forward their own, more extensive proposals based on the original document, thereby deepening the available expertise. It is hoped that these proposals, published at the beginning of April 2024, will help to clarify the way forward at a critical juncture, when the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are negotiating on and finalising their strategic priorities.

  Federico Ottavio Reho Adriaan Schout Anthony Teasdale Nikolaos Tzifakis Wouter Wolfs Nicolai Von Ondarza Federico Ottavio Reho Klaus Welle Democracy EU Member States
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Decarbonisation in Depth

  With its 2019 Green Deal and the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, the EU aims to become the most influential global actor when it comes to advancing the international agenda on decarbonisation and the fight against climate change. Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly shifted political priorities and resources, making the commitments pledged in the previous decade even more challenging to achieve. At the same time, resilience and economic security have become key criteria for the future transformation.

  In 2023, the Martens Centre published its 7Ds for Sustainability strategy document. This text comprised 175 proposals for the next legislature to future-proof EU policy in the areas of debt, decarbonisation, defence, democracy, demography, de-risking globalisation, and digitalisation. Sustainability was chosen as the guiding principle to ensure that the policies reconcile the needs of both the present and the future, and systematically include the interests of the next generations.

  The 7Ds document has already inspired reflection on what to do over the next five years. These discussions are based on Christian Democrat and conservative thinking and the available in-house expertise of the Martens Centre. For the next phase of intense discussions about the programme to be implemented during the 2024–9 legislature, the Martens Centre has invited renowned external experts to put forward their own, more extensive proposals based on the original document, thereby deepening the available expertise. It is hoped that these proposals, published at the beginning of April 2024, will help to clarify the way forward at a critical juncture, when the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are negotiating on and finalising their strategic priorities.

  Markus Demary Jarosław Pietras Bernd Weber Frank Umbach Sam Williams Adriana Neligan Peter Hefele Dimitar Lilkov Klaus Welle Energy Environment Sustainability
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Debt in Depth

  Debt is a question of dose. Too much, and you lose your political independence and sovereignty. Too little, and you might miss out on the possibility and necessity of building infrastructure that facilitates future development.

  In 2023, the Martens Centre published its 7Ds for Sustainability strategy document. This text comprised 175 proposals for the next legislature to future-proof EU policy in the areas of debt, decarbonisation, defence, democracy, demography, de-risking globalisation, and digitalisation. Sustainability was chosen as the guiding principle to ensure that the policies reconcile the needs of both the present and the future, and systematically include the interests of the next generations.

  The 7Ds document has already inspired reflection on what to do over the next five years. These discussions are based on Christian Democrat and conservative thinking and the available in-house expertise of the Martens Centre. For the next phase of intense discussions about the programme to be implemented during the 2024–9 legislature, the Martens Centre has invited renowned external experts to put forward their own, more extensive proposals based on the original document, thereby deepening the available expertise. It is hoped that these proposals, published at the beginning of April 2024, will help to clarify the way forward at a critical juncture, when the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are negotiating on and finalising their strategic priorities.

  Fredrik N. G. Andersson Eoin Drea Lars Jonung Jürgen Matthes Adriaan Schout Alain Lamassoure Eoin Drea Klaus Welle Economy Growth Macroeconomics
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  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2023

  Reflecting on the past year, it seems to me that the best word to describe 2023 is “turbulent”. While the war in Ukraine continued to cast a long shadow and question the very foundations of European security, other challenges, such as the energy crisis and rising inflation, tested the economic and social fabric of our Union.

  In this turbulent year, the Martens Centre remained steadfast in its dedication to Wilfried Martens’ vision of a strong, united, and prosperous Europe. As we commemorated the 10th anniversary of his passing, his ideals of dialogue, understanding, and collaboration resonated more powerfully than ever. Throughout 2023, our activities reflected this commitment.

  Margherita Movarelli Theo Larue Centre-Right EU Member States European Union Leadership
• 

  Research Papers

  Did Secularisation Kill God? Changes in Religiosity and Values Among Natives and Migrants in Europe

  This study provides an assessment of the disparities in secularisation between the migrant and native populations in the EU. Although religion is a force that continues to shape societal culture, secularisation—the progressive autonomisation of societal sectors from religious meaning and institutions—is gaining strength across the bloc.

  The study, which relies on scholarly works and quantitative data from survey institutes, explores variations across different member countries and societal groups. It finds that north-western, mainly Protestant, EU countries are the most secularised, while eastern, mainly Orthodox, ones exhibit higher levels of religiosity and more conservative values. Overall across the EU, immigrant populations exhibit higher levels of religiosity and conservatism compared to native populations. Muslims prove more resistant than any other religious group to secularisation and acculturation processes, even across generations. Ukrainian nationals manifest a unique pattern of increased religiosity alongside increased acceptance of secular values.

  The study advocates for policies that promote secularism and socio-cultural assimilation in order to foster societal cohesion while celebrating diversity. The centre–right in the EU should work towards a common framework of secularism, while respecting national differences. It should balance the legal and moral duties towards immigrants on the one hand, and the protection of state law and respect for individual rights on the other hand.

  Tommaso Virgili Benedetta Panchetti Vít Novotný Migration Religion Society Values
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  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds – Defence in Depth

  When an idea like the defence community re-emerges regularly over the course of 70 years but is never
  realised, what does this tell us? The message is, first, that the idea is backed by a strong rationale that
  does not allow us simply to shelve it and move on; but also, that the preconditions for its implementation
  have been absent.

  This paper brings together the insights of many Martens Centre experts in order to better understand what Europe needs to develop its defence policy and to how to implement the necessary steps.

  Michael Benhamou Klaus Welle Ionela Ciolan Steven Blockmans Daniel Fiott Mihai Chihaia Paola Tessari Alessandro Marrone Christian Mölling Adérito Vicente Ionela Ciolan Klaus Welle Defence EU Member States Foreign Policy Security
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  Collaborative

  Attitudes towards the EU among the Transylvanian Hungarians

  The research project is a common initiative with Kós Károly Akadémia Foundation. The main aim of the research is to achieve a better understanding of factors determining the changing attitudes toward the European Union (and its institution) among the ethnic Hungarian population in Romania. The current analysis aims to present an overall view of the attitudes of Hungarians inTransylvania towards the EU and about its changes between 2014, 2019 and 2023. 

  Romania joined the EU in 2007. The Hungarian community within Romania has a particular attitude towards the EU and has specific expectations from it. This analysis deals mainly with these attitudes and expectations. According to the census in 2021, there are about one million ethnic Hungarians in Romania representing 6 percent of the country’s permanent population. In the European Parliament elections, the Hungarian community in Transylvania has elected two deputies: in 2007, the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (RMDSZ) won two seats and one independent candidate; in 2009 the RMDSZ won three seats and in 2014 and 2019 sent two members of the EP in Brussels. 

  The report is based on three surveys carried out on a representative sample of Hungarian population in Transylvania, Romania. The surveys used a similar methodology (same sampling methodology, same questions) to elicit opinions expressed by ethnic Hungarians in Transylvania. The research aimed to compare the opinions of Hungarians in Transylvania with the population of Romania and other member states. The three main reference points for interpreting attitudes were the EU averages, the data for Romania and for Hungary, respectively.

  The main subject areas of our analysis are the following, among others: general social climate, main challenges for the population, general direction of the EU (geopolitical context), trust in the EU, opinions about accession to the EU, its benefits and disadvantages.

  
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• 

  Collaborative

  Transatlantic Trade and Technology: Partners or Rivals?

  After years of mounting trade tensions and a tumultuous Trump presidency, new administrations came to power in both Brussels and Washington determined to work together. In 2021, they launched the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC), promising to boost bilateral trade and strengthen cooperation on pressing technological challenges. since the TTC was launched with fanfare in Pittsburgh, the forum has helped foster the revival of transatlantic purpose, first by combatting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and second by agreeing on the need to “derisk” rather than “decouple” from China.

  Entering 2024, however, challenges are mounting. The two sides are sparring over clean technology subsidies and moving at different speeds on tech regulation. Europe pursues a “digital sovereignty” agenda that discriminates against leading US tech companies. The US invests in a new industrial policy, offering billions of subsidies to bring home high-tech manufacturing. Elections scheduled before the year-end on both sides of the Atlantic could prove divisive, particularly if isolationist leaders come to power in Washington.

  The TTC can help reduce the risks — if reformed and strengthened. The forum must be streamlined and tasked with a few realistic yet ambitious goals. It should engage a broad range of stakeholders, with the participation of the European Parliament, the US Congress, and high-level business leaders.

  On substance, the TTC must align the two powers on tough issues, not shy away from disagreement. It represents an ideal platform to forge a common position on how to “derisk” from China, create a new transatlantic green tech alliance that limits domestic subsidies to clean technologies, and construct a common semiconductor supply chain. Despite their divergent domestic approaches to regulating artificial intelligence, the US and the EU still can construct guardrails ensuring safe use of the breakthrough technology.

  This paper is based on a careful review of official documents and more than a dozen interviews with officials, analysts, and business representatives in both Brussels and Washington. The interviews were conducted on Chatham House background rules, to allow for honest discussion. By bringing together the Brussels-based Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, our goal was to understand, synthesize, encourage, and improve this promising joint endeavor.

  Dimitar Lilkov Clara Riedenstein Bill Echikson Technology Trade Transatlantic
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  Collaborative

  Challenges of Belarusian Migration in the EU

  The revolution launched in Belarus in 2020 was not pro-European or pro-Russian. Many people, for various reasons, dared to challenge the strongest and most brutal dictatorship in Europe: a dictatorship that had been building a system of oppression for 25 years. In any case, their reasons related to natural rights and recognised human rights: the right to participate in the governance of one’s state, the right to have no torture or disproportionate use of force, the right to peaceful assembly, the right to a fair trial, etc. Therefore, it is clear that Belarusians, who had a choice — either to go behind bars or to flee from injustice — chose to move to a country where respect for human rights was not only declared, but also enforced. Among the EU countries, the closest neighbours of Belarus — Lithuania and Poland — turned out to be the most popular among migrants.

  Lithuanians and Poles represented by their own governments demonstrated good-neighbourly behaviour: by letting hundreds of thousands of Belarusians in, they did enough to ease the situation of those who lost their homes through no fault of their own. The governments of these countries were guided by international norms implemented in their national legal systems, such as the norms of refugee treatment and anti-discrimination. However, Belarusians in Poland and Lithuania face discrimination on the grounds of their origin from time to time. This report describes how serious and systematic these facts are, in what domains they are manifested, and most importantly, why discrimination happens and how it can be fought.

  Eastern Europe EU Member States Migration
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  Policy Briefs

  Brexit: Navigating the Politics of Discord

  The narrow victory for the Brexit campaign in the 2016 referendum campaign promised to reverse the slippage in British economic performance and global influence by quitting the ‘failed’ EU project. Yet barely two years after what Brexiteers celebrated as ‘Independence Day’, the bold promises made by the ‘Leave’ side in the referendum campaign have not—or have not yet—materialised. The national mood now, as evidenced in public opinion surveys, is increasingly unconvinced that Brexit is the answer to the UK’s current problems or impending challenges.

  The paper examines how the Brexit that was promised was always unrealisable because it naively overlooked the marked asymmetry of power between the EU27 and its former member state. The issues raised by the UK government’s preferred ‘hard Brexit’ were bound to face serious challenges that could not be wished away by simplistic ‘cherry-picking’ solutions. During the withdrawal negotiations the three British prime ministers (in just five years) preferred hubris to pragmatism and fantasy over fact, with the eventual outcome being one that was far removed from what was promised in the referendum. Indeed, Brexit has brought the UK serious challenges and unanticipated consequences, both domestically and in terms of its external policy.

  These were harsh lessons that successive British governments needed to face and that they avoided by defying the realities of hard power. The latest incumbent in Downing Street has finally begun to confront these unpalatable truths, acknowledging momentous challenges in the near and far abroad that point to the need to reset UK–EU relations. The time is not quite right for this though, as Brexit was a seismic, even a traumatic event for both sides. For that very reason the recent improvement in relations by no means ensures a prompt return to the status quo ante. It does however point to a more constructive relationship.

  Michael O’Neill Eoin Drea Brexit European Union
• 

  Ukraine

  Ukraine as a Locus of Identity: Why History and Culture Matter

  War between Russia and Ukraine broke out on the 24 February 2022. Since then, most of the commentary has focused primarily on geopolitical and economic issues. This paper seeks to bring to the debate the dimensions of history, culture and identity. It argues that these remain crucial to understanding this war and central to the EU as it formulates a way forward.

  The Russian narrative, as espoused by President Vladimir Putin, seeks to depict Ukrainians, Russians and Belarusians as one people—‘the largest state in Europe’—whose origin can be traced to Ancient Rus, with Kyiv as the ‘mother of all Russian cities’. Ukraine’s narrative, on the other hand, has been one of gradually trying to distance itself from the Russian domain. In an attempt to reshape public discourse and perception, the country has been implementing laws promoting ‘de-Stalinisation’ and ‘de-Communisation’.

  While issues of a political, economic and defensive nature remain fundamental, these debates point to the ever-growing presence of issues concerning history, culture and identity. As the war in Ukraine shows, engaging with such debates need not be considered a death knell for the EU, but an opportunity to forge a more realistic and rounded Union.

  Thus, this paper recommends that the EU continues to recognise that historical debates can lie at the base of contemporary crises. Furthermore, it argues that the EU needs to show coherence, that it can exploit its soft-power potential better, that greater civic consciousness should be encouraged and that the complementarity between the nation and Europe should be emphasised.

  André P. Debattista Federico Ottavio Reho EU-Russia Society Ukraine
• 

  Collaborative

  Finland in the European Union– What next?

  EU membership was the most significant foreign and security policy decision in Finland’s history, facilitating NATO accession and seating Finland at the table with major Western powers. Current and future governments ought to recognise the significance of European integration and present a more tangible political vision for the future of the EU.

  The world system is changing, and the EU needs to adapt externally but also internally. In the debate on possible reforms, Finland should not shy away from integration but needs to also look after its interests. Due to the war in Ukraine, the questions related to the American commitment to Europe’s security as was the case previously, and global developments in security and defence will play a stronger role. 

  Finland has joined NATO, which gives it new perspectives, possibilities, and responsibilities. While NATO will be a major platform for security and defence cooperation, the EU will have increasing importance. Finland, as a country on Russia’s border, has a crucial role in leading that debate and is also a driver of EU defence cooperation within the NATO framework.

  Security in all its dimensions will play a more important role in the future, and not least due to the cloud that US domestic politics are casting over transatlantic defence cooperation, there is a strong interest to develop the EU as a security provider. As the articles in this publication point out, Finland’s border with Russia is not only a border of two states but a border of two global systems and views which are challenging one another. As a result, increasingly, what comes next for the European Union is no longer for Finland to find out but for Finland to define. 

  EU Member States European Union Future
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Freedom Must Be Better Armed Than Tyranny: Boosting Research and Industrial Capacity for European Defence

  In furtherance of this research project, Garvan Walshe developed a mathematical model for estimating the changes in European defence equipment budgets that would be required to meet the Russian threat. It can be accessed for free by clicking here.

  The Russian state is a threat to freedom in Europe and the integrity of the EU. Since 1945 we have relied on the United States to protect freedom on our continent. While it is to be hoped the US will be able to stay involved in the most successful democratic alliance in history, the risk of conflict in Asia, a return to isolationism, or the re-election of Donald Trump is too high for the EU not to develop a defence industrial and technological base (DITB) able to supply Europe’s defence on its own. Such a renewed DITB will furthermore be able to contribute to the collective defence of democracy across the globe and support our friends and allies in the United States and democratic Asia. In the worst case it will allow Europe to defend itself from Russian aggression alone. In the best circumstances it will strengthen the international community of democracies.

  This paper finds that developing such capability is well within the capacity of the EU and its member states and proposes a series of measures by which it can be financed. It analyses the composition of the defence budgets of EDA members between 2017 and 2021, and assesses their levels of defence investment, research and development, and “research and technology” (R&T – fundamental technological research that is itself an input to R&D). It identifies gaps and recommends EU policies and instruments to close them.

  Garvan Walshe Defence European Union Foreign Policy Industry
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  European View

  Sustainable Europe: Cross-cutting strategies for a future-proof Union

  Klaus Welle European Union Sustainability
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Rural Europe: Our Contract with Rural Europe – A Five-Point Plan for Europe’s Heartlands

  The EU is much more than just its cities. Beyond the confines of larger urban centres lies a rich tapestry of towns, villages and open countryside. These are the places whose traditions and resilience have helped define Europe’s way of life for centuries. They are Europe’s heartlands. The EU’s rural and exurban areas account for over 80% of its total area and are home to over 30% of its population. Yet across Europe these communities feel disconnected. They feel detached from an increasingly remote political process—one which, they believe, gives precedence to the priorities of urban decision-makers rather than to the needs of smaller, less vocal communities. In many sectors, particularly in agriculture, people believe that their way of life is threatened by an unending deluge of European and national level regulations. Many feel abandoned by traditional political parties and disorientated by the rapid pace of economic and social change. Europe needs a new approach to rural development because not every town needs to become a technology hub, nor every village a tourist hotspot. Our Contract with Rural Europe provides a Five-Point Plan for Europe’s Heartlands. First, the Green Deal must become a positive partnership for farmers. Second, rural citizens are equal citizens requiring the same connectivity and skills as those living in urban areas. Third, essential rural communities require essential public services. Fourth, youth and quality of life will drive lasting growth. Fifth, the EU needs to get back to basics and start focusing on meeting the day-to-day needs of its rural citizens.

  Eoin Drea Joseph Daul Agriculture EU Member States
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  Collaborative

  Why We Still Need Parties: The Resilience of Europe’s Political Parties Explained

  Certain political “truths” are taken for granted: the story of the decline and even disappearance of political parties in Europe is a famous example. Outdated communication, undemocratic decision-making processes, lack of compelling ideologies, susceptibility to corruption are all criticisms directed towards political parties to explain why they are a relic of the past.

  But, perhaps surprisingly to some, political parties haven’t disappeared. They have remained the core political acteurs in all Western-style democracies. Much acclaimed alternatives such as “movements” or other forms of “direct democracy” had not been able to substitute those old-fashioned institutions from the 19th century.

  How have political parties across Europe reacted to a rapidly changing environment? Are there lessons from different European countries worthy of being adopted by others? How can the legitimacy of Western democratic systems be strengthened, and what specific contribution can political parties make to this? And last but not least, what is the particular role of European political parties as a relatively new type of political actor?

  To find answers to these and many other questions, the International Republican Institute (IRI) has set up an ambitious project for a comparative analysis of selected national party systems across Europe, which the Wilfred Martens Centre for European Studies is pleased to publish. Leading experts from political science, think tanks and parties had been invited to provide a comprehensive insight into the diverse landscape of political parties on the continent.

  Romain Le Quiniou Thibault Muzergues András Braun EU Member States Political Parties
• 

  Collaborative

  International Cooperation in a New Era: the EU’s Quest for Like-Minded Partners – Latin American and Caribbean

  In today’s contested world, the EU´s relations with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are of growing importance. Both have a long-standing strategic partnership, based on shared values, culture and history as well as solid economic ties. With a direct investment stock of 800 billion EUR the EU is by far the largest investor in the region. In the long run, and to be credible, the EU needs to go beyond rhetoric, develop resilient sustainable partnerships, and implement concrete projects, while considering the needs and priorities of its partners, in this case Latin American and Caribbean countries. At the same time, in a new geopolitical era, the EU also must find its position on the global stage and build its “geopolitical identity”.

  In this context, this WMCES-HSS publication addresses some overarching questions and aspects.

  Foreign Policy
• 

  Policy Briefs

  The Power of Opacity: EU Responses to Weaponised Migration

  Orchestrating migration pressure has long been an instrument used by a variety of actors to create leverage, extract concessions, inflict damage on reputations or pursue other hostile intentions. The EU has faced several such attempts. The events organised by the Lukashenka regime in Belarus in 2021, by Türkiye in early 2020 and by Morocco in May 2021 are the most notable. This policy brief argues that the EU has handled recent situations of migration coercion rather well and has the potential to handle them even better in the future. The apparent inconsistency and fluidity of EU action is often subject to criticism in the media, a cause of exasperation for national and EU officials, and perceived as a serious deficiency to be remedied. However, the same policy and operational opacity has significant advantages: it makes the EU an unpredictable target for migration instrumentalisation, presenting adversaries with planning challenges. Commenting on existing Commission proposals, the paper argues the continued unpredictability of EU responses, albeit based on an imperfect legislative status quo, is preferable to EU laws that might constrain the bloc’s room for manoeuvre. 

  Vladimír Šimoňák Vít Novotný Foreign Policy Migration
• 

  The 7Ds

  The 7Ds for Sustainability:  175 Proposals for the Next Legislature

  This paper is the most recent edition of the 7Ds project which was initially released in April 2023, updated after stakeholder consultations.

  The EPP is built on the beliefs of Christian Democratic and Conservative People’s Parties.

  Conservatives know that not every reform is progress. They have shared scepticism towards ideologies, and prefer pragmatic solutions. They abhor the violence of revolutions and realise that existing institutions contain the wisdom of generations.

  Christian Democrats try to balance and reconcile the seemingly irreconcilable: the social market economy, pluralism, federalism, popular parties and centrism. They aim to be the force of reconciliation and moderation in society.

  Both Christian Democrats and Conservatives engage in the defence of the order firmly established in the free part of the European continent after 1945: representative democracy, the rule of law, inviolable human rights and a firm stand against any attempts of illiberal democratic backsliding.

  The Conservative intent to preserve and the Christian Democrat willingness to balance converge in the principle of sustainability. If we wish to preserve, we must find a proper balance between present and future necessities and ensure fairness between generations.

  Sustainability, therefore, has to be the core guiding principle of Christian Democrat and Conservative action across all policy areas.

  Klaus Welle Peter Hefele European Union Leadership Sustainability
• 

  Collaborative

  China’s Influence on the Western Balkans’ EU Accession Process: Synergies and Obstacles

  This study examines the influence of China’s presence and activities on the European Union (EU) integration process of the Western Balkans. Since the Thessaloniki Summit of 2003, only Croatia managed to join the EU, while the other countries in the region remain candidates for membership, with little prospects to join by 2030. The research investigates how China’s approach impacts specific outcomes, both supporting and undermining the EU accession process, chapter by chapter. It also explores the reasons behind these outcomes, including China’s approach, domestic agency, and geopolitical factors. The goal is to provide a comprehensive and cross-country analysis of China’s impact in the region and identify areas where the Western Balkan countries can eliminate or minimise negative consequences, or leverage potential synergies, ultimately aiming to understand the interplay between China’s involvement and the EU integration process in the Western Balkans.

  The presentation of the research findings took place on October 18 in Skopje, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

  China Enlargement Foreign Policy Western Balkans
• 

  Collaborative

  The State of the European Union – A Need for Unity and Solidarity

  This is a joint publication of the Martens Centre and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Bulgaria, and contains the conference proceedings from the common project “The State of the European Union – a Need for Unity and Solidarity” co-organised in cooperation with the University of Sofia “St. Kliment Ohridski” earlier this year. The articles in this publication reflect on four major themes: unity and solidarity in the EU; European identity, education, skills and culture; EU media policy and how to protect freedom of expression in the digital age; and EU enlargement and neighbourhood policies.

  EU Member States European Union
• 

  Collaborative

  A Blueprint For Accelerated Integration and Phasing-In

  Probably the most important attempt to revamp the EU’s enlargement policy in the last decade has been the adoption of the New Methodology for Accession Negotiations in 2020, which has been ambitiously envisaged as a robust framework for accelerated integration of the Western Balkans, which will provide more clarity and a stronger political steer of the accession process.

  Having in mind the main characteristics of “accelerated integration and phasing-in” as
  defined in the official EU documents, the brief analyzes the mechanism both from a policy
  and an institutional perspective.

  Enlargement EU Member States European Union Integration
• 

  Future of Europe

  Middle-Class Concerns and European Challenges: A Data-Driven Study from a Centre–Right Perspective

  This report studies the position, aspirations, expectations and fears of Europe’s middle classes concerning some of the key challenges that the EU is facing. It is based on an extensive online survey carried out in all 27 EU member states. It reveals an acute economic insecurity and fear of falling behind among EU citizens, especially in the lower social strata. It also shows that this crisis of citizens’ expectations and prospects is a threat to political stability, as it feeds into a dangerous crisis of legitimacy and trust in public institutions and political parties. Concerns may be most strongly expressed in the economic field, but also extend to the possible consequences of the war in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical realignments it entails. In particular, the combination of middle-class insecurity and relatively high levels of trust in Russia in parts of Southern and Eastern Europe should be highlighted. However, citizens also think that most challenges can be tackled and reversed through adequate political and policy action. In particular, the centre–right’s approaches to security, immigration and the economy retain great appeal among the European middle classes; there is a need to better connect with the lower middle classes though. Citizens also have a high estimation of the problem-solving capacity of civil-society actors and a relatively high level of trust in the EU. An inclusive narrative addressing European challenges on the basis of safety, stability, justice, freedom and cooperation could help to reassure Europe’s middle classes. Centre–right forces have a fundamental role to play in this process.

  Federico Ottavio Reho Martijn Lampert Panos Papadongonas Centre-Right EU Member States Future of Europe Middle Class
• 

  Collaborative

  Security and Defence Days – Conference Proceedings

  This joint publication is the result of a 2-day conference on Security and Defence in the EU that took place as a common project of Martens Centre and De Gasperi Foundation in June 2022. Four panel discussions took place on “The new strategic concept and the war in Ukraine: charting NATO’s route in a changing geopolitical scenario”; “NATO’s future in uncertain times: a new political direction suited for a new era”; “The new security landscape in Europe, NATO’s Madrid Summit and the European Union”; “Time to invest in Security and Defence: political and technological opportunities in a competitive world”. The conference proceedings are an overview of the main discussion points of the panellists who attended the event.

  Defence Security
• 

  Research Papers

  Why Price Stability Matters

  As of March 2023, overall inflation is declining in Europe. However, core inflation levels continue to remain well above the 2% mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB). In fact, the current bout of inflation should continue to weaken as and when supply-chain disruption and energy shortages abate. If prices should decline somewhat from their recent peak levels, their contribution to inflation would even be negative, that is, they would contribute to lower inflation rates.

  However, there are also factors that will prevent a large and immediate decline in inflation as soon as these scarcities wane. As import and supply prices have risen very strongly in recent months, it will take some time for these price increases to feed through the value chains into the final consumption and consumer prices. This is an important reason why inflation will remain significantly higher than 2% for the next one to two years. However, after this period inflation should come down again to more normal levels, unless significant new price pressures or ‘second-round effects’ occur.

  An important second-round effect would be a rise in inflation expectations among economic actors. This is why the ECB needs to continue to signal its commitment to getting inflation down to its target rate of 2% in the medium term. Another important second-round effect—one that is closely connected to inflation expectations—is the potential for a wage–price spiral. In fact, this represents the largest current danger as it could lead to high inflation becoming much more persistent. Import price increases (and particularly energy price shocks) must not be amplified by further labour cost shocks, but instead the resulting loss of purchasing power must be shared between employees (through lower real wages) and employers (through lower profits, as firms cannot usually fully pass on higher input costs in their sales prices).

  If trade unions force significant labour cost increases to keep real wages constant or even rising, renewed cost shocks would lead to new price pressures for firms and force them to increase their sales prices further. This would most likely lead to a wage–price spiral and would force the ECB to raise interest rates even more, thus increasing the costs of disinflation and the danger of a recession.

  To prevent a wage–price spiral, it is thus high time for macroeconomic coordination between the vari­ous policy actors. Monetary policy should focus on targeting price stability, while wage bargaining and fiscal policy should support monetary policy in this objective. Wage negotiation outcomes should include one-off payments by companies on top of normal wage increases. One-off payments would target purchas­ing power losses but would, at the same time, prevent a long-term increase in labour costs. Fiscal policy should make one-off payments attractive for companies and employees by allowing generous tax deduc­tion possibilities. Even more important, fiscal policy should strive to limit the impact of the current large price increases by providing targeted income support for those members of society most negatively affected by higher inflation rates. In any case, due to high inflation rates and actual supply-side constraints, it is cur­rently not the time for a fiscal stimulus via higher government expenditures.

  Jürgen Matthes Michael Grömling Markus Demary Björn Kauder Berthold Busch Gero Kunath Thomas Obst Eoin Drea Economy Macroeconomics
• 

  Ukraine

  From Bad to Worse: The Continuing Effects of Sanctions on Russia

  This paper is a follow-up to the comprehensive report “Beyond the Headlines: The Real Impact of Western Sanctions on Russia”, which was published by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in November 2022. Back then, the paper argued that the widespread view of Russia “weathering” the sanctions, which supposedly brought only a “limited” impact, was wrong, and actually based on an erroneous focus on just a handful of manipulated or misleading macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, the ruble exchange rate, unemployment, and inflation. A broader cross-sectoral look and focus on a wider set of indicators more realistically reflecting the contraction of economic activity showed a totally different picture: that the sanctions in fact were having a much wider, systemic, and lasting economic impact, which would only continue to increase over time. This meant that sanctions were working, and strategic patience was needed to see their full, devastating impact on the Russian economy. And all this was before the EU embargo on Russian oil came into effect, cutting Russia off yet another significant part of its energy export revenues.

  Since then, the situation has gotten much worse for Putin and the Russian economy. First and foremost, the EU oil embargo – on the backdrop of intensified Russian military spending – has thrown Russia into a full-blown budget crisis, something which the country was able to escape in 2022. The 2022 fiscal year ended with a significant deficit (2,3% of GDP) after being in surplus for 11 months; in the first four months of 2023, the budget deficit has exceeded the planned annual deficit (envisaged by the federal budget law) by 17%. It is important to note that, with a significant drop in private and foreign investment, the economy has increased its reliance on state assistance – the weakness of governmental finances, therefore, is a major impediment to any recovery.

  Vladimir Milov EU-Russia Ukraine
• 

  Policy Briefs

  European sovereignty between autonomy and dependence: A guide for EU policy

  Is the idea of ‘European sovereignty’ still relevant? It was originally developed as an EU response to the rise of populism within its territory and the disruption of transatlantic relations brought about by the Trump presidency. But today its relevance appears uncertain in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the growing assertiveness of China. This brief argues that European sovereignty (and related concepts such as strategic autonomy) is still an important and necessary guide for EU policy, but only if it is dissociated from some of the excessive and overambitious definitions given to the concept when it was first developed. European sovereignty is bound to fail if it is defined as taking an equidistant position between the US and China or as aiming for the atavistic goal of autarky in all conceivable policy areas, from security and energy to economy and technology. Instead, the brief argues, European sovereignty must be understood as a moderate and pragmatic agenda of defending EU interests and priorities within the wider framework of the transatlantic relationship, protecting the EU’s internal liberal political and economic order, and defending international openness where the EU still has comparative advantages. Most of all, the necessary objective of protecting European sovereignty against external forces must not become a backdoor for the undue centralisation of political and economic power inside the EU, a process that would be bound to generate new populist reactions and constrain the EU’s room of manoeuvre internationally. The brief concludes by proposing an understanding of European sovereignty as a compound term, containing both the ideal of EU autonomy of action internationally and the protection of the Union’s internal heterogeneity, diversity and level playing field. Understood in this way as a ‘sovereignty of sovereignties’, European sovereignty can serve as an important guide for EU policy.

  Angelos Chryssogelos Federico Ottavio Reho Foreign Policy Sovereignty Strategic Autonomy
• 

  Other

  The UN Sustainable Development Goals – Some Reflections from the Perspective of the European Economic and Social Committee 

  To some, it might seem odd that the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) would be of relevance to the highly developed industrial nations that form the EU. But the SDGs were not the first global target agreements of the United Nations. They were preceded by the “Millennium Development Goals” (MDGs), which set eight goals concentrated on combating poverty in the world, especially in developing countries. Its successor, the 17 SDGs, have a much broader reach in terms of goals and scope, and included highly developed countries and the EU as well. These developed societies face the same need as developing countries for a major transitionary and transformative change towards sustainable growth that protects the environment, helps communities and their inhabitants adapt to a changing climate, and which is more inclusive regarding social and resource-conserving goals. This paper shows that the European economic model of a Social Market Economy offers a good starting point for successfully mastering the structural change towards a more resource-efficient production. The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), representing the voice of social partners and civil society in the concert of the EU institutions, contributes to the three pillars of sustainability – economic growth, social equity and ecological sustainability – reinforcing each other by balancing the right regulatory and institutional framework for transition. 

  Sandra Parthie Hans-Peter Klös Peter Hefele Development Sustainability
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Reforming Economic and Monetary Union: Balancing Spending and Public Debt Sustainability

  Fiscal policy in the EU faces the dilemma of having to meet large spending needs despite the existence of elevated public debt ratios. Fiscal policy therefore needs to put the member states on a sustainable path to gradual debt reduction. The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is the decisive mechanism in the EU to ensure that this is the case. The European Commission’s proposal to reform the SGP is, in theory, a step in the right direction. However, it has some major practical shortcomings: among others, it permits a long adjustment period and grants considerable political discretion to the European Commission. To seize the theoretical opportunities the reform offers, the proposal needs to be depoliticised. To this end, independent institutions should have a more important role. Moreover, common quantitative benchmarks should be introduced as safeguards to limit the political discretion allowed. With a basic public debt sustainability analysis, we find that even in the baseline scenario the public debt ratio is likely to increase in some big member states such as France. In our two more pessimistic scenarios most member states analysed would see their public indebtedness rise, with the notable exceptions of Greece and Portugal. In such a situation, a sovereign debt crisis could arise. In this case there would not be sufficient capacity to meet the transformative spending required in the years ahead. A sound reform of the SGP is therefore a vital building block when considering how to square the circle of high public expenditure needs with the existing high public debt ratios.

  Jürgen Matthes Björn Kauder Samina Sultan Eoin Drea Economy Growth Sustainability
• 

  Ukraine

  The Ukraine War and Its Implications for European Security

  The war in Ukraine has highlighted many uncertainties and raised many questions concerning Europe’s future security and defence requirements. Has the world now been forced to accept that interstate war is no longer a phenom- enon of the past? Have the EU’s relations—and hopes for partnership—with Russia irrevocably ended? Has a new eastern-leaning centre of gravity been established within the EU? How has the war affected the nature and trajec- tory of transatlantic security relations? How might the EU conceptualise and deliver on its new requirements in the field of military capacity? What are the prospects for a peace settlement and a new Eurasian security order? These profound questions require a major aggiornamento in the EU’s approach to security and defence policy.

  Jolyon Howorth Foreign Policy Security Ukraine
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Evaluating China’s Energy Outlook: The Reds Are Far From Green

  The direction of China’s energy policy has become a conundrum. On the face of it, Beijing presents itself as an exemplar of the clean energy transition and a responsible global actor breaking its long-standing fossil-fuel addictions. China’s stellar roll-out of renewable infrastructure and its recent international pledges on decarbonisation lend support to such a narrative. However, the reality is different. The Asian country remains the world’s largest energy consumer with an incredibly energy-intensive industrial sector. More than 80% of its energy mix comes from fossil fuels, and the country is the major producer and consumer of coal globally. China is the world’s biggest polluter and its carbon footprint is only set to increase. Worse still, China’s reliance on coal remains a consciously built-in feature of its future energy policy.

  This policy brief has three main objectives. First, it analyses China’s current energy mix and the likely future trends for both its fossil and clean energy sectors. A special focus is placed on China’s growing reliance on coal, as well as on the direction of the country’s oil and gas imports, both of which have serious repercussions for global markets and the Sino-Russian relationship. China’s clean energy sector is then analysed and put into perspective. Second, the brief explores the unique characteristics of Chinese energy policy and the goal of energy security as its guiding principle. China’s economic and energy outlook is not just a product of technocratic deliberations but follows the dictum of the Chinese Communist Party, which remains the nucleus of the country’s political life. Finally, the paper closes with an overview of the most important considerations for EU policymakers and puts forward a number of policy recommendations.

  Dimitar Lilkov China Energy
• 

  IN BRIEF

  Why There Cannot be Climate Refugees

  Scientific consensus has confirmed that that the ongoing increase in average global temperature poses manifold threats to humanity. Despite suggestions to the contrary, the effects of changes in the Earth’s climate on human mobility and cross-border migration are still unclear, especially with regard to migration to Europe. Attempts to coin the term ‘climate refugee’ suggest the need to expand the scope of the 1951 Refugee Convention, as the existing definition of a refugee does not cover climate change. We argue that attempts to widen the scope of the Convention would end up in failure, and even if they succeeded, the inclusion of climate change would damage the international protection regime.

  Adam Reuben Vít Novotný Climate Change Migration
• 

  Other

  Youth of the EPP: 25 Years on the Right Side of History

  On 21 January 1997, almost 300 people representing 42 youth political organisations gathered for a weekend of debate and discussion at the Facultés Universitaires Saint-Louis in Brussels. The event would become the Founding Congress of the Youth of the European People’s Party (YEPP) and was the final step in a long journey towards building a single European umbrella organisation for the youth of Christian Democratic and Conservative parties affiliated with the European People’s Party (EPP).

  Gareth Gregan Silva Mertsola Steven Van Hecke Centre-Right Youth
• 

  European View

  Navigating through renewed economic uncertainty

  Crisis Economy European Union
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Culture Wars: How to stabilise liberal democracies and regain ground for the centre–right parties

  In Western democracies the core principles of an open society are under threat from political polarisation, (self-)censorship and a decline in the opportunities for open public discourse. It is mainly centrist parties, particularly conservative–liberal and Christian Democratic ones, that have been hit by these deformations. The paper will analyse the genesis and characteristics of the current public debates on these issues and develop ideas from a conservative–liberal perspective on strengthening the political and ideological position of centre–right parties. It argues that it is not, first and foremost, the debates and divisions surrounding values in modern societies which pose the biggest challenge for modern democracies and democratic parties. Rather, it is the deliberate, culturally induced assault on free and rational public discourse that is damaging the core mechanism required for a functioning pluralistic society and multi-party system.

  Peter Hefele Centre-Right Democracy Values
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2022

  Without a doubt, 2022 will be remembered as one of the most challenging and shocking years of the 21st century, as we faced the greatest challenge in our Eastern neighbourhood since the fall of Communism in the late 1980s.

  The increasingly complex geopolitical circumstances in which Europe finds itself require the development of a European response that can effectively address current challenges and anticipate future threats, while preserving the bloc’s inherent values and principles.

  The Martens Centre’s ambition was to react to the above-mentioned challenges through our research, projects and communications strategy, to incite expert debates, raise awareness, and provide our centre-right leadership and our network with such ideas and recommendations that could address the issues we face in this increasingly fractured global environment.

  Theo Larue Margherita Movarelli Centre-Right EU Member States European Union Leadership
• 

  Ukraine

  The War in Ukraine and the Way Forward

  On 24 February 2022, conventional interstate conflict returned to Europe after Russia launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. Although some predicted at the time that Kyiv would fall in a matter of days, the Ukrainian people continue to fight to defend their homeland and push Russia out. Their bravery and determination should be saluted, and the international community should continue to show solidarity towards Ukraine.

  Russia’s invasion is a major breach of international law, specifically the principle that the borders of recognised states should not be changed by the force of arms. Ukrainians voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, and the USSR’s successor state, the Russian Federation, recognised Ukrainian independence in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Allowing Russia’s aggression to stand would weaken this principle and provide a precedent for other aggressive states to extend their frontiers by force.

  It is unclear how much longer the war will last. Russia has remained committed to waging war against Ukraine, and Ukraine has ruled out any peace that does not involve the return of all its occupied provinces, including the province of Crimea. Furthermore, the land that Ukraine is seeking to free from Russian occupation is perceived by both sides as part of their national identity, but it remains Ukrainian under international law. This means that the chances for a sustainable peace deal are currently rather slim. The EU must therefore prepare for a protracted Russo-Ukrainian war, characterised by intermittent periods of escalation and de-escalation.

  To deal with such a conflict, the EU needs an action plan. The objectives of this action plan should be to (1) push Russia to cease all hostilities towards Ukraine and withdraw its forces as a first step beyond the 24 February 2022 borders, (2) assist Ukraine in recovering and rebuilding itself, (3) facilitate Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and (4) enhance the EU’s strategic sovereignty, i.e., its capacity to react and deal with external shocks. To reach these goals, a set of short, medium, and long-term options are presented below.

  Mikuláš Dzurinda EU-Russia Foreign Policy Future of Europe Ukraine
• 

  Ukraine

  Cross-Border Movements Compared: Migration from and to Ukraine in Historical Comparison with Other Conflict-Induced Situations 

  The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 created massive cross-border movements out of Ukraine and back into the country. This short piece presents a historical comparison of the Ukraine post-invasion migration with other similar situations in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The comparison reveals that with more than 6 million crossings in both directions, the cross-border movements in the first 2 months of the Russian assault on Ukraine constitute probably the most intensive conflict-induced migration on record at the global scale during a two-months period. 

  By 24 February 2023, some 8.1 million refugees from Ukraine were recorded across Europe (including non-EU countries). Surprisingly, the EU, which has welcomed the majority of the refugees following the Russian attack, has been able to absorb such large numbers without the inflow causing a major political conflict between the member states. The European societies’ sympathy for the plight of the fleeing Ukrainians has played a decisive role in this. The Ukrainian displacement shows that each immigration flow is unique and that there are instances where mass immigration does not shake the EU to the core. The unexpectedness of this influx also serves as a reminder that the EU needs to develop robust plans for migration contingencies. 

  Vít Novotný Crisis Migration Ukraine
• 

  IN BRIEF

  Mistaking the Wood for the Trees: Five Ways the EU can Deliver a more Competitive Industrial Policy

  The recent launch of the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Strategy was supposed to set the “framework for the transformation of the EU’s industry for the net-zero age”. Unfortunately, it’s now viewed as a panicked reaction to the Biden administrations Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States.

  While the American legislation will increase the attractiveness of the US as a “green” investment location – a move which is positive for global efforts to combat climate change – it will not automatically result in a flight of capital and employment across the Atlantic. Rather, there is a real possibility that the hurried implementation of Brussels’ current proposals may, unintentionally, undermine the European Single Market, increase friction between member states and ultimately weaken the Transatlantic economic relationship.

  Politically, the Industrial Strategy proposals cannot be considered in isolation. They are closely linked to a whole array of interlinked proposals regarding Trade Policy, State Aid Rules, the Competitiveness Agenda and Education to name but a few. They also form part of a significantly wider debate about the future direction of the EU itself. In this context, increased protectionism, supporting national champions and more EU-level borrowing represents a more statist, more centralised vision of European integration. A vision which challenges the Single Market underpinnings which have formed the basis of Europe’s decades-long economic expansion.

  Eoin Drea Economy European Union Industry Transatlantic
• 

  Collaborative

  Artificial Intelligence and Democracy

  Politics is, first and foremost, concerned with shaping the future. In the years to come, politicians will have to increasingly rely on artificial intelligence (AI) to support them in their efforts; especially when it is necessary to make well-informed decisions. The online symposium on “Artificial Intelligence and Democracy”, which was organised by the Political Academy in cooperation with the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and transmitted in February 2022, examined what is important in political work with AI-supported decision-making tools, and what AI means for democracy.

  Numerous national and international experts reflected on and explained “artificial intelligence” from various perspectives. We have summarised the contributions to this online symposium for you in this overview.

  The text is available in English and German.

  Democracy Innovation Technology
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Relations Between the EU and Switzerland: Too Much to Lose, Too Little to Negotiate?

  As the saying goes, for all the time of its peaceful existence, Switzerland has only produced the cuckoo clock. This is not correct, of course, both because the cuckoo clock was invented in Bavaria, and, more importantly, because Switzerland has contributed significantly to Europe’s political development. The country is not only the earliest and brightest example of republican and federal governance, but its legal and political ties with the EU have also created the entangled concept of bilateralism. This dynamic relationship has worked well for many years, so it may come as a surprise to discover how fragile it is, especially at a time when every deal must be sealed not only between reasonable counterparts but also with the approval of the respective electorates.

  This paper examines how diplomatic dialogue between the EU and Switzerland has evolved since the beginning of the 1990s. Even though traditionally predictable and moderate, both partners have recently encountered difficulties in achieving a comprehensive trade and legal relationship. This would not have been an issue if the existing framework was still reliable, which is currently not the case. Over the past year and a half there has been increasing confusion as to why the EU and Switzerland cannot find agreement, as well as a demonstration of the adverse consequences of damaged trust. By explaining the context and the possible causes of the political stalemate, several takeaways are suggested as ways to resolve it successfully.

  Anastas Punev Dimitar Lilkov Foreign Policy
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Up, Up and Away? A Price Stability Guide for Policymakers

  Inflation is back with surprising force. Should inflation remain significantly elevated over an extended period, detrimental effects on the EU’s economic model, on growth and on social peace can be expected. A coordinated macroeconomic response is required, combining monetary and fiscal policy. The European Central Bank needs to continue to signal its willingness to stick to its price stability mandate to keep inflation expectations under control. It should not succumb to the goal of fiscal dominance by targeting public debt sustainability more than price stability. This would imply giving up its independence. Fiscal policy should facilitate the objective of monetary policy to target inflation while minimising the impact on economic growth. To reduce the danger of a wage–price spiral, fiscal policy should strive to limit the impact of extreme price rises and should be targeted towards those members of society most affected by the higher prices. In contrast, general expenditure increases or tax reductions for an extended period of time carry the danger of overburdening governments. Price interventions should be the very last option, as they decrease the incentive to reduce the demand for higher priced goods and thus do not allow for the signalling power of prices regarding scarcity. Due to high inflation rates and supply-side constraints, it is currently not the right time for a fiscal demand stimulus.

  Jürgen Matthes Thomas Obst Berthold Busch Björn Kauder Michael Grömling Markus Demary Gero Kunath Eoin Drea Crisis Macroeconomics
• 

  Collaborative

  Re-new EU — Recovery, Reopening and Revival

  The questions and challenges facing the European Union are numerous, the answers and solutions are fewer. Never, since the Second World War, has Europe been that essential. Yet never has Europe been in so much danger. How to achieve a more united, more sovereign, more democratic Europe? Shall European union move forward only in responding to crises? How to act in order to defend EU’s interests and values in these unusual times? The climate crisis is a global problem. Security risks create instability. How to make EU stronger, more autonomous and more influential? Academic researchers from several countries combined their efforts in trying to find answers to these questions in this joint publication of the Martens Centre and the Hanns Seidel Foundation with the support of European Studies Department of Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”.

  Crisis EU Member States
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  Collaborative

  Places of Memory: a European Perspective on Overcoming Past Trauma

  Many places of memory in Europe carry social, historical, cultural and national traumas for society (battlefields, places of mass executions, concentration camps, prisons, etc.). As a rule, the historical and cultural heritage is one of the conductors of this memory. Overcoming traumatic memory is an important task for small communities, the people of a particular country, or the people of several countries. The problematic of this project is to research the important places of memory that carry trauma for communities and peoples in order to analyse the positive and negative examples of overcoming the trauma of the past in Europe. The publication analyses positive examples of overcoming memory trauma through places of memory in Western and Eastern Europe and identifies the tools that made this possible; it also analyses negative examples of overcoming memory trauma through places of memory in Western and Eastern Europe and gives possible recommendations or conclusions on steps that can be constructively aimed at overcoming socio-cultural, historical, cultural or national memory trauma.

  The text is available in English and Belarusian.

  Values
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  Ukraine

  Contemporary regional threats and challenges in Europe

  Defence Security Ukraine
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  Other

  The European Union as a Global Power of Values

  The European Union has been traditionally perceived as a values-based power that has exerted a certain appeal to the world and a transformative influence on its neighbours. The power of its attraction derives from the fact that it is a unique model in history, constructed on common values, mutual interests, solidarity and joint policies for economic development and convergence, with the aim to preserve peace, stability and welfare for all European peoples. Despite occasional ups and downs, this has been a successful endeavour, as demon- strated by its successive development and unprecedented enlargements. The effectiveness of the EU in disseminating its values varies, depending on different factors. Overall, the EU’s most powerful tool is its paradigm. In response to current challenges threatening the credibility of its model, the EU needs to remain committed to its values and principles, speak with one voice and keep inspiring its peoples first, so that it can inspire the world.

  Marina Skordeli
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  Other

  Springeneration

  At the European People’s Party (EPP) Congress in Marseille, France in December 2011, the Centre for European Studies (CES), the official think tank of the EPP, launched its latest public opinion initiative, the ‘Springeneration’ survey (www.springeneration.eu).

  This interactive, online brainstorming site served as a forum for gathering ideas and feedback from people in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) about how to forge a new partnership with Europe, especially in light of the ‘Arab Spring’ developments of the past year. Participants had the opportunity to describe how they envision their future, what is important to them and how Europeans can show solidarity with, and support the aspirations of, people in the MENA region. The survey was available in English, French and Arabic.

  John Lageson
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  Collaborative

  Communist/Soviet Historical and Cultural Heritage of Eastern Europe in the 21st Century

  The communist/Soviet heritage is a significant part of the historical and cultural heritage in Eastern Europe. It has shaped the unique landscape of many cities and has a significant impact on the social, cultural and political way of life of millions of Europeans. After the collapse of the Warsaw Pact Organization, as well as the Soviet Union, the problem of alternative use, preservation and interpretation of this heritage for future generations of Europeans arose. The articles in this publication analyses various discourses of socio-cultural perception of the communist/Soviet heritage and the prospects for its use and interpretation. Authors explore the problematic issues of the communist historical and cultural heritage in Eastern Europe. And the practice of using, preserving and interpreting the communist / Soviet heritage.

  The text is available in English and Belarusian.

  Central and Eastern Europe Values
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  Collaborative

  Shaping EU Presidency Priorities: National Challenges in a European Context. A Path Forward Under New Political Realities.

  In July 2022, Czechia took over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in a very complicated situation, when the whole country, as well as Europe, was facing major challenges caused by severe economic, social and political uncertainty. This publication was prepared in mid-2022, at the beginning of the Czech Presidency, and is unable to assess how it has scored in this demanding role. We instead present reflections on various aspects and issues linked to the Czech Presidency priorities, both on the national and European levels. Peter Hefele, Lucie Tungul, Zora Hesová, Jakub Charvát, Pavel Hroboň and Otomar Sláma address some of the current pressing issues including Europe’s security architecture, climate policy, culture wars, electoral reforms, health care reforms, and innovation strategies. 

  Lucie Tungul Council of the European Union Czechia EU Presidency
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  Research Papers

  The EU and the Multifaceted Nature of European Identity

  This study seeks to contribute to the discussion on the multifaceted nature of European identity and culture and why the EU should engage in, rather than retreat from, having such discussions. It posits that Europe is a place where national identity can be affirmed, rather than rejected, since this in itself does not contradict or diminish the idea of a shared European identity. Rather, a European identity can complement and even strengthen national identity.

  The complementarity of such identities is due to the uniqueness of the shared European space and of the sui generis nature of the EU itself. The conception of this shared space, however, is dependent on full respect for the principle of subsidiarity. The EU has registered some successes where subsidiarity has been maintained, but has struggled when it has attempted to emulate nation states in their creation of ‘imagined communities’.

  The more difficult elements—such as some contentious shared history—should be acknowledged rather than ignored, no matter how difficult this may be. Similarly, the Judeo-Christian heritage of Europe can add value to the debate on culture, identity and values.

  In addition, this study posits that there are other areas where a sense of European identity can grow, for example, through the strengthening of European citizenship and through extending opportunities for transnational contacts.

  André P. Debattista Federico Ottavio Reho EU Member States European Union Values
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  Collaborative

  Artificial Intelligence: Threats and Opportunities for Europeans

  “Artificial Intelligence” (AI) is a collective term that denotes a set of technologies that allow computers to gather information from data and, depending on the situation, to act on such information either by kicking off additional data processing or by causing events in the physical world.

  The public debate about Artificial Intelligence in the European Union has triggered the need to set a global standard for how to regulate these emerging technologies, but also properly assess possible consequences of moving forward with policy initiatives. This publication looks at the threat but also opportunities surrounding AI as well as ethical questions.

  Digital Innovation Technology
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  IN FOCUS

  ‘Our European Way of Life’ as the Guiding Principle: Shifts in the Understanding of Immigrant Integration at the EU Level

  Over the past 17 years, the EU institutions have been issuing non-binding guidance documents on conceptualising immigrant integration. An analysis of the successive iterations of these guidance documents reveals both continuity and change. During this period, the Commission and the Council have attached different meanings to the concept of a two-way process of interaction between the host society and the newcomers. In documents issued in 2004–5, the two-way process contained the requirement for both immigrants and citizens of the receiving country to accommodate each other. Following shifts in public opinion and disquiet about problems with migrant integration in the 2010s, the European Commission adjusted its guidance. In a definition formulated in 2020, ‘mutual accommodation’ gave way to an emphasis on the adaptation of migrants to the receiving society and the obligation of the host country to help migrants integrate into the mainstream culture. In the current parliamentary term (2019–present), the von der Leyen Commission has promoted the overarching concept of ‘Our European Way of Life’ to accompany the new understanding of the two-way process of migrant integration. This concept is anchored in the EU’s secular values of human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality and the rule of law, and bears a strong resemblance to the European Leitkultur, or ‘guiding culture’, of respect for the constitution and the values of the Enlightenment, as coined by the author Bassam Tibi in 1998.

  Vít Novotný Integration Migration Values
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  Ukraine

  Beyond the Headlines: The Real Impact of Western Sanctions on Russia

  There has been much ongoing debate about the effects of economic sanctions imposed on Russia since the beginning of Putin’s war against Ukraine. Many commentators argue that sanctions are having only limited effects or no effect at all – firstly, because they haven’t forced Putin to change his policies, and secondly, because the Russian economy has demonstrated significant resilience. This paper argues that both assertions are misleading. The latter argument – about the resilience of the Russian economy – is based on a flawed approach focused on just a handful of macroeconomic indicators, which are insufficient to assess the genuine state of the Russian economy. A consideration of more detailed data is necessary to determine the true effect of sanctions. Once that is done, the former argument also collapses: the reason Putin hasn’t changed his policies yet is because the Russian economy has some significant safety margins (most likely specifically developed to withstand the consequences of an aggression against Ukraine), and it takes time for sanctions to produce visible macroeconomic effects, thereby forcing Putin to change his policies.

  This paper provides an in-depth analysis of a wide array of detailed economic data, which suggests that such effects are on the way. A look beyond a limited number of widely discussed macroeconomic parameters proves that the economy is already experiencing a wide range of unprecedented difficulties, which are only being contained by policy tricks and Russia’s remaining financial reserves. It is important to understand this comprehensive picture of the effects of sanctions, in order to make adequate policy judgments as to their efficiency.

  Vladimir Milov Economy EU-Russia Foreign Policy Ukraine
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  Research Papers

  Navigating the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: The Dangers of Non-Compliance and Circumvention

  The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has to pass two major tests before it can come into effect. It has to withstand any challenges to its compatibility with the World Trade Organization rules. It also has to prove that it can effectively address carbon leakage and ensure a level playing field for European companies. It should not be allowed to be circumvented. This depends on the design of the CBAM and on how it is implemented.

  If the CBAM is structured to be an effective tool to prevent carbon leakage, it will have to cover a wide scope of emissions, which may negatively affect many trading partners. The endeavour to prevent circumvention may turn the CBAM into an administrative nightmare for companies and for the public institutions involved. Many more trade-offs would have to be taken into account in the design and implementation of the mechanism and these will be discussed in this paper. All of them require thorough consideration and policy choices that have been carefully thought through. The paper includes a number of policy recommendations. The CBAM is unique in the world of trade—if it is to succeed, expectations must be tempered. If the CBAM is indeed able to help to achieve climate objectives, many countries may go on to develop similar instruments of their own. However, the failure of the CBAM could have serious implications for the global trading system and EU climate policy.

  Jarosław Pietras Dimitar Lilkov Climate Change European Union Trade
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  Collaborative

  Decarbonising the Economy of North Macedonia

  The war in Ukraine changed the geostrategic influence on the energy markets in the world, manifested mainly through the changes in the price of energy fuels and electricity and took toll of the low-carbon transition plans. Soaring energy prices have prompted governments to rethink their energy policies. Many countries – including North Macedonia – are considering ramping up fossil fuels as part of their response, but increasing fossil fuels would put the 1.5 degrees Celsius target beyond reach.

  Since October 2021, North Macedonia, forced by the sharp incline of the energy prices on the market delayed the closure of the coal-based power plants to support the energy security of the country. The energy crisis forced the North Macedonia’s Government to provide budgetary support to the energy companies, amounting 760.2 million euros so far.

  A systematic literature review has been undertaken, followed by an in-depth analysis to ascertain the extent to which the new global energy paradigm will influence the main strategic energy-related objectives of the country. The results show deviation from the decarbonisation path and the planned measures, as well as possible changes in the investment cost scenarios. Based on this analysis, three key policy recommendations are provided to get back on the decarbonisation pathway.

  The current unprecedented energy crises in Europe may be the main driver for the devaluation of the national economies, resulting with economic inflations. However, it presents a possibility for investment in renewable technologies and especially energy efficiency, therefore contributing to a sustainable green transition for North Macedonia.

  Balkans Climate Change Energy
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  IN BRIEF

  Climate Club: The Way Forward

  A Climate or Carbon Club has been proposed as a form of cooperation which could be established between like-minded countries sharing ambitious climate policies to encourage all others to follow suit and embark on equally grand climate measures. For the time being, this is a rather amorphous idea which needs to be converted into an effective instrument of the global climate transition. It remains unclear who could form a club, how its members could organise cooperation, what conditions would be expected from those willing to join, and what kind of instruments members could use to achieve their club’s aims. This In Brief seeks to shed some light on the concept.

  Jarosław Pietras Climate Change Environment Trade
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  Ukraine

  Thinking the Unthinkable: How Might the EU Prepare for and React to a Russian Nuclear Strike on Ukraine?

  The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would create, for the EU and the West more broadly, the most dangerous moment in international security since the Cuban missile crisis. The EU needs to prepare for this eventuality and develop response options.

  Niklas Nováky Jolyon Howorth Defence EU-Russia Foreign Policy Security
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  Future of Europe

  EU Subsidiarity as an Antidote to Centralisation and Inefficiency

  How to design a federation? The European federation is plagued with crises, and these can be linked to our understanding of the basic principle on which any federation is based: subsidiarity. The Treaties present subsidiarity as a legal separation of tasks between the national and EU levels. This interpretation assumes that removing tasks from member states is possible and desirable. Yet attempts to define a legal Kompetenzkatalog failed. Moreover, EU policies based on centralisation—in economic governance, for example—have also failed, and centralised enforcement has not stabilised the euro. Multilevel governance requires an organisational approach to subsidiarity that starts with the recognition that safeguarding the integrity of the member states is essential. However, the EU lacks an administrative model. Subsidiarity may help to fill this gap by recognising that the EU is not about delegating tasks but about managing interdependence between the member states. The organisational understanding of subsidiarity has important implications for the tasks of the European Commission. Rather than being a hierarchical body that focuses on legislation and supervises member states, the Commission needs to focus on the managing of networks: identifying bottlenecks in EU cooperation, supporting team-based inspections and supervising the quality of multilevel networks.

  Adriaan Schout Federico Ottavio Reho EU Member States European Union Subsidiarity
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  Ukraine

  The Long View: A Centre Right Response to the Economic Fallout of War in Ukraine

  Much has been written on the economic impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For the European Union, the already visible impacts of rising energy and food prices presage more fundamental economic challenges in the longer term. Coupled with the lingering side effects of the COVID-19 pandemic the global economy is facing unprecedented turmoil.

  Unfortunately, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Ukraine is also being followed by economic consequences which are already impacting both European and global economies. The uncertainty of this war is eroding confidence and will pose a threat to economic stability should it continue in the long term. As European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni noted, ‘the duration of the war will determine its cost, both humanitarian and economic’.

  This In Brief provides a broad overview of the principal macroeconomic impacts of the Ukraine war on the EU. It also provides a set of recommendations designed to guide the EU’s policy actions in the future. Further publications in this series will deal with specific issues related to the impacts on agriculture, energy prices, European security/defence policy and the longer-term effects on the wider European integration process.

  Eoin Drea Peter Hefele Crisis Economy EU-Russia Macroeconomics Ukraine
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  IN BRIEF

  Europe’s Tough Energy Choices

  The EU’s energy sector is in a severe shock. The Kremlin’s deliberate choice to limit natural gas exports to Europe is causing lasting damage, which is ricocheting in many directions. Electricity prices have skyrocketed in all member states, setting new grim records. Natural gas rates are also soaring, while conventional alternatives such as coal and timber are becoming pricier or more limited in supply. Leading energy utilities like Uniper SE and Électricité de France (EDF) are asking for state bailouts to recover their huge losses. European governments are pumping billions of euros each month in order to keep energy prices artificially lower for end users. Most worryingly, European citizens are asking if there will be sufficient power supply during the winter to keep homes warm and businesses running. As the EU is in the eye of the energy storm, the most important question remains, what is there to be done?

  Dimitar Lilkov Energy EU-Russia
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  Policy Briefs

  The EU’s Relations With a Future Democratic Russia: A Strategy

  Since its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s Russia has become the greatest threat to peace and stability in Europe. Even before launching the invasion in February 2022, Russia had become the source of many of Europe’s security problems and challenges. Russia’s behaviour is due to its autocratic government and the absence of political checks and balances on Putin. However, if Russia were a democracy, European security and the EU’s relations with Moscow might look very different. This policy brief discusses what a democratic Russia would mean for Europe. It presents a strategy that the EU could follow in its relations with a democratic Russia—a strategy that includes both carrots and sticks. It is necessary to have such a strategy ready now so that the EU can show the Russian people, even during this time of war, that there is a chance to have a more normal life if Russia were to be transformed. That said, for any of this to happen, Putin’s Russia must lose the war in Ukraine.

  Andrius Kubilius Vladimir Milov Roland Freudenstein Sergei Guriev Democracy EU-Russia Foreign Policy
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  IN FOCUS

  GDP, not the Bond Yield, should Remain the Anchor of the EU Fiscal Framework

  Declining bond yields and rising public debts have caused many economists to suggest raising the debt ceiling in the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact. Implicitly, they argue for replacing GDP as the anchor with the bond yield. We discuss the risks of such a shift. While such a change would provide short-term relief to highly indebted EU member states, it is based on the expectation that bond yields will remain low for the foreseeable future. The historical record, however, suggests that prolonged periods of low real bond yields are eventually replaced by periods of high real bond yields. And this phase may have already started. From a long-term sustainability perspective, we conclude that GDP serves as a better long-term anchor for the EU fiscal framework than the bond rate.

  Lars Jonung Fredrik N. G. Andersson Eoin Drea Economy European Union Macroeconomics
• 

  Policy Briefs

  NATO’s New Strategic Concept: What Should We Expect?

  A highlight of NATO’s forthcoming summit in Madrid in June 2022 will be the publication of its new Strategic Concept, a mission statement of the role and purpose of the alliance over the next decade. These periodic exercises by international organisations are frequently derided by critics as bureaucratic documents that reflect painful compromises, the lowest common denominator of consensus among the member states and wish lists of ambitions that are rarely implemented. Another criticism is that in a fast-changing world, the tasks and priorities that feature in these concepts are soon out of date and that what is not mentioned tends to quickly become more significant than what is included. Yet in the case of NATO, this criticism would be misplaced. War has returned to Europe, and military threats to the alliance’s security are now more real than they have been at any time since the height of the Cold War. If all of NATO’s 30 member states are to remain secure (and the number will eventually reach 32 when Finland and Sweden join), the alliance has to get its strategy for deterrence and collective defence right. It also needs to reduce Russia’s capability to inflict harm on its member states and partners over the long run, while managing crises and avoiding dangerous escalation. Thus, NATO’s critical choices now and in the immediate future carry unusually large risks and strategic consequences. This is why we should all be paying close attention to the debates on its new Strategic Concept which are currently taking place inside NATO. What is still valid in the existing concept, which dates back to 2010? And where can we expect new orientations and policy objectives? Will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine make it easier or harder for allies to reach consensus?

  Jamie Shea Defence European Union NATO Security
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  Future of Europe

  Standing in Unity, Respecting Diversity: A Survey Into Citizens’ Perspectives on the Future of Europe

  Since the eurozone crisis of 2009, the future of Europe has been framed as a choice between more or less Europe, between the competing visions of EU federalists and populist nationalists. This paper demonstrates that this polarity is increasingly at odds with public perceptions of the future of Europe. European policy attitudes are characterised by a great diversity of viewpoints rooted in different values and national interests. This diversity must be respected and taken seriously. However, there is also a growing consensus about the need for a united European response to common external threats such as Russian aggression, climate change and the geopolitical conflicts affecting our economic and values systems. In a world adrift, the fl ag around which we rally is increasingly becoming European. This paper explores public opinion on four main policy areas fundamental to our future: the European economy, our common security, joint climate action and shared EU values. The research is based on 4 extensive surveys conducted in 10 EU countries between January 2020 and March 2022. They measure citizens’ perspectives both just before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For this research, the Martens Centre has partnered with global research agency Glocalities, which has developed a research methodology to measure cultural diversity between EU countries and values differences within European societies.

  Federico Ottavio Reho Anne Blanksma Çeta EU Member States European Union Values
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  Policy Briefs

  Regulating the Digital Future: A Centre–Right Approach to Crypto Assets and Digital Currencies

  Digital finance is now part of the financial mainstream. This paper provides recommendations aimed at making the EU a stronger global player in digital finance and digital currencies. It also seeks to place the centre–right as the key driver of this change within the European political framework. First, we argue that a carefully deliberated EU legal framework for crypto assets is both welcome and required. This framework should be based on protecting financial stability while encouraging innovation. Ensuring the ability of European citizens to have access to these digital tools and to invest based on their personal preferences is an important principle of open democracies.

  Second, Europe must be at the heart of the digital currency revolution, and the European Central Bank should expedite the development of a ‘digital euro’ as a complement to traditional euro notes. This is the optimum solution to providing a secure and universally accepted digital currency. Public money must remain the linchpin of digital finance. Moreover, the framework for crypto assets should be based on key principles of the centre–right: it must be regulated, secure and credible. The centre–right should actively support the proposed Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation and work, across the EU institutions, towards its speedy finalisation and adoption. The principle of ‘same activity, same risk, same rules’ should remain the bedrock of the regulatory approach to crypto and digital asset classes, and to stablecoins in particular.

  Lastly, the regulation of crypto assets should be part of the wider effort to reduce the fragmentation of the policy landscape within the EU. Financial technology (FinTech) products and services are rising in prominence globally, and this has direct bearing on issues related to competitiveness, digital services and cybersecurity. European policymakers should act more decisively so that the EU does not fall behind in the global FinTech race.

  Eoin Drea Dimitar Lilkov Digital Economy Technology
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  Ukraine

  The changing realities of EU defence cooperation

  Defence EU-Russia Ukraine
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2021

  2021 has certainly been another testing time for all of us, as we went through additional waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, which continued to have an incredible impact on our social and professional lives. At the same time, it was yet again a very eventful year at the European as well as the global level, with several ups and downs during this unusual time.

  Theo Larue Margherita Movarelli Centre-Right EU Member States European Union Leadership
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  Ukraine

  Russia’s War Against Ukraine is Changing Europe’s Strategic Culture

  Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine has led to a turning point in Europe’s thinking on security and defence. The EU’s decision to finance the supply of lethal arms and equipment to Ukraine, along with Germany’s and other countries’ announcement to massively increase military spending, marks a remarkable reversal in Europe’s strategic culture.

  Niklas Nováky Peter Hefele Defence Foreign Policy Ukraine
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  Ukraine

  Democratisation in EU Foreign Policy: The Cases of Belarus, Turkey and Ukraine

  Three countries on the eastern border of the EU have caused significant political and economic challenges to the EU’s accession policy (Turkey) and to the European Neighbourhood Policy (Belarus and Ukraine). All three have revealed some weaknesses of the intra-EU decision-making processes (especially the lack of flexibility and the unwillingness to apply ‘hard’ power politics) and the disunity of the EU member states’ voices, which reflects their very divergent national interests. Still, the policies adopted by the EU with regard to these countries also represent an opportunity for the EU.

  The paper focuses on the key attributes that the EU needs to consider when drafting its policies, both bilateral and multilateral, towards these countries. We argue that the EU should form rules-based relationships that take a step-by-step approach. Individual member states could assume more active roles in promoting specific policy recommendations. This approach could bring together the differing interests of the EU member states and the EU institutions.

  Lucie Tungul Petr Hlaváček Tereza Soušková Marek Ženíšek Viktória Jančošeková Democracy Eastern Europe Neighbourhood Policy
• 

  IN FOCUS

  The Transatlantic Perspective on Migration: Attuning Migration Policy to National Politics

  The challenge of irregular migration has left policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic bewildered about how to respond coherently in a way that is effective and angers the fewest people. The migration surge on the southern border of the US has peaked at its highest level ever, at nearly 1.7 million encounters in one year. In the first 10 months of 2021, there were 184,000 illegal border crossings into the EU, mainly through the Central Mediterranean and the Western Balkans routes. This represents a 45% increase on the pre-pandemic year 2019.

  The difficulty of managing irregular migration is but the latest in a series of issues that have strengthened the nationalist tendencies which over the past decade have overwhelmed the political establishments in the EU and the US. Although not the only driver, the perception of uncontrolled migration adds strong fuel to the fire of the new nationalist parties and leaders that seek a fundamental revision of foreign policy. It has thus weakened the ability of the transatlantic community to act collectively on other strategic issues, such as how to deal with Russia and China. Irregular migration is closely related to the concept of ‘Westlessness’, as coined by the Munich Security Conference in 2020, which describes a divided and unconfident West that is having difficulties finding an international foothold.

  This paper aims to distinguish between three broad measures that could help policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic structure their response to irregular migration. These measures are (1) making deals with third countries, (2) enforcing sovereign borders and (3) adapting legal interpretations. Clarity about the pros and cons of each policy measure, and their combinations, could help decision-makers find a workable compromise that reaffirms both the sovereign right of democracies to control who enters their territories and the humanitarian concerns that will always be an essential part of what the transatlantic community stands for.

  Henrik Larsen Vít Novotný Migration Transatlantic
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  IN BRIEF

  Why Brexit Britain is a Threat to the EU From the Left, not the Right

  Brexit is still viewed in Europe as part of the populist revolt that swept much of the world in the last decade; a decade symbolised most clearly by Donald Trump’s victory in the US, months after the EU referendum in the UK. But while Trump’s (preliminary) defeat and the relatively orderly departure of the UK have allayed fears that English-speaking democracies could become hotbeds of right-populist destabilisation of the European project, a new crop of leftist identity politics in Britain poses a more insidious danger for the legitimacy and standing of the EU.

  Angelos Chryssogelos Brexit Centre-Right Populism
• 

  Collaborative

  Building a Civil Society in Belarus

  Belarus is going through the process of transition to democracy. Afterwards, the country will need to go through a transformation and a reform process. There is no doubt that civil society will be actively involved in these processes to pursue freedom and responsibility, equality and justice, solidarity and subsidiarity, dignity of human life. The proof of active involvement of the society in political processes that are taking place at the moment is shown in horizontal activity of local initiatives in the cities and towns. These initiatives are fundamental cells of civil society in Belarus. This publication is divided into 4 parts analysing different grassroot initiatives and providing recommendations from other EU countries.

  The text is available in English and Belarusian.

  Democracy Eastern Europe
• 

  Collaborative

  Communist Heritage in Belarus and EU Countries: The Problem of Interpretation and the Relevance of Conservation

  For many centuries, the history and culture of Belarus have been intricately linked with the history and culture of modern Poland, Lithuania, Germany, and other European countries. The topic of historical and cultural heritage is well developed in European countries, and problems in this area are considered comprehensively and through a common European prism. Even though Belarus is part of Europe, much less attention is paid to this issue. 

  Due to its past, the question is especially acute in Belarus when it comes to the Soviet historical and cultural heritage. The country is characterized by an extreme ideologization of this type of heritage, which is associated with the problem of national identity, politics of memory, social trauma and state ideology. This entails a generational conflict. This publication studies the prospects for the use, interpretation and preservation of the Soviet historical and cultural heritage in Belarus, based on the experience of the countries of the former Warsaw bloc.

  The text is available in English and Belarusian.

  Eastern Europe
• 

  Collaborative

  Seeing Europe anew: Young politicians and the future of Europe

  Europe is never complete. That is a hugely inspiring idea, particularly for a young generation of Europeans. Previous generations have endowed Europe with a rich heritage of traditions, cultures, diversity, and pluralism. And because of the endless diversity that characterises Europe, the European project is always a work in progress. No one will ever be able to ‘call it a day’ and declare Europe as a finished phenomenon.

  The energy generated by this duality of rich history and challenging perspective has given rise to this book. As young Christian Democrats in the Netherlands, we found it most inspiring to engage with our contemporaries in political positions in the EPP family1 — to allow them to have their say and to enter into a dialogue with them. This collection, encompassing dialogue and vision, is the result of this engagement, which in a time of Covid-19 took the form of digital meetings and discussions. The structure of the book shows — we do hope — how fascinating and substantive the conversations were. The book is neither a literal account nor a summary and digest of each individual interview, but rather a composition of content from these multinational and multicultural dialogues on themes relevant to European Christian Democrats and members of the EPP.

  Centre-Right Future of Europe Youth
• 

  Collaborative

  Beyond resentment: A Journey through the Italian Middle Class from Postwar to Pandemics

  We live in an era dominated by uncertainty and, above all, resentment; that is to say, the expression of a large disappointment generated by many betrayed expectations. What are the social sources of anger, and why does this feeling consolidate? How should the resulting process of fragmentation of the social context be interpreted? In other words, how to counter the crisis of democratic representation? This research project aims to understand if there is a political area, that can be defined homogeneously, which doesn’t determine its choices solely on the basis of resentment. What can qualify and identify this area from the point of view of the programmatic platform? What are the key words to counter populist demagogy? And finally, which characteristics can represent a new model of political, cultural, and social thinking? 

  Angelino Alfano Eoin Drea Democracy EU Member States Middle Class
• 

  Collaborative

  The Call for More Europe: Ambitions and Realities

  It is necessary to accept the fact that there is a new political reality in the European Union and a pragmatic approach should be applied. The future of the European Union depends on an adequate response to the realities of the 21st century and on the ambitions how to move integration forward. Overcoming contradictions, disputes and differences on specific issues and challenges posed by the real life can only be achieved by a strong motivation to build a genuine union. In this sense, the future of the European Union depends on several basic preconditions, expressed in the ability to develop the economy of knowledge, to meet the challenges of energy dependence and population aging, the ability to compete on the global market, the ability to be flexible in order to find the right combination of active labour market policy, flexibility, effective training and social protection; the ability to strike the right balance between openness and protection, the ability to think big, not only in a European but also in a global dimension. We need to strengthen the Union, having a fresh look and new approach.

  Eoin Drea Education Enlargement Future of Europe Neighbourhood Policy
• 

  Collaborative

  Emerging Paradigms in the Shifting Foreign and Domestic Environments: The Czech Centre-Right’s Solutions to the Political Challenges of 2022

  The European Union (EU) and its member states have recently faced a wide range of fundamental challenges. If the EU does not want to take a back seat in world affairs, it will have to strengthen its role as a global player.  Other than renewing the full operations of the single market (and its long-expected completion), we need to focus on the EU’s global role. More than half of EU citizens want the EU to assume a strong role in the international arena, especially in providing security from external threats, the fight for democracy and human rights protection.  This publication addresses the challenges related to the EU’s potential global power and assumes several points of view. The authors of this publication analyse some of the pressing problems of contemporary European society and politics. They also present specific recommendations to take advantage of the situation, to reduce the negative effects and maximise the rewards.

  Lucie Tungul Centre-Right Foreign Policy Society
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  Policy Briefs

  Ambitions Dashed: Why Sino-Russian Economic Cooperation Is Not Working

  Economic cooperation between Russia and China is widely seen as the backbone of an emerging global alliance between Moscow and Beijing. Since 2014 and the emergence of the current rift with the West over Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin has been eager to promote the idea of strengthening economic ties with China as a viable alternative to strained relations with the West, and as a sign that a new, less West-centred global economic order is emerging. Concerns about this growing Sino-Russian economic activity have scared many Western politicians, who have rushed to appease Moscow to prevent its further integration with China. However, a cross-check of the implementation of the ambitious economic agenda set out in 2014 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shows that no real integration is happening and that fundamental problems lie behind this failure. This paper explains why Russia and China’s economic cooperation plans have failed since 2014 and are not likely to succeed in the future.

  Vladimir Milov China Economy EU-Russia
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  Policy Briefs

  Climate Litigation vs. Legislation: Avoiding Excessive Judicial Activism in the EU

  On 24 March 2021 the German Federal Constitutional Court issued a decision with far-reaching consequences. The court ruled that the lack of sufficient specifications for further CO2 emission reductions from 2031 onwards in the German Climate Act ran contrary to the Constitution. In so ruling, the court narrowed the scope of action available to the legislator. Just a few weeks later a Dutch court went one step further, declaring that the oil and gas company Shell had violated its human rights obligations by failing to take adequate action to curb its contributions to climate change and global warming.

  These are just two examples of the approach to climate change that has been adopted by some courts in the EU. They coincide with the EU’s very recent legislative initiatives to promote a uniform legislative package on climate change that could act as a vehicle for the European Green Deal. We are confronted with two mutually exclusive risks: regulative overreach and efforts that are too little, too late.

  This policy brief proposes a balance between them. It demands that the legislator on the European level take a proactive role, especially in a time when climate change litigation is growing exponentially. The gap between legislative intentions and actions has been left unfilled for too long, so the courts are stepping in. To tackle a contemporary issue such as climate change, we have to find a solution to the old problem of the EU’s legitimacy and the extent to which member states have leeway in developing their own climate change policy.

  Anastas Punev Dimitar Lilkov Climate Change EU Institutions Green Deal
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  Collaborative

  Civil Society Today: Principles and Political Potential

  In addition to the separation of powers and the liberal constitutional state, active citizens who help fashion the community are central pillars of our democracy. In this respect, citizens are not only the addressees of the state’s rules and norms, but also co-creators of precisely those norms.

  The Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies and the Political Academy of the People’s Party have extensively discussed and studied just how varied and heterogeneous the concepts of the civil society are in theory and practice in its current focus of research. The diversity and pluralism of ideas of the contributions make it clear that the permanent voice and participation of an active public can enrich the political discourse and policy formulation of a country.

  The research culminated in this work, titled “Civil Society Today: Principles and Political Potential”.

  
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  European View

  Europe’s digital future: Navigating opportunities and challenges

  Digital European Union Transatlantic
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  Collaborative

  Finland, Europe and the Western Security Community: What next?

  For over a decade, the neighbourhoods of Europe have been faced with increasing external threats. It is not self-evident however that conflicts and disagreements will be solved within rules-based cooperation and established institutions. Recent actions of Russia, China, and Turkey, for example, have raised concerns. Is the EU capable enough to respond to new threats, such as hybrid and cyber warfare? Can the EU as a part of the Western security community respond to all the new challenges, and what options does Finland have – so far as a non-NATO country?

  Niklas Nováky Defence EU-Russia NATO Security
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  Research Papers

  Back to Geneva: Reinterpreting Asylum in the EU

  The Geneva Convention, adopted 70 years ago, was created as a tool for war refugees from Europe. Only with time did the Convention lift its geographical restrictions and established a universal nature of refugee protection. Today, some blame the Geneva Convention for causing the European asylum system to be unduly permissive with regard to access to asylum and other aspects of international protection.

  Based on an analysis of relevant case law and international comparisons, the paper asserts that the Geneva Convention itself cannot be linked to certain overly generous interpretations and that such an outcome was not intended by the framers of the Convention. Rather, supplementary judicial and legislative interpretations, which have accumulated over decades, have caused Europe’s asylum system to become permissive in certain aspects, compared to those of other major democratic jurisdictions.

  The paper offers several alternative views on how one may assess the differences in interpretations of the Geneva Convention between the EU, on the one hand, and Australia, the US and Canada, on the other. An examination of these differing perspectives allows us to advance operational efficiency of the EU’s asylum system by moving it closer to the original intention of the Geneva Convention.

  Vladimír Šimoňák Harald Christian Scheu Vít Novotný EU Institutions Human Rights Migration
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  Collaborative

  The European Green Deal and the Middle Class

  Our societies have been witnessing the effects of climate change, which requires a swift reaction in terms of adaptation and mitigation. The European Union (EU) presented its main instrument to address these challenges, known as the European Green Deal, in 2019. One could discuss the various measures it proposes and their applicability, but another equally important factor is how to communicate this ambitious plan to the European public.

  The Czech public does not seem to recognise that climate change will have a substantial impact on the country, their local communities, and their own lives. In order to bring about genuine change to an issue that will undoubtedly and significantly alter our lifestyles, we need to mobilise public support. This publication looks into the opportunities and challenges that the Green Deal might bring. The authors are academics, economists, environmentalists, journalists, lawyers, politicians, and practitioners and together they present a comprehensive introduction to the Green Deal debate with a special emphasis on the Czech and European middle classes. Among them, Bedřich Moldan, Luděk Niedermayer, Ivan Štefanec, Merlene Mortler, Ladislav Cabada, Soňa Jonášová, Luboš Palata, Rumiana Stoilova, Ondřej Vícha, Lucie Tungul, Arjen Siegmann, Kateřina Davidová, Tomáš Jungwirth, and Aneta Zachová.

  Lucie Tungul Climate Change Green Deal Middle Class
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  Policy Briefs

  Qualified Majority Voting in EU Foreign Policy: Make It So

  This paper makes a case for extending qualified majority voting (QMV) to the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), the Union’s main framework for collective external action. Although many EU capitals are unwilling to move away from unanimity in decision-making on CFSP, the paper argues that the benefits of introducing some QMV to this intergovernmental domain outweigh the costs. QMV would boost the resilience of the EU’s foreign-policy system to third-country influence, facilitate the emergence of a common strategic culture among the member states and mitigate the risk that the tone of common European foreign policy is set in various mini-lateral forums outside the EU. The Lisbon Treaty contains a built-in safety mechanism that is designed to ensure that no member state could be dictated to on issues vital to its national interests if QMV were to be used in CFSP. Initially, QMV should be extended only to the adoption of EU statements on international human rights questions. Although a modest step, this would help build trust and confidence among the member states, both towards each other and in the use of QMV in CFSP. If the experience was positive, this could create momentum for expanding QMV to additional CFSP areas later on.

  Niklas Nováky EU Institutions Foreign Policy
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  Future of Europe

  A Brussels-Based Dictatorship or a Paradise of Subsidiarity? National Prerogatives and EU Migration Policy

  The issues of subsidiarity and member state autonomy in asylum and migration policymaking have been present in the background of the political and legal conflicts among the EU member states. This paper demonstrates that treaty provisions on subsidiarity have been ineffective as safeguards of member state autonomy on immigration and asylum.

  Nevertheless, the treaties do endow the members with expansive autonomy in this policy area. The paper argues that this autonomy manifests itself in two different regimes that govern decision-making: intergovernmentalism and supranational consociationalism. Outside the scope of the treaties, inter-governmentalism has been effective in preventing irregular migration movements from outside the EU territory. Within the framework of the Lisbon Treaty, member states developed supranational consociationalism, an ultra-consensual decision-making regime that was first introduced in deeply divided societies. Applying this method in the EU context, the national elites have bypassed majority voting on asylum in the Council and resorted to consensus on ‘sensitive’ matters, where it is the governments affected that decide whether a given issue is sensitive.

  This paper argues that the current combination of intergovernmentalism and consociational arrangements should be maintained as it upholds political peace between the members. Nevertheless, given the ongoing problems with the rule of law in the area of immigration and asylum, the European Commission should limit member states’ non-compliance with the existing legislation.

  Vít Novotný European Union Future of Europe Migration Subsidiarity
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  Research Papers

  Reforming the European Stability Mechanism: Too Much but Never Enough

  On 27 January 2021 the member governments of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) signed the Agreement Amending the ESM Treaty, instituting long-awaited reforms to the EU’s crisis management and financial-aid mechanism. The ESM was never perfect. Set up outside the EU treaty framework, it suffered from acute accountability and legitimacy issues and, being directly controlled by eurozone governments, its procedures were subject to cumbersome voting arrangements and conflicts of interest. Finally, with its inception in the throes of the eurozone crisis, it was committed to a single rigid approach based on conditionality.

  The European Commission’s attempt to address these shortcomings in December 2017 was categorically rejected by the member states, who instead embarked on a separate reform initiative resulting in the current ESM Reform Treaty. This turn of events has been in part motivated by troubling levels of distrust between EU institutions and member states, and—as a result—between EU institutions and the ESM. The other driving force has been the political refusal to let go of the Maastricht promise of national fiscal sovereignty without shared liabilities. Thus, the ESM Reform Treaty is the culmination of a political campaign to redeem the economic compromise at the core of the Economic and Monetary Union and create an alternative arrangement for member states to avoid surrendering further competences to the EU.

  This paper finds that the ESM Reform Treaty not only fails to address the outstanding issues in the original ESM framework, but exacerbates the status quo by further empowering the Mechanism outside the legal framework of the EU treaties. The ESM’s ‘peacetime powers’ represent a consequential novelty in this regard. These ‘powers’ are in fact the ESM’s own analytical capabilities, which have been extended beyond its financial-aid function and are now applicable within the bounds of the European Semester for economic governance. Perhaps worst of all, the ESM remains an extremely limited instrument, legally designed to imagine the single scenario of a sovereign debt crisis which requires disciplinary conditionality in exchange for financial aid. It would be careless to insist on this approach for resolving the multitude of difficulties which might befall the eurozone in the future.

  Future reforms are not just advisable, they are a functional necessity. It will become increasingly difficult for the ESM to exercise its new powers or provide suitable crisis management without the efficiency and legitimacy which these adjustments could confer.

  A compromise solution could see the ESM become its own independent technocratic institution, equally removed from the political influence of governments and the reach of the Commission. Introducing flexibility in its strict conditionality could be a matter of reinterpreting the meaning of ‘sound budgetary policy’ from the Court of Justice of the European Union’s ruling in Pringle. Lastly, in matters of justiciability and the protection of fundamental rights, nothing prevents ESM governments from committing the activities of the Mechanism to the European Charter on Fundamental Rights or the authority of the European courts, should they wish to do so.

  Whatever decisions may be taken on the future of the ESM, they cannot ignore the unfolding of the EU’s fiscal response to the pandemic with Next Generation EU. Should the facility remain an exception, there would be even more pressure on the ESM to undergo another round of far-reaching reforms. However, should Next Generation EU prove a positive exercise, the EU should look to capitalise on the newfound trust by consolidating its economic and crisis governance capacities under a single flag—a certain blue one with 12 gold stars.

  Anna Peychev Eoin Drea Crisis Economy Eurozone
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  Collaborative

  Climate of the Middle: Understanding Climate Change as a Common Challenge

  There is broad support for dealing with climate change. There is consensus among scientists, support among the population and international agreements have been concluded on a sharp reduction in emissions. However, there is still a long way to go, in which the way in which policy is implemented, the technical possibilities and affordability are constantly under discussion. An additional problem is the polarisation in the public debate, a sharpening of positions which generates media attention but makes it increasingly difficult to find the right middle ground.

  For a climate policy from the middle, three questions will need to be answered. How do extreme opinions about climate arise and how can we deal with them? Who in our societies is responsible for climate policy? How can climate policy build on the existing norms and values in society so that there is support for far-reaching changes and innovations? These questions form the starting point for the contributions in this volume.

  Several scientists participated in this volume: Wouter Botzen, Francisco Estrada, Jan Gooijer, David Leiser, Dirk Schoenmaker, Arjen Siegmann, Hans von Storch and Pascal Wagner-Egger. From different disciplines (psychology, economics, law and climate science) they approach topics such as the assessment of catastrophic risks, conspiracy thinking, the nature of the climate problem, the role of the central bank, corporate taxation in a circular economy and the need for technological breakthroughs.

  Arjen Siegmann Environment Society
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  Policy Briefs

  Getting Back to Basics: Four Centre Right Steps to Economic Recovery

  Europe and the centre right simply can’t afford to get this recovery wrong. The challenge is to develop a policy approach which balances the unprecedented economic circumstances arising from the pandemic with the societal demand for more inclusive growth. Only in blending these challenges into a “Middle Way’ can the centre right hope to lead the economy recovery.

  This Policy Brief proposes four steps. (1) The unlocking of consumer spending and business investment to drive an initial economic expansion aided by tapering pandemic supports. Growth must become the immediate tool for tackling (and capping) pandemic related debt. (2) A back to basics set of priorities facilitating employment creation, affordable housing and the provision of essential public services. A ‘back to basics’ approach is necessary as it is the only way to deliver the payoffs needed to maintain support across a broad swathe of the middle classes. (3) A renewed commitment to reducing public debt and controlling inflation. Prolonged high inflation erodes purchasing power, particularly for those on fixed incomes or with savings. The optimal strategy for debt reduction is to keep debt levels steady initially, but then focus on slowly reducing it over time. Repairing public finances remains a marathon, not a sprint. (4) The centre right must play the long-term game because institutional reform (at both EU and national level) is about generational change, not soundbites. The European Recovery Fund is a long-term investment tool for achieving structural change, not a short-term mechanism for fiscal expansion. Europe’s fiscal rules also require a more easily understood framework. The ownership of these redesigned rules should rest with member states through a more decentralised Eurozone.

  Eoin Drea Centre-Right Economy Macroeconomics Middle Class
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  Research Papers

  Me, Myself and I: Could Tax Individualisation Create Jobs and Reduce Inequality?

  Throughout Europe the Covid-19 pandemic has led to lower economic growth and higher unemployment. This has resulted in a surge in public debt and an increase in gender inequalities in the labour markets of many advanced countries. This situation has stimulated interest in policies that can simultaneously boost employment, increase tax revenues and reduce labour market inequalities.

  This report investigates whether a move from family-based (i.e. joint) taxation to individual taxation would increase the labour supply of the lower-earning spouse (often the woman). It has often been argued that joint taxation decreases the employment of women because it increases the tax rate for the second earner.

  This report focuses on the situation in Germany because work disincentives for women are particularly strong in the country’s tax system. However, it is likely that the conclusions will apply to other EU countries with joint income taxation, for example, France, Poland and Portugal.

  According to our simulations, moving to individual taxation would substantially increase the labour supply in Germany and therefore also spur economic growth. Moving to individual taxation and returning the higher tax revenues to married couples (to ensure that there are no additional budgetary costs) would increase the labour supply by more than a half million full-time equivalents. This reform would lead to a measurable increase in GDP, that is, an increase of up to 1.5%.

  Such a tax reform might be a way to reduce debt levels and stimulate the economy in the face of the current massive rise in public debt and decline in GDP. It could also help reverse labour market gender inequalities, which have been exacerbated by the pandemic.

  However, since the simulated reforms produce results that are not distributed equally, ultimately a political value judgement is needed to decide whether the sizeable efficiency gains would outweigh the losses for those who would lose from the reform. Politically, the negative impact on more financially vulnerable groups may need to be addressed through further targeted tax reforms.

  Ronald Bachmann Philipp Jäger Robin Jessen Eoin Drea Economy Gender Equality Taxation
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  IN BRIEF

  Researching the Dragon – The EU Needs to Build up its Independent China Expertise

  The People’s Republic of China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is an unprecedented challenge to the European Union and to liberal democracy. The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically underscored this fact. China is now in an open rivalry with the West, not only about which political and economic system has better responded to the pandemic, but also about which system will dominate the 21st century.

  • In the EU, our knowledge about China is painfully insufficient. Expertise on China within the Union has further diminished with Brexit.

  • The little China expertise we have is increasingly dependent on Chinese funding, and its guiding narratives are therefore shaped by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its front organisations.

  • The EU should therefore create a budget line to finance China-related research and language training in the EU, within the 2021-2027 MFF budget for “External Instruments”.

  Roland Freudenstein China Foreign Policy Values
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  IN BRIEF

  The 17+1 Mechanism: Something Doesn’t Add Up

  Re-Evaluating Cooperation Between China and Central and Eastern European Countries

  In 2012 the ‘16+1’ initiative was officially launched with the aim of formalising a cooperation mechanism between Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and China. The goal of the partnership is to promote cooperation in infrastructure projects, trade, investment, and tourism, which would be beneficial to both sides. The launch came about in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent economic downturn in Europe, which brought rising unemployment in a number of EU countries and put severe strains on national budgets. China saw this as an opportunity to step up and engage with both EU and non-EU countries in order to increase its presence and open up additional export avenues. In 2019 Greece officially joined the initiative, which has since been dubbed the ‘17+1’. China’s efforts were strategic as this framework set the scene for Beijing to expand its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) onto European soil. In essence, the 17+1 mechanism should be seen as an effective conduit between CEE countries and BRI projects.

  Dimitar Lilkov Central and Eastern Europe China Foreign Policy
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  European View

  Europe’s strategic East: Rethinking the EU’s Russia and Eastern neighbourhood policy

  Eastern Europe EU-Russia Foreign Policy
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  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2020

  For the Martens Centre, 2020 was not only about adapting to a new way of working and interacting during the pandemic. It was about mapping the developments of the year and striving to come up with concrete solutions on how to face the key political issues and to prevent new ones. This Activity Report will prove that we valuably contributed to these endeavours, especially when it comes to sustainable environmental policy, economic and social systems, managing the pandemic, and defending our citizens and the Western Community.

  Theo Larue Margherita Movarelli Centre-Right EU Member States European Union Leadership
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  Research Papers

  Artificial Intelligence and Governance: Going Beyond Ethics

  Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing our world. This new phenomenon carries many threats, but also offers many opportunities. We need to find a suitable framework to support trustworthy AI. A key challenge remains: can we, as humans, retain control over the technology or will the technology take control of humanity? In responding to this challenge, the following question needs to be considered: What kinds of tools are needed, not only to keep control of AI development, but foremost to multiply the possible opportunities it offers?

  The current pandemic has shown how useful and important AI can be in helping us to fight COVID-19. Moreover, it has clearly demonstrated that we cannot afford not to utilise it, nor do we have time to lose with regard to its development.

  Hence, it is our responsibility to urgently establish an adequate framework for the development of AI systems based on a revision of the existing law and followed by possible new legislative proposals with a clear focus on future-proof tools. We have to generate a suitable governance model that not only has its foundation in law, but that also ensures democratic oversight through the open and collaborative participation of all partners and the validation of AI solutions by science and society. We should build trustworthy AI based on a human-centric and principled approach. The practical implementation of ethical rules in the design of AI (through the existing ex post model of analysing the consequences, including unintended ones, as well as a new ex ante model that provides an impact assessment in the early stages of development) and the evaluation of the everyday functioning of AI systems are essential.

  It will not be possible to develop AI and claim all its economic and social benefits without a clear model for data use (including flows, collection and processing) that fully respects fundamental rights and the principles of cybersecurity. It will not be possible to build trustworthy AI without transparent rules for the relationships between its users (workers, citizens and consumers) and AI designers, developers and deployers (with the symmetry of information required, e.g. practical schemes for ‘explainability’). It will not be possible to accurately implement various AI functionalities without undertaking risk assessments and introducing mechanisms to manage those risks.

  To achieve all of the above, we need compromises at various levels: between European institutions and stakeholders (businesses, citizens and consumers, taking into account rights), between European 10 institutions and member states (based on common and harmonised solutions), and between political groups, which are currently more focused on their differences than similarities. How can these compromises be achieved swiftly?

  The answer is multidimensional and complex; however, we should be brave enough to pursue it. Paradoxically, the unfortunate experience of COVID-19 has brought a lot of positive momentum to our search for answers, proving to be a real AI development game-changer.

  Michał Boni AI Technology
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  Collaborative

  China in the Broader Black Sea Region

  The broader Black Sea region is the scene of increasing tensions amid renewed great power competition and conflicting geopolitical and geo-economic interests. The rise of China and its solidifying regional footprint requires a better understanding of how this influence is capitalised at national and regional level, what type of challenges it creates for respective countries, and what choices decision-makers have at their disposal in this new complex and complicated geopolitical setting.

  Dimitar Lilkov Balkans China Foreign Policy
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  IN FOCUS

  Digital Economy: Regulating Digital Platforms and Intermediaries

  In the 1990s Bill Gates said: ‘As we look ahead into the next century, leaders will be those who empower others.’ He has been proven right. Over the last two decades intermediaries have emerged that empower, among others, writers and other content creators, innovators, traders, programmers, businesses and start-ups. These intermediaries are private businesses technologically enabled by digital platforms. They are the cyberspace counterparts of, for example, newsletters, pinboards, bazaars, public squares, roads and toolboxes. A new kind of digital economic ecosystem has emerged and needs to be addressed by regulation. The relevant laws are about to be changed in the US and in the EU.

  The regulation of this ecosystem needs to preserve and possibly enhance the dynamism of innovation and remain open and competitive. On private platforms existing national laws and human rights must be observed. The enforcement of the law should in principle be carried out by the government and in principle the responsibility to comply with the law lies with each of the actors involved. Platforms may voluntarily assist in law enforcement on their platforms. Moreover, platforms are free to set their own rules on who may use them and what can be done on them.

  However, some of these platforms play a pivotal and sometimes unique role which, naturally, gives rise to calls for them to be subject to regulatory oversight that would place constraints on their ability to set their own rules. Such oversight is needed to ensure that platforms are open to all users who would make lawful use of their services. It is also needed to help ensure that any rules set by the platform operators are fair and are applied in a manner that ensures free and fair competition. Regulations that attempted to stifle innovation or limit freedom of expression would be harmful. The same holds for regulations that simply tried to prevent the shift towards the platform economy for the sake of protecting the old ways of connecting customers and providers.

  Žiga Turk Dimitar Lilkov Digital Economy Regulation
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  IN BRIEF

  Immigration According to Biden

  President Trump affected immigration more than any other policy area in the US. His policies barely impacted the population of illegal immigrants. However, Trump succeeded in severely reducing the inflow of legal immigrants on green cards. He further reduced the number of non-immigrant visas. Trump enacted these reductions in legal immigration in April 2020 in response to the recession caused by COVID-19.

  Since coming to office in January 2021, the Biden administration has undertaken to restart legal immigration to help grow the US economy. It has vowed to re-instate generous refugee resettlement that has been the US norm under both Democrat and Republican presidents until 2017.  The new administration’s goal is to regularise millions of illegal migrants currently in the country, a task that is fraught with political difficulties. However, Biden has, so far, maintained Trump’s restrictive policies on the Mexican border.

  President Biden should use his lawful powers as president to expand legal immigration opportunities. Biden should also work with Congress to reduce the power of future presidents to again reduce lawful immigration.

  Alex Nowrasteh Vít Novotný Immigration
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  Policy Briefs

  Building a Gender Equality Legacy From the von der Leyen Commission

  The von der Leyen Commission has made gender equality a central component of its ambitious programme. This policy brief highlights that, notwithstanding the significant progress of recent years, barriers remain which prevent women from advancing equally in society. The first of these barriers is posed by gender stereotypes. The second concerns differences in preferences and opportunities for work–life balance. The third barrier is caused by the combined negative effects of class and gender.

  This brief sets forth a number of policy recommendations aimed at helping the von der Leyen Commission to build a lasting legacy for gender equality. Only by making profound structural changes will the current Commission achieve results that can be viewed as truly transformational.

  One recommendation is to put educational investment at the core of Europe’s Social Market Economy. The second recommendation is to develop formal childcare for children from three to school age. This is a public policy that has a positive effect on men’s and women’s attitudes towards gender equality, in addition to wider benefits for the economy, parents’ work–life balance, educational outcomes and women’s equality in general. Finally, all policies at EU level should be assessed to determine their impact across multiple barriers and policy sectors for achieving gender equality. Policies focused on vulnerable groups often overlook the fact that the barriers preventing women from utilising existing resources are found in many different areas.

  Rumiana Stoilova Eoin Drea EU Institutions Gender Equality Leadership
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  Collaborative

  The Strategic Role of External Actors in the Western Balkans

  The importance of the Western Balkans and the region’s future for the European Union can be seen by the effort the Union puts into them. European Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi announced in October 2020 that the EU plans to invest €9 billion in the region, under the Instrument for Pre-Accession (IPA III) between 2021 and 2027. Additionally, the EU aims to provide guarantees of €20 billion of investments through the new Western Balkans Guarantee Facility, and has also supported the Western Balkans in the global COVID-19 pandemic with €3.3 billion.

  Particularly in times of this pandemic and the economic crisis that accompanies it, we do not want to perceive the efforts made in the region by different countries as a race or competition. Any help is welcome and will support the region to develop further. Accordingly, this study aims to provide an objective analysis of the dimensions and nature of assistance and its strategic importance in the Western Balkans.

  We are convinced that the European Union will only be complete with the accession of the Western Balkans. Therefore, we hope that the results of this study will contribute to a better understanding about the role and concrete goals of other external actors in the region, and in further consequence will lead to an enhanced rapprochement between the EU and the countries from the Western Balkans.

  
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  Policy Briefs

  Europe and Biden: Towards a New Transatlantic Pact?

  The transatlantic relationship has been subjected to a significant stress test under the presidency of Donald Trump. Across Europe, the initial reaction to the election of Joe Biden was almost universally positive. Yet analysts tend to agree that there can be no return to the status quo ante. The world as we knew it under the Obama administration has changed in very fundamental ways, notably with the rise of an assertive China.

  Moreover, the Trump presidency has exacerbated the sharp polarisation of political preferences within the US. Bipartisan foreign policy is a feature of the past. Europe cannot assume there will be policy continuity after the next presidential election in 2024. It is time to take stock of transatlantic values and interests—which are not always in harmony—and to attempt to forge a new type of partnership across the Atlantic, one more geared to the realities of an emerging multipolar world.

  Europe should not abandon its attempts to develop a greater measure of autonomy from—or non-dependence on—the US. And the US should not see such yearnings as threatening. There will be many issues on which Europe and a Biden administration will work in harmony.

  But there will also be policy areas where friction could well arise, most notably over trade, China, Russia and the future of NATO. It would be in the interests of neither the US nor the EU for the latter to revert to the type of followership that has characterised its relations with the US since the Cold War. Only by recognising the distinctiveness of US and European values and interests will it be possible for the two sides to move towards a more balanced partnership that will confer true strength on their relationship.

  Jolyon Howorth Defence Foreign Policy Transatlantic
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  IN BRIEF

  Artificial Intelligence and Western Defence Policy: A Conceptual Note

  Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as the main engine of growth of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, owing to its naturally cross-cutting, general-purpose nature. From a military perspective, the range of potential applications is at least as vast as the current range of tasks that require human cognition, e.g., analysing and classifying visual data, organising logistics, operating vehicles, or tracking and engaging hostile targets. How can Western nations – by which I mean those nations that are members of either NATO or the European Union (or both) – make the most out of the rise of AI, bearing in mind its potential defence applications?

  Edward Hunter Christie Dimitar Lilkov AI Defence Innovation
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  Collaborative

  Demographic Changes in Slovenia and Europe

  Slovenia and Europe are facing a rapidly ageing population. According to current projections, Slovenia will be among the countries with the oldest population in the EU in 2050, and in 500 years there will be no more Slovenians. Shifts in the population’s age structure are already having an impact on all levels of our lives today; everything from pension system sustainability to healthcare capacities, economic competitiveness to various other issues.

  At the Anton Korošec Institute, in cooperation with the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, we organised our first joint project entitled Demographic challenges of Slovenia and Europe, this year. The project aims to shed light on some of the above-mentioned issues and to open a wider public debate on how we will live differently in the future. In August, a well-attended and content-rich round table was held in Ankaran. Speakers touched on the problems of population ageing and presented their views and solutions to worrying demographic trends in Slovenia and Europe. The publication that is now in front of you was created as a continuation of this project.

  EU Member States Society
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  IN FOCUS

  The Potential Outcome of the Conference on the Future of Europe in a COVID-19 World: Strengthening European Democracy

  Initially planned for 2020, the launch of the Conference on the Future of Europe has been postponed indefinitely due to the pandemic. Scheduled to run for two years, this conference will bring together Europeans institutions, civil society representatives, and citizens of all ages to debate on the future of Europe. Thus, this conference has the great merit of facing the issue of citizen participation, confirming the constant desire of strengthening European democracy. Similarly to the European Convention on the Future of Europe, this conference would also include citizen consultations, supported by a digital platform allowing online debates and contributions.

  Although it is difficult to predict the concrete outcome of this conference, major changes are not expected, but rather more reform proposals on the EU’s architecture and its decision-making processes, which will lead to deeper European integration. However, before the conference can start, the three main EU institutions must still agree on its modalities and, importantly, its chairmanship. It clearly reveals that the main difficulties barring the road to the conference are not of a technical nature, but rather political.

  Nonetheless, launching the conference as soon as possible would be a tangible, major achievement, confirming that democracy is still fully functional in Europe, despite the COVID-19 pandemic. It would confirm the European Union as an advanced democracy, and probably the biggest democracy in the world.

  Olivier Le Saëc Democracy EU Institutions Future of Europe Leadership Society
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  Policy Briefs

  The Strategic Compass: Charting a New Course for the EU’s Security and Defence Policy

  The EU has embarked on a process to develop a ‘Strategic Compass’ for its security and defence policy. This two-year process began in June 2020 and will conclude under the French EU Council Presidency in spring 2022. A German initiative, it is meant to narrow the gap between ambition and reality when it comes to the Union’s external action; facilitate the development of a shared strategic culture; and clarify the overall image of EU defence cooperation that Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), the European Defence Fund (EDF), the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) and other post-2016 initiatives have created. Broadly speaking, the Strategic Compass seeks to boost the EU’s ability to navigate through international challenges. It is driven by the member states and the European External Action Service (EEAS), with the involvement of the Commission and the European Defence Agency (EDA). To be successful, the Strategic Compass process has to be as concrete as possible in outlining how the EU should handle even its most difficult challenges. A compass is only useful if it can tell the navigator where north is. Likewise, for the Strategic Compass to be successful, the EU needs to set a clearly defined strategic north.

  Niklas Nováky Defence EU Institutions Security
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  Collaborative

  Water Management of cross-border waterbodies

  As part of the long-standing common project between the Martens Centre and the KAS Skopje Office on “Cross-Border Cooperation: Water Management between Greece and North Macedonia”, this publication comes as a result of the collaboration between professors and scientists from the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering at the Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia, and the School of Civil Engineering at the Aristotle University in Thessaloniki, Greece.

  The transboundary surface water bodies of Vardar/Axios River, Dojran/Doirani Lake and Prespa Lake have undoubtful importance at national and regional levels fostering economic prosperity and development, social integrity and environmental protection. The management of these waters at the basin scale is a step forward for achieving closer cross-border cooperation and for promoting sustainable development. The outputs of this book demonstrate the current situation, as well as the progress that has been conducted in the management of the transboundary waters of the two countries.

  Greece Neighbourhood Policy North Macedonia
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  Collaborative

  The Political Turmoil in Belarus: Current Realities and Foreseeable Prospects

  As part of the KAS-MC Discussion club, which had its 5th edition in 2020, the Martens Centre and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Belarus produced a publication bringing together three Belarusian experts to shed some light on the ongoing situation in their country. All three contributions are in both English and Russian.

  Eastern Europe EU-Russia Foreign Policy
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  Collaborative

  Removing Barriers, Promoting Responsibility: The Czech Centre-Right’s Solutions to the Political Challenges of 2021

  The year 2020 will become one of defining moments for societies across the globe, including Europe and Czechia. The coronavirus crisis revealed the weaknesses of national economies, political and party systems, the education systems, healthcare systems, labour markets, generational conflicts and also the weaknesses of the European integration process and its fragility, mostly visible in the operations of the single market and the Schengen area. The crisis reinforced the conflicts on all levels of societies and also the extent to which our well-being depends on others. While it has revealed these more or less hidden/visible weaknesses, it has not resolved any of the long-term issues; in many cases it actually reinforced them. This publication addresses several extremely important issues related to the current Czech and European experience.

  Lucie Tungul COVID-19 EU Member States
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  IN BRIEF

  The Chinese Nightmare: Debt Risks Along the Silk Road

  China has paid dearly for its geopolitical rise. The Corona crisis is the latest example of the risks involved with massive investment in the Silk Road. The megaproject, which is also known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), was launched in 2013 to underpin the rapid expansion of China’s economy by outbound investment beyond its own national borders. It encompasses infrastructure investments, development policies, investment and trade relations, and financial cooperation with the BRI partner countries. Moreover, it represents a crucial policy to foster China’s geopolitical rise, i.e., by internationalising China’s financial system and its currency, enabling a strong export-driven economy.

  The recent pandemic has caused substantial economic downturn and led to an outflow of capital in many BRI countries. The outbreak adds a new hurdle to the trade and infrastructure programme by prompting delays and disruptions, e.g., through labour shortages caused by quarantine measures. This amplifies risks attached to financing investment projects in less politically and economically stable developing countries. However, not only are many countries caught in a Chinese debt-trap, but China itself needs a strategy for managing non-performing loans amid the crisis. Loan defaults on the Silk Road could jeopardise the Chinese mega-project.

  Matthias Diermeier Florian Güldner Thomas Obst Eoin Drea China Globalisation Industry Macroeconomics
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  Policy Briefs

  Retaking the Cities: A Plan for the Centre–Right

  The social and economic role of cities, regardless of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, is set to remain crucial for global development. However, the importance of cities is not mirrored in the European centre–right political agenda. Over recent years, cities have become increasingly distant— in terms of their residents’ self-perception and voting patterns—from the rural parts of Western countries. In this context, cities are striving for more tangible powers, improved rights of self-governance and new development support tools, which would allow them to better address the challenges they face.

  The European People’s Party (EPP), the leading political family in the EU, should acknowledge the importance of cities and the fact that city-based electorates share particular political expectations. The recent string of elections in various European countries has shown that EPP-affiliated parties and candidates can only win in big cities when they adopt a more city-oriented political platform. The EPP cannot afford to lose urban voters; therefore, it should develop a ‘City Agenda’. Urban-related issues should be at the centre of the EPP’s political activity, as is the agricultural policy.

  This agenda, drawing on the experience of EPP-affiliated mayors and members of the Committee of the Regions, should identify the challenges cities face and come up with ways to address them. Among the most pressing are climate change–related themes such as public transportation and urban planning, but also the ongoing housing crisis and, more broadly, rising social inequality. This paper suggests that the EPP could promote a new ‘EU Cities Fund’, a city-tailored, directly accessible fund that would add financial heft to the EU’s existing urban policy.

  Konrad Niklewicz Federico Ottavio Reho Centre-Right Elections Leadership Political Parties
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  IN FOCUS

  The New Pact on Migration: A Set of Innovative Proposals with an Uncertain Outcome

  The New Pact on Migration and Asylum represents a welcome step in the reform of Europe’s asylum and migration policies. By favouring a reduction in irregular migration headed to the EU, repatriations of irregular migrants, increased refugee resettlements, greater external border protection and more efficient asylum procedures, the Pact represents a step towards a sustainable interpretation of the Refugee Convention by the EU and its members. The Pact also offers new ideas on burden-sharing which may be more acceptable to the EU members than the previous proposals on permanent mandatory relocations of asylum seekers.

  Although following the publication of the New Pact all the member states have indicated a willingness to negotiate, it is going to require considerable patience and goodwill to reach an agreement that will satisfy national sensitivities while also serving the overall EU interest.

  Vít Novotný EU Institutions Migration
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  IN BRIEF

  Implications of the 2020 US Presidential Election for the EU

  The US presidential election on 3 November is likely to be consequential for America’s future and leadership on the world stage. However, it will also have implications for the EU as the two main candidates, President Donald Trump and former Vice-President Joe Biden, have different visions for the future of transatlantic relations and EU-US cooperation.

  Niklas Nováky Roland Freudenstein Defence Elections EU-US Transatlantic
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  European View

  The Great Reset: What COVID-19 Means for Europe

  COVID-19
• 

  IN BRIEF

  A Marathon, not a Sprint: A Six Point Plan to Build Confidence, Create Jobs and Repair Public Finances

  Coronavirus has fundamentally altered the economic and social environment for billions of people around the world. The tragedy of this immense human loss has been compounded by significant economic dislocation and severe social strains, arising from the required public health restrictions. As a result, the broader economic response of the EU to the pandemic (with the exception of direct healthcare priorities) must now focus on a considerably longer time horizon.

  Eoin Drea Economy Eurozone Growth Macroeconomics
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  Collaborative

  The (Post)Covid Era: The Middle Class in Focus

  The publication examines the various aspects of these turbulent times and their impact on the Czech and European societies, with a special emphasis on the middle class. It was the (often) painful experience of the ‘quarantined’ middle class that exposed what it needs to flourish and not perish in the future.  The authors uncover the threats and the opportunities related to the current situation, and provide recommendations for centre-right parties, who have most often represented the interests of the middle class, currently most endangered class by the effects of the pandemic. The centre-right parties (together with the centre-left) will be in danger, too, if they do not present straightforward programmatic goals for the future of the middle class and honest leadership skills capable of cooperation and solidarity. Otherwise, we face the danger of further destabilisation of the political scene and the dismantling of liberal democracy.

  Lucie Tungul Crisis Economy Middle Class Society
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  IN BRIEF

  For a More Robust Approach Towards China in European Trade and Investment Policy

  China is no longer only a partner, but increasingly also a systemic competitor, due to the continued enforcement of state capitalism under Xi Jinping. The hope for change through trade has not been fulfilled, as the growing influence of the Chinese Communist Party shows. Trust in the Chinese leadership has been eroded in recent years due to an aggressive global raw materials strategy, expansive moves in Southeast Asia, the Belt and Road Initiative, the 17+1 initiative, and the interference with Hong Kong most recently.​

  Jürgen Matthes Eoin Drea China Economy Foreign Policy Trade
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  IN BRIEF

  The Constitutional Basis for Sweden’s Exceptional COVID-19 Policy

  The Swedish policy response to COVID-19 is exceptional by international standards. This In Brief explains how this approach is determined by three articles in the Swedish Constitution. The first guarantees freedom of movement for Swedish citizens, ruling out nationwide lockdowns. The second establishes unique independence for public agencies, allowing them to design the policy response to the pandemic. The third grants exceptional powers to local government. In addition, the Swedish approach is fostered by strong trust in the government and in public authorities.

  Lars Jonung Eoin Drea COVID-19 EU Member States Leadership Social Policy
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  Policy Briefs

  A Europe That Protects Its Heritage

  This policy brief analyses the competences and potential of the EU in the field of cultural heritage protection. Despite numerous references to culture and heritage in the EU treaties, the analysis suggests that the Union’s focus on cultural heritage remains limited and does not adequately reflect the magnitude of recent challenges.

  In the last decade of financial and economic difficulties, Europe’s cultural heritage has suffered from major funding cuts. This is now being compounded by the devastating consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the culture and heritage sectors. Climate change also represents a growing threat to cultural sites across the EU, and the successes of right-wing Eurosceptic populism have changed the politics of cultural heritage. The EU is routinely portrayed as a remote post-national technocracy bent on overcoming separate national identities and lacking a commitment to the continent’s common historical heritage.

  This paper argues that all these developments have created the conditions for considerable ‘European added value’—economic, social and political—to be realised by stepping up EU action for the protection of the continent’s cultural heritage. Currently ongoing negotiations for the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF 2021–7) and for the post-COVID-19 recovery fund that is tied to it (the ‘Next Generation EU’ initiative) offer a unique opportunity to advance this important agenda.

  Federico Ottavio Reho Theo Larue Economy EU Member States European Union Values
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  Policy Briefs

  Towards a Sovereign Europe – A Centre-Right Approach

  As the debate on European sovereignty has gained traction in recent years, Europe’s centre-right should develop its own distinct vision of European sovereignty, one that reflects its own priorities and values.

  This policy brief aims to develop a tentative theoretical and historical framework that can be used to work out what this conservative and Christian Democratic vision could look like. It argues that it is important for the centre-right to ensure that its vision stands apart from those of both the nationalist populists on its right and social-liberals on its left. Against populists the centre-right needs to show that conservatism and European integration can be compatible. As the historical overview in the paper shows, conservatives throughout history have supported processes of political and economic centralisation as long as these have taken place in piecemeal fashion and the resulting institutions have reproduced in their conduct and outlook the values conservatives stand for. Against the centralisers on the centre-left, who are currently monopolising the slogan ‘more Europe’, the centre-right must articulate more clearly how its own understanding of EU integration is a more pragmatic, effective and viable way forward. Contrary to progressives, who view European and international institutions as instruments of ideologically-driven social change, European conservatives see institutions as expressions and safeguards both of diversity inside the EU and of the distinctly European imprint on world politics externally.

  The paper offers a first outline of how a conservative perspective on EU sovereignty could be applied to a range of policy areas, from foreign policy to economic governance to migration.

  Angelos Chryssogelos Centre-Right EU Institutions EU Member States Future of Europe Integration
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  IN BRIEF

  COVID-19 and the Old-New Politics of Irregular Migration from Libya

  Unless you live in Malta, you might not have noticed an unprecedented search and rescue crisis that has revolved around this island nation since April of this year. What in normal circumstances would have occupied headlines across Europe, has nearly been driven into the background by the dramatic events surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic both in Europe and globally.

  This crisis has been spurred by a progressive increase in illegal border crossings from Libya towards Malta and Italy. In turn, this increase is a result of at least two factors. The first is mass joblessness among Libya’s large migrant population, caused by an economic decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing conflict inside the country. The second is a resumption of the activities of migrant smugglers, tolerated by the officially recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). The health crisis has confirmed Libya as the main North African country serving as a departure point for Europebound irregular migrants.

  The pandemic and its consequences for irregular migration are highlighting the challenge that Libya, as a relatively wealthy but dangerous and conflict-ridden country, continues to pose to European politicians 

  Vít Novotný Crisis EU Member States European Union Migration
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  IN BRIEF

  State of play in the Libyan Civil War

  The recent deployment of Russian fighter jets to Libya is a dangerous escalation of an already complicated and bloody conflict, with a surge in civilian casualties. The civil war raging in Libya has, in effect, created a situation where outside powers (mainly Russia and Turkey) are vying for control of Libya’s future and trying to expand their footholds in the Eastern Mediterranean. This escalation not only affects Libya, but it is also impeding on the effort of solving other regional issues such as illegal trafficking of both people and drugs, terrorism, and border disputes in the Maghreb and Sahel regions.

  Magnus Norell Crisis European Union Foreign Policy Mediterranean
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  Policy Briefs

  Rethinking EU Crisis Management – From Battlegroups to a European Legion?

  This paper discusses an idea to create a European Legion that has been put forward by Radoslaw Sikorski, MEP. This would be a new kind of EU military unit, made up of volunteers rather than national contingents contributed by the member states. The idea stems from Sikorski’s desire to reform the EU’s existing battlegroups, which have been operational for 15 years but have never been used, despite numerous opportunities. The paper argues that although the EU’s 2007 Lisbon Treaty imposes heavy restrictions on the Union’s ability to deploy military force, it does not rule out conducting operations with a volunteer force. At the same time, a volunteer-based European Legion force would have to be created initially by a group of member states outside the EU framework. These states could then make it available to the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy as, for example, a permanent battlegroup. An existing model would be the multinational Eurocorps.

  Niklas Nováky Crisis Defence EU Institutions EU Member States
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  IN BRIEF

  Putting Women at the Heart of Europe’s Recovery

  People across Europe are suffering. They are scared of becoming ill, uncertain about their economic future and still worried about the well-being of their parents and grandparents.

  But men and women are feeling this crisis differently. For example, while more men than women are tragically dying from COVID-19, more women are on the frontlines providing care, with women accounting for almost 80% of healthcare workers, 76% of the 49 million care workers, and 82% of cashiers within the EU. The impact of this virus is different for men and women, and to build a recovery that works for all people, we must acknowledge this core difference and tailor our response to it.

  France Fitzgerald Crisis Economy European Union Society
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  IN BRIEF

  EU Trade Policy as an Economic Recovery Tool

  Rules-based trade is under attack, and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is at risk of marginalisation. The COVID-19 pandemic and its detrimental effects on public health, value chains, and industrial production have brought back national export restrictions and stopped the free flow of goods and people. Buzz words such as ‘decoupling’, ‘sovereignty’ and ‘autarky’ have quickly returned to the global stage. However, COVID-19 is not the first shock to global trade. The WTO is already facing an existential crisis due to a deadlock in negotiations, blockage of institutional reforms, and paralysis of the dispute settlement mechanism (DSM). Nevertheless, there is hope that countries experiencing the effects of disrupted trade means the EU can take the lead in global reform efforts.

  COVID-19 Crisis Economy Globalisation Trade
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  IN BRIEF

  COVID-19 and Technology in the EU: Think Bigger than Apps

  One of the most pertinent questions posed during the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak is whether technology can be successfully utilised to mitigate the spread of the virus or otherwise limit its impact on everyday life. This In Brief takes stock of the technological measures taken in several Asian countries as a reaction to the outbreak and examines the recent response of European Union member states. The text also maps out workable solutions and important future considerations on the digital front for the EU. 

  Dimitar Lilkov COVID-19 Crisis European Union Innovation Technology
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  Policy Briefs

  Development Aid, Migration and Conditionality – The Case of the Marshall Plan with Africa

  This policy brief analyses the current efforts by the EU and its member states to provide development aid to third countries. It concentrates on the Marshall Plan with Africa. Proposed by Germany, this plan is intended to bring cooperation between Europe and Africa to a new level. The study examines this plan in light of debates on the impact of development aid on third countries in general, and on migratory dynamics in particular. The specific focus is on aid conditionality related to cooperation on migration. The brief shows that increasing development aid does not necessarily lead to a decrease in migration. The available evidence suggests that conditionality in the provision of development aid is not effective in reducing the propensity to migrate. 

  The policy brief makes recommendations for future EU–Africa cooperation. It suggests that, to ensure a regular dialogue between the two continents, Africa should remain high on the agendas of both the EU and member states. Following the approach taken by the Marshall Plan with Africa, the brief argues that migration-related conditions should be attached to the provision of development aid only with caution. Aid ought to be primarily targeted at creating good governance and strengthening public services.

  The views expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the author. They are not necessarily shared by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies or the European People’s Party.

  Lívia Benko Development European Union Migration
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  IN FOCUS

  Looking Beyond Coronabonds: What COVID-19 Means for the Future of the Eurozone

  The pandemic has created an unprecedented level of uncertainty, mainly because we do not know how long it will last. This affects the economic implications. Two facts are clear: there will be a recession and budget deficits will have to soar. This note draws some implications beyond the immediate health concerns. In many ways, they challenge the architecture of the Eurozone. Either the architecture will change or the Eurozone as we know it will cease to exist. During the sovereign debt crisis from 2010 to 2015, the architecture was changed just as the Eurozone was on the verge of losing one or more members, with unmeasurable consequences. Will history repeat itself? 

  Charles Wyplosz Eoin Drea COVID-19 Crisis Economy EU Institutions Eurozone
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  IN BRIEF

  Does the EU have sufficient healthcare competences to cope with COVID-19?

  During the last decade or so, the European Union has been spared little in the way of dramatic crises: the biggest financial meltdown since the Great Depression, the largest refugees’ inflow since the massive population transfers that concluded WWII, and now the deadliest epidemic in over a century. In conjunction with each of them, a reasonable case could be made, and has been made, that the best solution was a ‘federal’ EU state responsible for, respectively, fiscal and economic policy, migration policy, and now health policy. 

  Federico Ottavio Reho COVID-19 Crisis EU Institutions EU Member States Resources
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  European View

  New Perspectives on Migration Policies

  
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  IN FOCUS

  The EU’s Security and Defence Policy: The Impact of the Coronavirus

  The current COVID-19 pandemic will change the world, like the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 9/11 terror attacks. For the foreseeable future, EU governments will be preoccupied with dealing with the pandemic’s immediate socio-economic consequences. However, other policy areas will be affected as well. With regard to the EU’s security and defence policy, COVID-19 is likely to extinguish the unprecedented dynamism that has characterised its development since 2016. Its most immediate impact is likely to be decreased funding for several new initiatives such as the European Defence Fund. The pandemic is also likely to reduce the EU’s readiness to address crises in its neighbourhood and may hasten the Union’s relative decline as a global power if its recovery is slow and wrought by prolonged disputes between the member states over the appropriate economic response to the crisis. Yet, the EU should not completely abandon its pre-COVID-19 security and defence agenda. Both during and after the pandemic, the Union will continue to face familiar challenges such as cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and instability in its neighbourhood.

  Niklas Nováky COVID-19 Crisis Defence Security
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  Policy Briefs

  EU Human Rights Promotion in Central Asia – Between the Dragon and the Bear

  This policy brief argues that the EU risks negative consequences if it continues to let economic interests prevail over its stated aim of promoting human rights in its relations with Central Asia. The strengthening of authoritarian regimes in Central Asia has led to the growth of social tensions and an increase in the number of possible hotbeds of radicalisation in the region, both of which, in turn, pose direct threats to the EU in matters of security, the influx of migrants and the protection of investments. In order to address these challenges, and taking into account the influence of Russia and China in the region, the EU should increase the effectiveness of its projects in the fields of education, health care, civil and political freedoms, good governance, justice reform and support for local civil society. The EU must make it evident to Central Asian states that strengthening cooperation with the Union offers these countries significant socio-economic benefits which cannot be gained from cooperation with China or Russia.

  Igor Savchenko Andrii Osavoliuk Kateryna Savchenko European Union Foreign Policy Human Rights
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  IN BRIEF

  Whatever it takes, for as long as is needed: Mapping a new European Recovery Programme

  At its core, the Coronavirus (COVID19) pandemic is a human tragedy. However, it has also become clear that the negative economic and social impacts are deeper and broader than were first anticipated. The continuing spread of this virus and the required measures to contain it have resulted in a concurrent slowdown in all major global economies. This represents an unprecedented challenge to the economic integrity of the EU, its constituent member states, and the global trading framework.

  Eoin Drea COVID-19 Crisis Economy EU Institutions Eurozone
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  IN BRIEF

  “Flexibility without Limits”. The Political Economy Implications of the Coronavirus

  The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is continuing to spread quickly around the world. It is a highly transmissible virus which impacts disproportionally on older age cohorts. Large gaps in our understanding remain, particularly with regard to the possible extent of undiagnosed cases and whether the virus will naturally reduce in Europe as the spring develops. However, as of March 16 th, over 170,000 global cases have been confirmed with over 6,500 deaths. All European countries are now preparing for large increases in the number of affected people requiring treatment and hospital care. On March 11th , COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organisaton.

  Understandably, much of the current commentary on the virus still focusses on the fluid situation regarding the number of infections, the mortality rate and the differing containment measures enacted by varying states. The level of societal unease at the implications of the virus – restricted activities span all aspects of daily life from cinemas to cafes, from schools to universities and businesses – is currently dominating the media discourse. Such a focus reflects the overwhelming priority of all societies to protect human health where possible.

  Eoin Drea COVID-19 Crisis Economy European Union Society
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  IN BRIEF

  A Geopolitical, 5G Europe? Brussels needs to go big, or go home

  Perhaps, when the history of European integration in the early 21st century is written, 5G will be viewed as the beginning of Europe’s geopolitical renaissance. Although, that currently seems very unlikely. Because it’s hard to escape the overwhelming feeling in Brussels that a greying, slowing Europe is now stuck in a technological blindspot behind the two global superpowers of the United States and China.

  5G sums up the EU’s ability to constantly punch below its weight on a geopolitical level. It also symbolises how Brussels has totally failed to leverage its significant (and often underestimated) economic strength to project its wider political priorities.

  Honesty is clearly needed in Brussels because advocating for greater subsidiarity within the EU while simultaneously calling for a more geopolitical Europe is resulting in a clear dilemma. You simply can’t be a global power if there are 27 (or more) potential veto’s sitting around the table. What is required is not a universal abandonment of the EU’s competition or industrial legislation, but rather a more agile, more nuanced understanding that in select, geopolitically important areas, Europe must work together if it is to protect its interests on the global stage.

  Eoin Drea Economy European Union Industry Innovation
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  Research Papers

  Making a More European Britain: The Political, Economic and Societal Impacts of Brexit

  This paper sets out how Brexit is pushing the UK towards aligning more closely with the rest of Europe in its politics, society, economics and international position. This is the result of longrunning trends coupled with the political tumult created by the 2016 referendum and the effects of the negotiations that followed. The emergence of pro-Europeanism as a political force is one of the most important and obvious changes.

  Brexit has also confronted the British with several realities about the UK’s economy, society and place in the world that show it to be more European than many will have recognised. In addition, the process of withdrawal has exposed the decentralisation and fragmentation of the formerly exceptionally unitary UK state that began in the 1990s, with tensions emerging from Scotland and Northern Ireland voting to remain while England (with the exception of London) and Wales voted to leave.

  However, none of this should be taken to mean that divergence from Europe will not happen or be sought, or that the British people will eventually vote to rejoin.

  Tim Oliver Garvan Walshe Eoin Drea Brexit
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  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2019

  There is no doubt that 2019 was an eventful year which brought us many opportunities, but it was also one filled with challenges and changes. Not only did it deliver the new European Parliament, but it also brought us the new Commission which will be in place for the next five years.

  Marina Bulatović Margherita Movarelli Centre-Right EU Member States European Union Leadership
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  Research Papers

  Lifting the Integration Veil: Outcasts from Islam in Western Europe

  In the current debates about Islam, scarce attention is devoted to the long-term integration of different cultures within a system based on the rule of law and individual liberties. With specific reference to the prevalent culture among Muslims of immigrant descent in Western Europe, quantitative surveys and reports show the persistence of a divergence from mainstream views on topics such as gender equality, religious freedom and sexual orientation. The primary victims of this phenomenon are to be found within the Muslim communities themselves: the ‘outcasts’ who, in spite of their Muslim background, do not adhere to the prevalent cultural code and may become targets of hostility. The lack of adequate integration policies for newcomers and the absence of socio-cultural interconnections between many Muslims and the native European populations deepen the divide, thereby reinforcing the Islamic identity at the expense of the national one, and fostering prejudice on both sides.

  To promote liberal democratic rules and values both among newcomers and within the wider society, integration policies should be adopted in the framework of school curricula, reception centres and integration courses. These measures should always be tailored to individuals, rather than the ethno-religious groups to which they belong. It is also paramount to bring together, as much as possible, people of different backgrounds and ethnicities, in order to foster intercultural exchanges. All this would not lead to a levelling, monocultural model, but a pluricultural one focused on individuals and their chosen identity. All cultures or traditions are to be accepted and embraced, as long as they respect the rule of law and individual liberties.

  Tommaso Virgili Vít Novotný Integration Religion Social Policy Values
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  Research Papers

  Fine-Tuning Europe: How to Win the Global FinTech Race?

  The term ‘financial technology’ (FinTech) refers to technology-enabled innovation in the financial sector. FinTech could result in new business models, products and services. It has been rapidly developing around the world, offering innovative products and services that are quickly gaining traction with consumers and investors. Different countries and regions around the world are finding themselves caught up in this fast-paced ecosystem, where their competitiveness depends on a variety of factors, including the interaction of different market players, access to funding and talent, and regulatory measures. This paper examines the latest developments in specific financial technologies, major financial services and product providers. It also looks at the conditions which are shaping financial centres’ competitive significance in FinTech on a global scale.

  
  Recent trends suggest that the US and China are emerging as key hubs for unlocking the disruptive potential of financial innovation in terms of the scale of their FinTech businesses and investments compared to Europe. For the comparatively smaller and younger European FinTech companies it would be challenging to compete with them without favourable government initiatives and support. The EU has already undertaken certain measures and initiatives in order to nurture its FinTech firms, but at the moment it lacks a targeted, EU-wide approach to FinTech. The policy landscape remains rather fragmented with different national approaches to legislation and regulation. The paper examines the current EU policies, initiatives and frameworks for the purpose of providing forward-looking policy recommendations for a more competitive and innovative single European market in the financial sector.

  Tsvetelina Kuzmanova Dimitar Lilkov European Union Industry Innovation Technology
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  Research Papers

  Made in China: Tackling Digital Authoritarianism

  Digital authoritarianism is no future prospect. It is already here. The People’s Republic of China has institutionalised draconian measures for citizen surveillance and censorship, as well as gaining almost full control of online political discourse. The Chinese Social Credit System is an intricate extension of this tactic. A coordinated administrative system which feeds on data from different governmental sources and has the ability to sanction and publicly shame individuals would be a powerful tool in the hands of the Chinese Politburo. In parallel, China is pursuing an aggressive agenda of techno-nationalism which aims to move the country closer to technological self-sufficiency and to maximise the penetration of its technological giants on the global stage. The majority of these digital champions have been nurtured by generous public subsidies and successfully shielded from international competition.

  This research paper analyses the unique features of the Chinese model of digital authoritarianism and its international spill-overs. China’s oppressive model is no longer just applied domestically but is successfully being exported to other countries across different continents. As a new decade begins, the EU must make sure that its citizens have the necessary institutional and legal protection from abuses of modern technology such as facial-recognition software and the advanced application of AI. Europe must remain a global influence when it comes to ensuring a coherent regulatory approach to technology and stand ready to oppose the spread of digital authoritarianism.

  Dimitar Lilkov China Democracy Economy European Union Innovation Technology
• 

  IN BRIEF

  The EU and the Prospect of a New Migration Wave from Turkey

  There is a good reason not to reach straight for the panic button as a reaction to increased irregular migration flows from Turkey. Since signing the migration deal with the EU, Turkish President Erdoğan has been trying to rattle the European’s nerves with threats of a new migrant inflow. However, the EU’s position vis-à-vis Turkey is not as weak as it appears. 

  The Turkish government has, in fact, expressed strong interest in continued European financial support for Syrian refugees residing in Turkey. Also, the EU and Greece are better prepared for a migration crisis, than they were in 2015. The worst-case scenario of hundreds of thousands making it from Turkey to Greece is very unlikely. Even if such a scenario were to happen, the EU could unilaterally abolish its customs union with Turkey, terminate the preferential treatment for Turkish agriculture products and halt arms exports to the country. Given the undesirability of this scenario, diplomacy is a much more preferable option. 

  Vít Novotný European Union Foreign Policy Immigration Migration
• 

  IN FOCUS

  East Versus West: Is There Such a Thing as a European Society?

  The East-West divide in the EU has recently received much attention. While certain national leaders on both sides have tried to capitalise on it politically, data on the attitudes of the general public in the two subregions convey a more complex picture.

  This paper analyses European polling data on people’s attitudes regarding several key societal questions. It concludes that the opinions of Western and Eastern European populations are in fact converging on key societal issues, and that EU policies should reflect this growing consensus.

  Michael Benhamou Federico Ottavio Reho Democracy European Union Religion Society Values
• 

  Future of Europe

  Creating a decentralised Eurozone

  A decade after the crisis that came close to destroying it, the Eurozone remains fragile. Fiscal indiscipline, a key cause of the crisis, remains a relevant issue. Progress has been made to make the banking system safer, but much more is required to contain risk. Eurozone governance remains weak. This paper argues that six key steps are required to refashion the Eurozone into a robust monetary union capable of dealing with unexpected shocks in the future. These steps are:

  • Subsidiarity should be rigorously applied to straighten the existing muddled governance structures
  • Banking Union needs to be completed to break the doom loop between banks and governments
  • Pan-European banks and fully integrated financial markets offer the best solution to absorb national disturbances. Implicit protectionism – through regulations and support for national champions – should not be accepted
  • The responsibility for fiscal discipline must lie where the budget authority is exercised: at the national level
  • The no-bailout clause is the best protection against fiscal indiscipline. It should be formally restored
  • Some countries with large public debts remain vulnerable to market sentiment fluctuations. However, there are ways to reduce these debts without any transfer or mutual guarantees

  Charles Wyplosz Eoin Drea Federico Ottavio Reho EU Institutions EU Member States Eurozone Future of Europe Macroeconomics
• 

  Research Papers

  Rescue Operations in the Mediterranean: Towards a Reliable EU Policy

  Search and rescue (SAR) in the central Mediterranean continue painting a disturbing portrait of European disunity on disembarkations and relocations of the rescued passengers. This research paper provides a more optimistic outlook. It argues that, despite the inter-governmental conflicts, which remain unresolved, the EU states have been developing a two-segment policy which has greatly reduced the numbers of irregular maritime arrivals via the central Mediterranean route. The European policy segment has consisted of SAR operations by the individual South European member states, ad-hoc arrangements following disembarkations and a coordinated withdrawal from the Libyan SAR zone.

  The EU’s Afro-Asian policy segment has been based on the prevention of illegal border crossings and support for Libya and the other North African countries in running their own border control and SAR operations. The EU should be moving towards a policy that balances the traditional rights-based SAR system that primarily guarantees the rights of individuals with a functioning rules-based system that encourages adherence to international norms by all the countries around the Mediterranean. The EU needs to continue addressing the human rights abuses in the Libyan detention centres, without compromising on the imperative that the Libyan coastguard should continue bringing the rescued migrants back to their country.

  Vít Novotný Human Rights Mediterranean Migration North Africa
• 

  Policy Briefs

  NGO Lobbying on Trade and Investment: Accountability and Transparency at the EU Level

  Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are an indispensable part of civil society. However, NGO influence on policymaking is not always positive. A large number of well-connected NGOs explicitly aim to influence trade and investment policymaking. Some of the most influential NGOs that have campaigned against vital EU trade and investment policy objectives have received substantial funding from the European Commission and national governments.

  This study calls on EU policymakers to ensure that NGOs financed by the EU do not fundamentally contradict the EU’s basic principles. Among other things, the study calls for a comprehensive reform of the EU’s Transparency Register and Financial Transparency System. This should include the introduction of a single, centralised system for recording and managing NGO grant funding.

  Matthias Bauer European People's Party European Union Society Trade Transatlantic
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Putting Childcare at the Heart of the Social Market Economy

  Times are changing yet again. Families are becoming smaller, populations are ageing, fertility is declining and mothers are tending to be older. There are also changes in the structure of work, including outsourcing, casual employment, self-employment and zero-hour contracts. This policy brief argues that childcare is essential to enabling women to participate in the workforce. It underwrites women’s essential contribution to the economy and promotes gender equality. In an increasingly busy world, it provides families with a greater range of choices. Quality childcare also has positive benefits for the well-being of young children.

  Helen Penn Centre-Right Education Social Policy Society
• 

  European View

  Cool politics: A centre–right strategy on climate

  
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• 

  Other

  Recommendations for the new European Commission President

  On 16 July 2019, the European Parliament elected Ursula von der Leyen president of the European Commission by a narrow majority of nine votes. To be elected, von der Leyen had to make numerous concessions to the Socialists and Liberals—and to the Greens, even though they had announced they would not support her in the vote. This document recommends areas where action by the new Commission would be considered beneficial from a centre–right perspective. It does so selectively, without addressing all the possible areas of initiative. The recommendations are designed to highlight general areas of action, give a sense of direction and offer ideas, as opposed to prescribing specific measures. Thus, the authors intend this to be a discussion paper that contributes to the public debate on the priorities of the next Commission.

  Dimitar Lilkov Eoin Drea Federico Ottavio Reho Niklas Nováky Vít Novotný Roland Freudenstein EU Institutions European Union Future of Europe Leadership
• 

  Collaborative

  Middle Class at a Crossroads

  The middle class and its connection with various different social phenomena and their impact on our society is a very complex topic that requires an interdisciplinary approach when attempting to capture the individual aspects and influences. The term “middle class” is used in everyday speech by many politicians and journalists and is traditionally associated with centre-right politics, the assumption being that the middle class, as the guarantee of stability and prosperity, lies at the very heart of liberal democracy. This book aims to define the concept of the Czech middle class. It also intends to analyse and evaluate its economic, social and political aspects in the local as well as wider European contexts.

  Lucie Tungul EU Member States Middle Class
• 

  Research Papers

  The Renewal of Vows: A New Transatlantic Chapter for Europe and America

  Since the end of the Second World War, every US administration has promoted European recovery, transatlantic cooperation and joint defence. Common interests, together with common principles and values, constituted the bedrock of the post-war partnership between Europe and the US. NATO became an alliance of both interests and values.

  Today, however, the transatlantic partnership is facing a new series of challenges. Of these, two are of particular importance: one external, the other internal. The external challenge concerns the rise of two great revisionist powers, Russia and China, as well as Islamic terrorism. The internal challenge is the declining willingness of the US to defend the international order it created and the fracturing of the core of this system. These global shifts are forcing the Atlantic partnership to re-examine its common interests, its common values, its capabilities and its strategic objectives.

  This paper argues that there is a need for a new grand bargain that would lead to a more equal transatlantic partnership. The goals are stronger trade relationships through revitalised negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and a more even defence relationship that addresses both the question of burden sharing and the disparity in military capability between Europe and the US.

  Constantine Arvanitopoulos EU-US Foreign Policy Trade Transatlantic
• 

  Research Papers

  Strategic Autonomy: Why It’s Not About Europe Going it Alone

  • Jolyon Howorth

  The EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy was launched in 1998 as a quest for ‘autonomy’. The EU sought the capacity to stabilise its volatile neighbourhood without undue reliance on the US. Almost two decades of efforts have failed to deliver on that objective. But as EU leaders, post-Brexit, re-launch the Common Security and Defence Policy, as the 2016 European Global Strategy rediscovers the virtues of ‘strategic autonomy’, and as the world juggles with a US president who appears to question the very bases of the Atlantic Alliance, it is time to radically re-think the relations between the EU and NATO.

  This paper argues that, in the longer term, it is through strengthening the EU–NATO relationship, rather than by focusing on defence initiatives undertaken by the Union alone, that EU strategic autonomy will become possible. This will, at the same time, consolidate rather than weaken the transatlantic bond.

  Jolyon Howorth Brexit Defence Foreign Policy Security Transatlantic
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Financing a Sustainable and Competitive Economy: Next Steps for the EU

  A restructuring of the global economy towards lower carbon goods and services is under way. The EU’s global competitiveness hinges on consistent investment in the accelerated transformation of its energy sector and industrial base. At the same time, reducing current differences between Eastern and Western Europe in terms of the economic risks and opportunities of the transition is crucial for the  continued  stability  of  the  eurozone.  This  policy  brief  argues  that  the  EU needs to fully align public and private financial flows behind this transformation and to support this by assessing and managing the macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary impacts of the transition.

  Lisa Fischer Dimitar Lilkov Economy Environment Macroeconomics
• 

  Research Papers

  Thin on the Ground: Recalibrating EU-Turkey Engagement in Syria

  Since the time that the popular uprisings in Syria mushroomed into a civil war, prospects for a negotiated political settlement have been thwarted because of the myriad diverging interests of the regime, local opposition groups, and regional and global actors, all of which are vying for power and influence in the country. Europe is deeply troubled by the human rights situation in the country. However, as currently organised, the EU lacks the foreign- and defence-policy mechanisms that would allow it to make a significant impact on the conflict.

  Any chance of influencing the situation that the EU may have had in the beginning of the conflict dissipated relatively quickly. This paper recommends that the EU broadens its policy options and engages in ‘linkage politics’ with key powers, particularly Turkey, which has shared interests on certain fronts and direct influence on the ground in Syria. The EU has a long-standing relationship with Turkey, which was developed through the EU accession and customs union processes and more recently in connection with migration management.

  Its concerns about Turkey’s descent into authoritarianism notwithstanding, the EU should build on this relationship to promote, as much as possible, a democratic, stable, just and prosperous Syria and greater Middle East region. More specifically, this broader policy framework should emphasise deeper and more sustained coordination of humanitarian responses, border management and de-mining. It should also stress the need for inclusive economic growth as concerns both the displaced Syrian private sector operating in Turkey and its Turkish business counterpart.

  Christina Bache Niklas Nováky Democracy Foreign Policy Human Rights Middle East
• 

  IN BRIEF

  European Parliament Elections: the Disinformation Challenge

  The aim of the current In Brief is to explore the possible disinformation threats in view of the European elections in May 2019. European voters are exposed to similar negative narratives and strategic disinformation campaigns which managed to influence a large number of citizens in the run-up of the US Presidential election and UK European Union membership referendum in 2016. The analysis also explores ways to tackle future malign information operations by proposing  specific  policy  recommendations  for strengthening the European and national institutional capacity and also obliging digital companies  to  improve  their  efforts  in  the  fight against disinformation. 

  Dimitar Lilkov Elections EU Institutions EU Member States Internet Technology
• 

  IN BRIEF

  Why Italy should spell the end of Europe’s fiscal rules

  Here we go again. With slowing growth, increasing debt and an uncertain global environment, Italy faces another budgetary crisis in 2019.  Once again Rome will face Brussels in a battle for fiscal sovereignty. The result? Either another political fudge or the end of Europe’s current fiscal rules as a credible policy tool. This In Brief argues that there is an alternative to engaging in repeated political arguments about existing fiscal rules.  Rather, the EU should recognise the fundamental weaknesses in the governance of the eurozone.  A move towards a more decentralised monetary union based on the concepts of national fiscal autonomy and a credible no-bailout rule is now essential.  Only then will the eurozone have a realistic chance of long-term survival.

  Eoin Drea Economy EU Member States Eurozone Macroeconomics
• 

  European View

  Subsidiarity in the EU: From principle to practice

  Future of Europe
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Political Warfare: Competition in the Cyber Era

  The concept of political warfare is not new. Today, however, with the emergence of cyberspace as the fifth domain of war, the scope of political warfare, its diversity and its level of sophistication signify a break from past experience. What early ideas about political warfare identified as propaganda, psychological operations, or a race for the hearts and minds of the population can now be applied on a scale  never  seen  before. 

  This  article  offers  a  new  frame  of  reference  for  an old problem. In order to assess and adapt to the complex nature of inter-state competition in the cyber era, we need to understand how information technology is raising the relative importance of political warfare by transforming the social environment and its instruments of operation.

  Furthermore, although information technology is a neutral variable, the openness of Western societies increases the vulnerability of liberal democracies to political warfare. As a result, authoritarian regimes, terrorist groups and other revisionary forces of the twenty-first century are  undermining  democracy  and  freedom  around  the  world  by  targeting  the network society and by establishing new, virtual spheres of influence.

  Antonios Nestoras Defence Security Technology
• 

  Policy Briefs

  The New Geopolitics of the Arctic: Russia, China and the EU

  The Arctic is changing. Facing challenges driven by resource demands, changing power relations and climate change, the top of the world demands the attention of European states and EU officials. This paper examines the main geopolitical issues in the Arctic, such as the development of the region’s energy resources, the underlying potential for conflict and the increasing presence of China in the region. It argues that to unpack the region’s complexities, we need to recognise the diversity within the Arctic across a range of issues and to differentiate different levels of analysis: the international and the regional.

  Furthermore, this paper argues that the EU’s approach to the north suffers as a result of a general deficiency in EU external policies,  namely  incoherence  and  a  multitude  of  voices  and  opinions.  To  have a more effective Arctic policy, the EU needs to distinguish between the different levels  outlined  here,  raise  awareness  of  the  issues  facing  the  Arctic  among  its member states and politicians, and better communicate the relevance of the Union to Arctic states. The EU must view the Arctic primarily as a long-term strategic priority and as an area of growing geopolitical importance. 

  Andreas Østhagen Niklas Nováky EU-Russia Foreign Policy Security
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  Research Papers

  EU It Yourself: A Blueprint for a European Security Council

  There is currently an on-going debate about the possibility of creating a new European Security Council (ESC) within the EU. This is an old idea that has recently been resurrected by those seeking to transform the EU into a more effective international actor. The current discussion of the issue was initially started by French President Emmanuel Macron during his 2017 presidential campaign. But since then it has been taken over by leading German politicians such as Chancellor Angela Merkel and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the new leader of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany party. The basic premise behind the idea is that the EU should have a new structure for strategic reflection and deliberation on foreign, security and defence policy, a forum that would not have seats for every EU member state. This would—so the argument goes—help the EU act more quickly and more decisively when a crisis or challenge emerged that required action from the Union.

  This paper provides a blueprint for the creation of an ESC, a plan that political leaders could follow in the coming months. It envisages an intergovernmental ESC based in the Council of the EU. Its day-to-day operations would be handled by the Council Secretariat, which would make the ESC relatively resource-neutral in terms of the additional staff and funding it requires. Hence, it would be not so much a new institution as an additional structure within an existing institution, which also means that it would not require separate mechanisms to handle its interactions with NATO or France’s new European Intervention Initiative. The ESC would have seats for 10 member states, five of which would have permanent seats (i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland), three rotating and two case-specific seats. In addition, the ESC would have seats for a chairman, a military and civilian advisor, representatives from the European Commission and the European Parliament, and representatives from the relevant EU agencies, depending on the nature of the item being discussed. However, only the member states with permanent and rotating seats would vote on ESC decisions.

  Niklas Nováky Defence EU Institutions European Union Security
• 

  Research Papers

  The Empire Strikes Back: Brexit, History and the Decline of Global Britain

  For those seeking to understand the debate in Britain about leaving the EU, it is important to understand that history—or rather a certain Eurosceptic Tory interpretation of British and Imperial history—played a key role in building and sustaining the momentum for Brexit, both during and after the 2016 referendum. In this context, the process of Britain leaving the EU can be seen as the triumph of a misrepresented and selective view of British Imperial history and an unbending view of the primacy of the nation state. This narrative was combined (quite quickly and unpredictably) with a rise in economic nationalism and populism stimulated by the global economic crisis that commenced in 2007. This combination, in turn, challenged long-established political norms such as Britain’s membership of the EU. These were challenges that were largely based on a mutated form of British declinism and a fatalist view of the EU.

  Ultimately, this paper concludes that it is not in the interests of Brussels that Britain should either seek to remain (or gain re-admittance in the future) as a full member of the EU. Rather, Britain’s historical self-conception is more conducive to a looser, yet clearly defined relationship with Brussels, based on shared political, economic and security interests. Such an arrangement—a bespoke Anglo-Continental compact—is more consistent with Britain’s political realities and accepted historical narratives. It will also better preserve the integrity of the EU’s internal cohesiveness, which since 2016 has become unavoidably intertwined with Britain’s search for relevance in this post-colonial age.

  Eoin Drea Brexit Economy EU Member States Euroscepticism Macroeconomics
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Reducing Irregular Migration Flows through EU External Action

  Irregular immigration is emerging as a threat to the political stability of the EU. This is because the EU’s asylum and immigration system has been overly tolerant towards irregular migration. Despite a dramatic decrease in the number of migrants and refugees coming to Europe, the need remains to instil in the European public a sense that the EU border is properly guarded and that the number of illegal border crossings—as one aspect of irregular migration—is being reduced.

  In the short to medium term, the EU should help to ensure the protection of the refugees who are hosted in other countries. The EU should resettle the most vulnerable refugees through legal channels at the expense of irregular migration movements. The EU’s external border needs to be vigilantly policed in order to increase public confidence in the EU’s migration policy. Over the long term, the EU should set itself the goal of enlarging the area of functioning migration and asylum governance.

  Vít Novotný EU-US Immigration North Africa Security
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2018

  2018 was a very special year for our organisation as we celebrated the first decade of our existence. We took our anniversary not just as an opportunity to celebrate, but also as a chance to reflect. It seemed crucial to us to set up objectives to counteract all political challenges for the decade ahead.

  Marina Bulatović Centre-Right EU Member States European Union Leadership
• 

  IN BRIEF

  Catharsis, not compromise, is what Brexiteers want

  A no deal outcome to the Brexit saga has become increasingly likely because prime minister May has decided that her priority is to avoid a split in the conservative party. She has calculated that, if she tried to get her deal through with mainsteam labour support – her conservative party would break up. She would lose 50 to 100 members of parliament and cease to be prime minister.  She is trying instead to win over individual labour members by promising spending in their constituencies, a desperate tactic that corrupts the political system.

  John Bruton Eoin Drea Brexit EU Institutions EU Member States European Union Political Parties
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Suspicious minds: Conspiracy Theories in the Age of Populism

  In the last few years, digital platforms and social networks have provided a space for conspiracy theorists and theories to reach thousands of online users. As a consequence, some conspiracy theories have become part of the political debate at both the national and international levels. This policy brief provides a data-driven comparative analysis of a group of conspiracy-oriented Twitter accounts in Spain, Germany and Poland.  The analysis suggests that there is a thematic alignment between conspiracy circles and populists.

  In particular, the data shows that both have similar positions on the mainstream media, the corrupt nature of governmental institutions and migration. Moreover, the analysis indicates that there are users who are active both nationally and internationally and give a conspiratorial reading of current affairs that influences populist approaches to these same issues.

  Alex Krasodomski-Jones Federico Ottavio Reho Crisis Democracy Elections Populism Society
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  Policy Briefs

  Rebalancing the Euro Area: A proposal for Future Reform

  Under a monetary union, fiscal and monetary discipline have to go hand in hand if macroeconomic stability is to be maintained. The question is how to set up the right institutions to achieve this stability in a credible manner. This policy brief proposes a new institutional arrangement for the euro area to restore fiscal discipline. It places the responsibility for compliance entirely on the shoulders of the member states. It also provides for the mutualisation of 30% of the member states’ debt-to-GDP ratio.

  This would help to maintain a stable currency and to limit the risk of contagion should another crisis occur in the future. However, this comes at a cost. Under the fiscal scheme proposed, member states, which would be fully fiscally sovereign, would need to run long-term sound fiscal policies to benefit from euro membership.

  In addition,  this  brief  proposes  a  reform  of  Target2  under  which  overspending economies would have to pay the financial cost of accessing extra euros, which would deter the accumulation of internal imbalances within the euro area. All this is expected to change the current fragility of the architecture of the euro, provide member states with the right incentives to abide by sounder economic principles and make them fully responsible for the policies they adopt.

  Juan E. Castañeda EU Member States Eurozone Macroeconomics
• 

  IN BRIEF

  Security and Defence policy: An Agenda for 2019-2024

  One of the main concerns that voters are likely to have in their minds when casting their ballots in next  year’s european elections is security. This means that the EU needs an ambitious agenda in the area of security and defence for  2019-2024.  More specifically, it needs a set of concrete deliverables, which, if delivered properly and communicated effectively to european citizens, could help boost europeans’ sense of security where they might live in the Union.

  Niklas Nováky Defence EU Institutions EU Member States Foreign Policy Security
• 

  Collaborative

  The Middle: The middle class as the moral core of society

  For the first time in history, more than half of the world’s population belongs to the middle class. Global poverty has declined rapidly due to globalisation and technological development. But the same trends also lead to rapid change and the feeling that society is moving away from its moral core. In this book, the middle class in the Netherlands and Europe is highlighted by several authors and from several points of view. How is the middle class doing? What problems do families experience? What power lies in the civil society? And what does this mean for politics?  

  Economy Macroeconomics Middle Class Social Policy Society
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Brexit and the Irish question, Part Three: Solving the Border Conundrum?

  The ‘known known’ in the basket of uncertainties that is Britain’s withdrawal from the EU is the intention of the Commission’s negotiating team to maintain the integrity of the four freedoms. On the British side the objective is to enjoy some of the benefits accruing from its EU membership, whilst at the same time seeking to fulfil the democratic mandate to leave the EU conferred by the referendum verdict.

  In large part the withdrawal negotiations that ensued after the British Government invoked Article 50 have been a contest between these quite different, indeed conflicting, mandates. Both sides, each from its own standpoint, have offered quite different solutions to the conundrum of the Irish border. With Brexit day fast approaching, this singular issue has become a proxy for the altogether wider question of future EU–UK relations.

  At the time of writing, the entire sweep of these tense negotiations is concentrated on resolving the ‘Irish Question’—without success until finally a ‘technical’ agreement’ was reached by the negotiators. Whether this ‘solution’ will survive resistance from arch-Brexiteers remains to be seen.

  Michael O’Neill Eoin Drea Brexit EU Member States European Union Integration Leadership
• 

  Policy Briefs

  25 Years of Spitzenkandidaten: What Does the Future Hold?

  This paper critically reflects on the development and implications of the Spitzenkandidaten system. It makes three claims. First, it argues that, despite the assertions of many commentators, this system did not appear out of the blue in 2014 but has a much longer history.

  Since the Maastricht Treaty, a series of steps have been taken that have clearly led the way to this outcome and, in fact, may even lead beyond it. These steps, including the role of the European People’s Party, are explained here as they cast a different light on the whole process, without which the success of the Spitzenkandidaten system cannot be properly understood.

  Second, the paper claims that, from a political–institutional point of view, the system implicitly promotes the parliamentarisation of the EU architecture and might eventually lead to a stronger EU executive and a weaker European Parliament, as is the case in most national parliamentary systems. This would be the opposite of what many of its supporters would like to see.

  Third, the paper concludes that, in order to avoid this unintended consequence and fulfil the democratic potential of the Spitzenkandidaten system, the current procedure must be understood as an intermediate step on the road to the direct election of the president of the EU. This, however, requires its success and consolidation in 2019. The paper thus ends with some recommendations that will help to make this happen.

  Victor De Groof Wouter Wolfs Steven Van Hecke Elections EU Institutions EU Member States European Union Political Parties
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  European View

  Bigger, better, braver: Can Europe defend and deliver?

  
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• 

  Policy Briefs

  Women in a Man’s World: Labour Market Equality Driving Economic Growth

  Gender equality is one of the core principles of the EU. This is set forth in, for example,  Article  2  of  the  Treaty  of  the  European  Union.  Equality  between  men and  women  includes  equality  in  the  labour  market.  However,  this  equality  is  far from having been achieved. Building on our forthcoming research for the Martens Centre, we explore in detail four factors that may explain the gender gap in labour force  participation  across  countries.  These  factors  are  education,  taxation,  the provision of childcare, and cultural and historic norms. In discussing these factors, we  focus  on  case-study  countries  which  represent  different  regions  and  feature diverse institutional characteristics: Germany, Italy, Poland and Sweden.

  Through this  analysis  we  propose  four  policy  actions  designed  to  place  gender  equality in the labour market at the heart of a growing European economy. These are (1) the  promotion  of  better  work-life  balance  (2)  embedding  equality  in  national  tax systems (3) tacking gender stereotypes through education and (4) understanding the  benefits  of  long  term  investments  for  long  term  gains  in  terms  of  equality policies. To conclude, we acknowledge that it is preferable to implement policies that are tailored towards the institutional and cultural settings in each country and to specific groups of workers. Thus it is important that gender policies should be established at the national level. Rather than seeking to expand its competencies in the areas of education, taxation or social policy, the EU should focus on setting overall objectives.

  Peggy Bechara Ronald Bachmann Growth Jobs Macroeconomics Social Policy Society
• 

  Future of Europe

  The Four ‘Classical Federalisms’

  This paper aims to provide a critical analysis of the federalist doctrines that influenced the development of European integration. It argues that four federalist visions emerged at the dawn of European integration, each with its own specific ideological background and its own idea of what the federal Europe of the future should look like. The progressive federalism of Altriero Spinelli was different from the technocratic federalism of Jean Monnet, as much as the liberal federalism of Luigi Einaudi diverged from the personalist federalism of Christian Democrats.

  The  paper also contends  that  the  two  federalist philosophies most influential throughout European integration—those of Spinelli and Monnet— are founded on a unitary view of sovereignty and care little about protecting and retaining local state identities. On the contrary, within the Christian Democratic tradition there developed a bottom-up, culturally rooted federalism that was mindful of national and regional autonomy and averse to the concept of absolute sovereignty, be it national or European. Today, it is from this tradition that we should draw inspiration to redesign a more legitimate EU.

  Federico Ottavio Reho EU Institutions EU Member States European Union Future of Europe Integration Leadership
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Political Subversion in the Age of Social Media

  The information space that is used by voters, politicians and interest groups in Western nations is being contested and challenged by new risks and threats, both from within and from without. The aim of this report is to identify some of the main vulnerabilities with respect to current forms of political subversion, and to propose a set of policy principles to guide ongoing reflections on how best to respond to that challenge.

  Four areas of vulnerability are identified, namely individualised political messaging, group dynamics and political polarisation, platform algorithms and self-radicalisation, and falsehood dissemination dynamics. This leads to the formulation of four proposed policy principles, followed by a discussion of the extent to which recent measures, in selected Western nations and at EU level, are sufficient to address the challenge at hand.

  Edward Hunter Christie Dimitar Lilkov Democracy Elections Internet Technology
• 

  IN BRIEF

  Time for a (more) centre-right EU foreign policy chief

  European socialists have held a de facto monopoly over the position of the EU’s foreign policy high representative ever since it was created almost two decades ago. When new people will be appointed to the EU’s senior leadership positions in autumn 2019, the centre-right should seek to deny the socialists from having an almost automatic right to determine the person who is appointed as the high representative by carefully vetting all candidates. The minimum goal should be to ensure that the next high representative’s views and believes are more aligned with the centre-right’s vision of europe in the world than they currently are.

  Niklas Nováky Centre-Right Foreign Policy Leadership Security
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Brexit and the Irish question, part two: Brexit’s unintended consequences. Five key challenges

  Since 1998 the Irish border has become invisible, more conduit than barrier between Ireland North and South and at every level. Cross-border trade has expanded exponentially and increasing civic engagement is both entrenching and normalizing the peace process on both sides. The border region is slowly but surely becoming as much a shared civic and political, as a merely functional or economic space. The prospect of a reinstated border threatens that endeavor, concentrating minds in both communities, in government and in Brussels about the malign consequences of what seems to most observers to be an entirely retrograde move.

  In these uncertain times, the likelihood is that the significantly altered status of the post-Brexit border will have far-reaching and mostly negative consequences for future relations on the island of Ireland, and at every level. Brexit threatens a fundamental reversal of a tentative yet tangible peace process, a fundamental downshift in political, commercial and civic relations that means North-South co-operation cannot continue on present terms. Certainly not, if as seems likely, quite different economic and regulatory arrangements will pertain in the island’s respective political jurisdictions, a fact that will become even more conspicuous with a reinstated and formal border.

  Michael O’Neill Eoin Drea Brexit EU Member States Leadership
• 

  Policy Briefs

  France’s European Intervention Initiative: Towards a Culture of Burden Sharing

  This paper analyses the new European Intervention Initiative (EI2). Proposed by France, the EI2 is an intergovernmental forum outside the EU and NATO for enhancing  military  interactions  between  the  most  able  and  willing  European countries. By seeking to facilitate the development of a European strategic culture, it is an attempt to solve the demand-side problem of European defence cooperation—that is, most European countries’ unwillingness to intervene in crises and to use force when necessary.

  Niklas Nováky Defence EU Member States Security
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Brexit and the Irish question, Part one: Ireland’s Slow Road to Peace

  The outcome of the 2016 British referendum on EU membership will have significant and lasting consequences. For the United Kingdom and its relations with European neighbours, for the constitutional fabric of the British State and for the EU at a time of uncertainty over the future of the European project. The consequences of this decision will have no greater impact however than on the still-fragile peace process known as the ‘Good Friday’ or Belfast Agreement, negotiated  in  1998  by  parties  representing  Northern  Ireland’s principal cultural communities and the governments of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. This historic event brought to an end decades of political violence and centuries of sectarian bitterness, or so it was thought at the time. Brexit has thrown into doubt the future of that peace process.

  Michael O’Neill Eoin Drea Brexit Elections EU Member States Leadership
• 

  IN FOCUS

  North Korea: Towards a More Effective EU Policy

  The EU has an important role to play in the management of the threat posed by North Korea. Indeed, Brussels already has a policy of ‘critical engagement’ towards Pyongyang which combines diplomatic and economic carrots with a number of sticks. This policy, however, is in need of an update to attend to two recent developments on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea’s status as a de facto nuclear power and the flurry of engagement and diplomacy involving North Korea—including top-level meetings with the US, South Korea and China.

  In this context, the EU should support its partners, South Korea and the US, as they launch a process that could lead to sustainable engagement with North Korea, denuclearisation, and, as a result, a more stable Korean Peninsula. Working with its partners, Europe should creatively use its power of engagement and cooperation to change behaviour. This will enhance the position of the EU as a constructive actor in Asian affairs, support efforts by the US and South Korea to engage North Korea and, ultimately, offer a better opportunity for the EU to achieve its goals.

  Ramon Pacheco Pardo Defence European Union Security
• 

  Research Papers

  The Future of Work: Robots Cooking Free Lunches?

  The rapid technological progress in automation, robotisation and artificial intelligence is raising fears, but also hopes, that in the future the nature of work will change significantly. There will be changes in what we do, how we form workplace relations, how we find work and the role of work in a society. Some believe that these changes will be for the better: we will need to work less and thus will have more free time. Others think that the changes will be for the worse: there will be fewer ways to earn a living.

  The central question of this paper is this: will adages such as ‘By the sweat of your brow you will eat your food’ and ‘No bees, no honey, no work, no money’ become obsolete? Will work disappear and with it the societal relations and inequalities that result from differing success in work? If this is going to happen, what policy options do we have to address the issue? 

  Žiga Turk Vít Novotný Economy Innovation Jobs Society Technology
• 

  IN BRIEF

  The Impact of GDPR on Users and Business: The Good, The Bad and the Uncertain

  Itʹs official. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) has started to apply directly in all member states with the aim of safeguarding the processing of personal data of all natural persons within the European Union. The Regulation is seen as the most comprehensive ‘upgrade’ of data protection rules over the last two decades as it repeals Directive 95/46/EC enacted in the distant 1995. GDPR standardises and strengthens citizensʹ rights when it comes to collecting and  processing  personal  data  while  also  empowering national data protection authorities to supervise this new ambitious framework, by enhancing  their  responsibilities  and  ensuring  the possibility of heavy fines at their disposal. European and global businesses (big and small) had two years to adapt to the new onerous requirements  which  demanded  administrative,  technical and even strategic changes in the way they operate. The following In Brief aims to highlight the essence of the Regulationʹs 99 Articles and analyse the potential impact of GDPR on both users and business.

  Dimitar Lilkov Business Ethics Internet Technology
• 

  Future of Europe

  Differentiation, not Disintegration

  This paper reflects on the notion of differentiated integration in the context of the future of Europe. It argues that differentiation is only acceptable as an instrument of ‘unity in diversity’ and within strict limits. All forms of differentiation that risk fragmenting the Union and its institutional framework should be excluded. In the field of external policies existing treaties and the recent jurisprudence of the European Court of Justice allow the Union to speak with one voice and to privilege unity over differentiation. 

  As far as internal EU divides are concerned– from divisions over migration to those involving the rise of regional groups of countries—they are all transient and changeable and are not relevant subjects for differentiation. Finally, attempts to redefine the euro area as the new ‘hard core’ of European integration should be rejected, as they can only lead to the disintegration of the European project. Out of all the available legal techniques of differentiation, enhanced cooperation carries the lowest risk.

  János Martonyi Federico Ottavio Reho EU Institutions European Union Future of Europe Integration Leadership
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Filling the Void: Why the EU Must Step Up Support for Russian Civil Society

  Over the  past  15  years,  the  space  for  civic  engagement  in  Russia  has continuously shrunk, and it looks set to be cut further during Vladimir Putin’s fourth presidential term. Following a wave of repressive measures, it is already more restricted than it has been since 1991. Non-governmental organisations and  activists  have  been  stripped  of  funds  as  their  activities  have  been criminalised.

  They increasingly face a double disconnect: from international partners and within their own society. The clampdown on civil society reflects the growing repression of Russian society as a whole. But growing local initiatives and rising protests across the country undercut the narrative that Russian civil society is dead.

  And despite the pressure, Russian civil society is proving to be more active, resilient and diverse than is generally assumed. It continues to have new ideas and the capacity to be a key agent of development and social change in Russia. Many groups and individuals continue to have a vision for the country’s future and are willing to work with Western partners. The example of Ukraine shows that civil society is an indispensable factor in overcoming the authoritarian legacy of post-Soviet societies.

  Barbara von Ow-Freytag Democracy Elections EU-Russia Society Values
• 

  European View

  Making globalisation and automation work for us

  
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• 

  IN BRIEF

  The US-led missile strikes in Syria

  The 14 April US-led missile strikes against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria in response to a suspected chemical weapons attack were necessary to reestablish deterrence against any future use of such weapons in the country. Yet, the strikes were reactive rather than strategic in nature, and will not change the course of syria’s civil war. This would require the West to outline a clear vision for the country’s future, and a strategy to achieve it.

  Niklas Nováky Defence EU-US Foreign Policy Security
• 

  IN FOCUS

  European Energy Security: The Case Against Nord Stream 2

  The Nord Stream 2 project aims to double the capacity Russia currently possesses for delivering natural gas directly to Germany through the Baltic Sea. This paper provides an overview of the current developments surrounding the project and of opposition to  the  pipeline  by  the  European  Commission  and  a  growing number of EU member states. It goes on to analyse the risks involved  in  the  new  gas  infrastructure  and  argues  that  Nord Stream 2 would be detrimental to the energy security of a number of Central and Eastern European member states and of Ukraine. 

  The  paper  contends  that  while  the  pipeline  offers  uncertain economic gains, it would dangerously weaken the EU’s strategic goals in Eastern Europe, disrupt the European Energy Security Strategy and damage member state unity. Ultimately, the new German government should recognise this and take the necessary measures to stop Nord Stream 2. 

  Roland Freudenstein Dimitar Lilkov Energy EU-Russia Neighbourhood Policy Sustainability
• 

  IN BRIEF

  Keeping it Real: Building a Realistic and Inclusive Eurozone

  Who doubts that history doesn’t repeat itself? In Brussels, 2018 is the new 1989. Everybody seems to have a “blueprint” or “vision” for the future of the Eurozone. The only problem is that three decades after the Delors report, Eurozone leaders risk the sustainability of the single currency area. The reason? Political goals rather than economic priorities are guiding Eurozone proposals. The possible result? A repeat of the mistakes of the 1990s and a Eurozone still ill-equipped to deal with future crisis.

  Eoin Drea Crisis European Union Eurozone Leadership Macroeconomics
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2017

  Our think tank is celebrating its tenth birthday! It started off small, with just three people on board. Today we have a team of over 20 talented and dynamic individuals at our Brussels headquarters, and we cooperate with more than 40 member foundations and partner organisations across Europe. Every year we organise over 100 events. In this way we have developed a platform for centre–right decision-makers, experts and thinkers to discuss and exchange views on current issues and to debate proposals to address the foremost challenges facing Europe.

  Anna van Oeveren EU Member States European People's Party European Union
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Education in Europe: Towards a True Education Area by 2025

  This paper sets out ways to reform European education systems to  ensure  that  they  equip  Europeans  with  a  forward-looking set of key competences that prepares them for the workplace, but  also  helps  to  create  a  European  identity.  It  argues  that education and training—enhanced through mobility, transnational cooperation  and  structural  reforms—are  critical  to  boosting individual, economic and societal resilience; providing both basic and high-level skills and competences; reducing inequalities; promoting entrepreneurial mindsets; fostering inclusive, stable and democratic societies; and making a success of migration and globalisation. Furthermore, education should help to empower young people to engage with and shape the future of a Europe of democracy, solidarity and inclusion. The ultimate goal is to build a true European Education Area by 2025, which would, inter alia, improve students’ mobility, prepare the ground for the mutual recognition of diplomas and boost language learning.

  Tibor Navracsics Niklas Nováky Education EU Institutions European Union Social Policy Youth
• 

  IN BRIEF

  New American scepticism on EU defence cooperation

  American officials have raised concerns about Permanent Structured Cooperation, the EU’s new defence pact. If these concerns signal a broader shift in US policy towards EU defence cooperation, they will undermine US efforts to improve transatlantic burden sharing. 

  Niklas Nováky Defence EU-US Security Transatlantic
• 

  IN FOCUS

  The Middle Class: Priorities for the 2019 Elections and Beyond

  Compared to the 18 months preceding the 2014 elections, the mood music in Brussels could scarcely be more different. But while growth and employment are increasing, vast swathes of the established middle classes have lost faith in their ability to achieve a higher standard of living and to match the social mobility achieved by preceding generations. Increasingly topics such as globalisation, free trade, immigration and even stable political systems are viewed as tools of the “elite” designed to prevent progress for working and middle class families. Politically, this has manifested  itself in a fracturing of the traditional party political system and the rise of a protectionist, combative populism.

  To confront these challenges, this paper identifies five social and economic priorities that should form an important element of centre right policy formation. With the ultimate objective of rejuvenating an aspirational middle class in Europe, we argue that only by bridging the gap between the rhetoric of a digitally driven, flexible economy and the day to day realities confronting middle class families can the centre right hope to increase working and middle class support in the 2019 elections and beyond. Such an approach is based on the core social market economy principle of seeking to conciliate economic freedom with social security, while maintaining a high level of personal responsibility and subsidiarity.

  Eoin Drea Centre-Right Economy Macroeconomics Middle Class Social Policy Society
• 

  Future of Europe

  For a True European Defence Union

  The European Union is experiencing a new dynamic behind its quest for a credible security and defence capacity. New projects and mechanisms suggest a shift in European ambition.

  This paper assesses the reality of this new dynamic, arguing that the EU needs a clearly articulated grand strategy – outlining the objectives in the Southern and Eastern neighbourhoods, and tailoring those objectives to realistic means. Those means will range from high end assets to purely civilian assets. Defence spending will require structured Europeanisation. 

  Involvement of third countries will require creative legal developments. EU-NATO relations must undergo fundamental revision. If ‘strategic autonomy’, the objective of the European Global Strategy, is to become a reality, it will involve the EU progressively assuming leadership within NATO, thereby meeting the calls across the United States for the allies to assume greater responsibility for their own affairs.

  Jolyon Howorth Federico Ottavio Reho Defence EU Member States European Union Future of Europe Security
• 

  Collaborative

  No Robots: The Position of Middle-Class Households in Nine European Countries

  This book explores how the position of the middle class has changed in the past decade. No Robots expresses the perspective of households which are not floating as some kind of atomic particles in a macro economy, but consist of human beings who find meaning in  relationship  to  others.  Analysing  their  perspective  on  the  economic  situation, globalisation, migration and technology is key, we believe, to understanding political trends.  In  this  context,  No  Robots  also  expresses  the  widely-felt  anxiety  about  the replacement of jobs by robots. Households in every country are concerned about the future of work: whether it will be there, whether it will be well-paid and whether their children are receiving the right education to find a job. These are the type of concerns that we uncover for a diverse set of countries from the European Union. 

  Economy EU Member States Macroeconomics Middle Class Social Policy Society
• 

  IN FOCUS

  The Future of Global Trade: Between Multilateralism and Regionalism

  This paper briefly describes how international trade has been transformed in recent years and what has determined its increasing politicisation. It argues that the two main pillars of the global trading system—international trade regulation and the dispute settlement mechanism—are being put under strain due to various developments.

  The whole system is being challenged by opposing tendencies: on the one hand, the multiplication of global risks and opportunities demands common action and multilateral rule-making; on the other, we are witnessing increasing fragmentation  and regionalisation. The realistic objective that can now be set for the future development of world trade is the preservation of as much as possible of the present system and its improvement in specific areas. 

  János Martonyi Federico Ottavio Reho Trade
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Cyber-Defence: Strengthening the EU’s Resilience in the Virtual Domain

  This paper analyses the unstoppable phenomenon of globalisation through the lens of cyberspace. It looks at how the threats associated with this domain could evolve into a cyberwar. The paper assesses the EU’s stance on cyberspace and elaborates the directions that the EU should develop and pursue in this regard.

  It begins by examining the meaning of various cyber-related terms as a way of explaining the risks, threats and challenges of cyberspace. It then goes on to detail the EU’s approach to cyberspace. The paper concludes by outlining a way to increase the EU’s cyber-defence capacity and scope through the creation of an EU cyber-command that would centrally coordinate operational capacity in cyberspace in order to pursue the development of hard and offensive cyber-power.

  Finally, the paper also builds on the European People’s Party’s (EPP’s) call for strengthened resilience against cyberwar and offers a suggestion for an EU response to hybrid warfare and cyberwar, as outlined in the EPP’s Congress document Europe Secures Our Future. 

  Gonçalo Carriço Niklas Nováky Defence Globalisation Internet
• 

  Research Papers

  Weeding out Fake News: An Approach to Social Media Regulation

  Social media are becoming the dominant source of information for significant parts of our societies. There are numerous positive aspects of these media, such as their ability to mobilise for a political cause and how they enable greater and quicker flows of ideas across societies.

  This paper focuses on those aspects of social media that negatively affect the public debate, such as the spreading of fake news and the creation of ‘echo chambers’ of like-minded users who become isolated from alternative opinions. The paper proposes that social media platforms should be considered media companies and that they should be regulated by modified versions of existing press laws, adapted to suit the new technology.

  The creation of a ‘notice and correct’ procedure, as it is tentatively called, would provide an effective tool to stop lies from spreading, allowing affected parties, public or private, to protect their rights. By making the social media platforms jointly responsible for the content they publish, governments would create the right incentives for companies to adapt their business models and modify the construction of their algorithms and policies.

  The paper outlines how such a procedure could function without constricting the freedom of speech. Finally, the paper stresses the improvement of e-literacy as an additional, viable and long-term solution to the problem of fake news.

  Konrad Niklewicz Ethics Industry Internet Technology Values
• 

  IN FOCUS

  New Multilateral Structures: the Rise of an Alternative Order or More of the Same?

  With  the  global  governance  system  becoming  increasingly unrepresentative of the changed realities of the twenty-first century, the emerging powers have been all the more proactive in seeking to reshape it. This paper focuses on three multilateral structures recently created by the emerging powers and asks whether  they  represent  an emerging  alternative  international order or rather the (re)ascendance of international liberalism. More specifically, the paper assesses the development of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement. I argue that these bodies aspire, not to eclipse their established counterparts, but to complement them, by building on their best practices and omitting their shortcomings.

  Balazs Ujvari Ingrid Habets Foreign Policy Globalisation
• 

  Collaborative

  Unity in Adversity: Immigration, Minorities and Religion in Europe

  Despite the EU’s official motto ‘United in Diversity’, the bloc is experiencing a profound crisis in which diversity is threatening to dispel unity. Instead of harmony, diversity increasingly spells conflict. A variety of factors are behind this strife, including terrorism, the uncertain position of religion in public life, the unclear situation of minority groups (including autochthonous minorities and the Roma), radical Islamism, insufficient integration of immigrants and a loss of personal status and identity due to globalisation.

  These phenomena are occurring against the backdrop of the recent economic crisis, instability in Europe’s neighbourhood, and the uncontrolled influx of migrants and refugees in 2015–16. All these developments are feeding conflicts both among the member states and between the EU institutions and national governments, as well as a cultural war between globalists and identitarians that cuts across European societies. 

  The European People’s Party, and governments at all levels, need to engage with the ‘forgotten part’ of society without compromising on pluralism and personal freedoms. They need to promote a concept of state which allows different religious and secular opinions to thrive. They should combat extremism and, in cooperation with civil society, encourage a public culture that defends tolerance and liberty. They should promote a critical reading of the Koran.

  Developing concepts of citizenship with a focus on immigrants is crucial, as is effective participation of autochthonous minorities and the Roma in public life. Taking such steps would ensure that internal and external adversity does not destroy European unity. 

  Vít Novotný Ethics EU Member States Immigration Religion
• 

  Future of Europe

  For a New Europeanism

  Just  as  it  did  seventy  years  ago, European integration today has four strategic objectives: peace, security, prosperity and identity. However, ‘mainstream Europeanism’—the current European consensus—seems increasingly incapable of providing the right vision for a successful continuation  of the European project.

  To meet the present challenges of European integration and secure unity across the continent, we should develop a new Europeanism that promotes stronger integration in defence, foreign policy and  border  control, while putting greater emphasis on decentralisation, national autonomy, economic reforms and cultural traditions.

  This would put into practice the EU’s motto ‘Unity in diversity’ and give precise content to the ideal of an EU that is ‘big on big things and small on small things’.

  Federico Ottavio Reho Federico Ottavio Reho Centre-Right EU Institutions European Union Euroscepticism Future of Europe Integration
• 

  IN FOCUS

  A New Transatlantic Agenda: Challenges and Opportunities in the Trump Era

  Donald Trump’s election to President of the US in November 2016 might well become one of the most momentous events in the relationship between Europe and North America since the end of the Cold War.

  Although this relationship has already gone through substantial changes in the last 25 years, the current challenges seem more formidable than many of the past crises.

  External threats to Europe and, to a lesser extent, America are intensifying. Rather than unifying the West, these challenges have provoked internal divisions within the transatlantic community that are greater than ever before.

  Craig Kennedy Roland Freudenstein Defence EU-Russia Security Transatlantic
• 

  Research Papers

  We Need to Talk about the EU: European Political Advertising in the Post-Truth Era

  The EU is losing the battle for Europeans’ hearts and minds. The long economic crisis and the subsequent immigration crisis have frustrated millions of citizens and angered them against the elites—and, unfortunately, against the EU.

  Many fear that their material status, the economic security of their families and their ability to fulfil their own expectations and ambitions are slipping out of their hands. Europeans are also suffering from an identity crisis. Many believe that their countries and neighbourhoods are being threatened by mass immigration and that the ruling elites, sealed off in steel and glass towers in their respective countries’ capitals, are not listening.

  The EU is facing its biggest communication challenge ever. The EU institutions need to take up the gauntlet and start defending the European project. The purpose of this paper is to analyse potential new ways of ‘advertising the EU’. The key assumption is that, whenever possible, EU institutions should follow best practices from the business sector since these have proved to be more effective in the current communication environment.

  Konrad Niklewicz Federico Ottavio Reho Ioana Lung EU Institutions EU Member States European Union Euroscepticism
• 

  Other

  The Case for a Federal Europe

  While conservatives frequently offer trenchant criticisms of the European Union (EU), they are short on constructive suggestions about how the European project should be reformed. The tradition of international federalism, which exists in free-market thought, can be a source of such a reform agenda.

  Understood properly, a federalization of the EU does not mean an unqualified transfer of powers to European institutions. Instead, federalism provides a framework through assigning authority to different levels of government.

  In practice, that would mean strengthening the EU in a limited number of areas to provide essential Europe-wide services—foreign policy and defense, economic governance within the eurozone and the single market, and border protection and asylum policy—while repatriating a long list of powers back to member states.

  A federalist approach thus offers substantial promise in addressing the EU’s central policy challenges and relieving the tensions brought about by the block’s protracted crises. Conservatives and classical liberals should embrace international federalism as a way to constrain the power and size of government. That could provide a new focal point for a reinvigoration of centre-right political platforms across Europe.

  This publication was originally published on the American Enterprise Institute wesbsite. 

  Federico Ottavio Reho Dalibor Roháč Centre-Right EU Institutions European Union Future of Europe Integration
• 

  Other

  The past and future of European federalism: Spinelli vs. Hayek

  The year 2017 will mark the sixty-year anniversary of the Treaties of Rome. On this occasion, the European project will receive a thorough check-up, and important decisions will be made that will decide whether and in what form it survives.

  In this context, it is crucial to recognise the long-overlooked contest between two competing visions of European federalism, propounded by two great figures of Europe’s twentieth century: Altiero Spinelli and Friedrich Hayek.

  The recent past tells the story of a revolt against European integration that is taking dangerously big dimensions and demands urgent countermeasures.

  Honest pro-Europeans should admit that some sort of Hayekian federalism is the only federalism with some chances of success in our continent.

  This briefing was originally published on the European Policy Information Center (EPICENTER) website. 

  Federico Ottavio Reho EU Institutions EU Member States European Union Integration Values
• 

  IN FOCUS

  How We Have Become an Enemy in the Eyes of Russia: The EU as Portrayed by Kremlin Propaganda

  The EU has been paying increasing attention to the phenomenon of information warfare. However, this has not gone as far as to penetrate the fog of disinformation surrounding the motherland to investigate how the Kremlin’s propaganda machine operates in Russia itself.

  The Kremlin uses internal propaganda both to maintain legitimacy and as a defence mechanism against the outside world. By drawing attention away from domestic problems and creating an environment of fear and impending doom, it portrays an alternative reality in which Russia is surrounded by mythical enemies.

  The EU is portrayed as an aggressive and expansionist entity that wants to destroy Russia, while at the same time it is depicted as a weak, ‘decadent’ and ‘un-Christian’ union that cannot cope with global challenges.

  On the other hand, the Kremlin’s main caveat in doing so, is that Russia’s success is inherently connected with the failure of the West and democracy.

  This paper scrutinises the Kremlin’s propaganda machine and its popular narratives about the EU in order to understand how Russia’s media presents the EU and why less than a quarter of the population has a positive opinion of it. 

  Kristina Potapova Eastern Europe European Union Foreign Policy
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Brexit. Brexit?

  On the eve of the invocation of Article 50, this policy brief disentangles the main components of the Brexit imbroglio and lays out the legal framework and political constraints of the negotiations that are about to start. It assesses the reversibility of Brexit, the likely duration and possible outcomes of the negotiations, the legal options for the transition period, and the probable impact of Brexit on the EU27 in general and Central Europe in particular.

  Because of the UK’s size, economic weight  and  political  clout,  as  well  as  its  peculiar  historical  background,  it  concludes that the new EU–UK relationship cannot be based on one of the existing ‘models’ of external arrangements. The new partnership between the UK and the EU27 will have to go beyond even the most comprehensive free-trade agreement and it should also include finance, energy and external economic policies, as well as covering foreign policy, security and defence.

  The author emphasises that any weakening of the free movement of persons as a result of the negotiations would be  a  serious  violation  of  the  essential  constitutional  principles  upon  which  the EU is built, and could damage the foundations of European integration. The brief considers managing internal differentiation without creating permanent divisions among groups of countries as the most important challenge ahead for the EU27. 

  It also argues  that, with  Brexit, Central Europeans will lose a powerful ally on many economic and constitutional issues, although their economic and geopolitical weight will be on the rise in the new EU27.

  János Martonyi Federico Ottavio Reho Brexit Economy EU Member States European Union Trade
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Security Policy: The Case for a Postmodern EU Defence Architecture

  It is widely believed that Britain’s decision to leave the EU and Donald Trump’s election to the White House have strengthened both the case for and the possibility of an ambitious EU defence policy, perhaps even of an EU army.

  This short paper  argues that, contrary to widespread fears, the EU can become a powerful security and defence policy player without adopting the hierarchical structures of traditional states and while maintaining decentralised defence responsibilities and a pluralist institutional framework. 

  Two relevant historical examples—the Holy Roman Empire and the Hanseatic League—are presented to draw general lessons on how the EU could accomplish this, thus becoming an effective ‘postmodern power. 

  Federico Ottavio Reho Defence Foreign Policy Security
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2016

  The Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies (or Martens Centre), the official think tank of the EPP, had yet another year of exciting developments in 2016, while strengthening its network of member foundations, which now comprises 31 members and more than 12 partners.

  EU Member States European Union
• 

  IN FOCUS

  The Russian Economy: Recovery Is Further Away than Some Might Think

  This working paper looks at recent trends in the Russian economy after more than two years of recession. It analyses the fundamental reasons for the current economic crisis and argues against some of the mainstream views on ‘the end of the recession’ and the role of Western financial sanctions. The paper follows up the author’s publication on the same topic which was published by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in December 2015.

  Vladimir Milov Eoin Drea Loredana Teodorescu Crisis Economy EU-Russia Growth Macroeconomics
• 

  Ukraine

  Ukraine Reforms: milestones and achievements

  In December 2014 under the leadership of Mikuláš Dzurinda, president of the Martens Centre, former prime minister of Slovakia and successful country reformer, we launched the  #UkraineReforms programme to bring together the expertise of senior EU decision-makers in support of the reform process in Ukraine. This transfer of experience is organised through public events, town-hall style meetings, TV debates, online articles and interviews held in Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities. The initiative is supported by local partners including Ukrainian NGOs Reanimation Package for Reforms and Stronger Together, as well as the Kyiv School of Economics. By the end of 2016 the programme presented over 20 activities, 18 high-level visits in Ukraine in 7 different cities, around 70 meetings and lectures and over 40 media interviews. This brochure gives an overview of the project’s milestones and achievements following 2 successful years of expert visits and exchanges. 

  Eastern Europe Economy Leadership Macroeconomics
• 

  Research Papers

  Good or Bad Neighbours: The Main European Security Challenge

  The current Western liberal order is in danger of becoming vulnerable to threats posed by political systems which have no regard for universal values, such as human rights, and are willing to use brutal force—as is the case with Putin’s Russia and aggressive Islamist movements.

  The spillover effects of instability in the regions outside of the EU are taking a significant toll on the Union. Unless the West succeeds in making a case for the universality of the values underpinning its institutions and shows the capacity to defend those values, in the medium and long term, the West could lose this battle. Europe has no better way to defend itself than by expanding the geographic reach of its ideological sphere of influence. 

  This is why the EU has to invest in state-building and security in its Eastern and Southern neighbourhood. This paper argues that the EU needs to rethink the focus of its European Neighbourhood Policy; it needs to go beyond the limited scope of technical cooperation or the project of economic integration, and must invest in itself as a ‘geopolitical’ actor.

  The best way to do so is through the Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy. The EU has to prioritise its role as a ‘stabiliser’ and security actor in its immediate neighbourhood. 

  Salome Samadashvili Ingrid Habets Democracy Foreign Policy Neighbourhood Policy Security
• 

  Policy Briefs

  What the EU Can, May and Should Do to Support Georgia

  The paper considers current political challenges encountered by Georgia and the geopolitical framework in which the EU-Georgia relationship develops. While Georgia is apparently better off on the democratic front, clouds are gathering again ahead of the forthcoming parliamentary elections — a possible game changer.

  Economy remain sluggish, political landscape fragmented and unpredictable, and security concerns unabated. Plagued by a multitude of problems and challenges, the West’s interest in the country has been diminishing, while Russia is intensifying its propaganda machine and other dangerous tools at its disposal.

  The EU can and should develop a more differentiated approach to the South Caucasus and the Eastern Neighbourhood — and Georgia, in particular— based less on geography and more on democratic achievements and strategic importance. It is also discussed what the EU and other actors such as Eu

  Teona Lavrelashvili Ingrid Habets Eastern Europe Elections EU-Russia Foreign Policy Neighbourhood Policy
• 

  IN FOCUS

  The Tsar and His Business Serfs: Russian Oligarchs and SMEs Did Not Surprise Putin at the Elections

  Despite  deteriorating  economic  conditions,  the  Russian  business community  has  remained  loyal  to  the  Kremlin.  It  has  not  protested  or even questioned Vladimir Putin’s main domestic and foreign policies. A state monopolistic model of the economy had already been in deep crisis before Western sanctions against Russia over Ukraine started and oil  prices  collapsed.  

  However,  both  the  government  and  business  are reluctant to publicly admit this. Instead, the Kremlin has promised to help small  and  medium-sized  businesses  with  predictable  fiscal  policy  and relaxed regulation, but it has consistently failed to do so.

  The entrepreneurs, in turn, have mostly reacted with more austerity and by moving into a shadow economy. As for the oligarchs, the elites have not become divided over the relatively mild Western sanctions, as Putin has managed to keep the wealthiest power brokers at bay through a variety of carrot-and-stick policies. 

  Large commercial entities continue to rely on state contracts and other government  support,  while  the  Kremlin’s  business  insiders  have  been finding innovative ways to circumvent Western sanctions. Given the current level of relatively superficial sanctions, the US and the EU will probably have to play a long-term game before the Kremlin changes its aggressive domestic and foreign policies.

  Ilya Zaslavsky Business Elections EU-Russia
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Telecoms Investment: 3 Steps to Create a Broadband Infrastructure for a Digital Europe

  In the early 2000s, it appeared that the European Union would continue to lead the world in telecommunications. It accounted for the largest share of private investment in telecommunications infrastructure; it had six handset manufacturers accounting for more than half of the world’s phones; and a continental agreement on 3G/UMTS which became  the  global  mobile  standard.  

  But  the  EU’s  lead  was  short  lived. Instead the US and Asia emerged. Today there are no more European handset  manufacturers. 4G  eclipsed  3G. The  US  is  on  track  to have half of all its mobile broadband subscriptions as 4G by the end of 2016, while  Europe  will  struggle to reach 30 percent. There is over €100 billion of additional investment required to achieve the Commission’s Digital Agenda goals.

  This note examines the reasons behind the EU’s decline in global telecommunications leadership, notably a confused approach to telecom regulation and a regulatory framework which actually deters European enterprises from investment and innovation. 3 solutions are proposed to help close the gap in investment and to strengthen European enterprises so that they can invest/innovate and stimulate the demand for digital services. 

  These solutions are:

  1. Removal of obsolete regulation on specific industries in favour of a general competition approach;

  2. Update the competition framework to recognise the dynamic effect of digitally converged industries

  3. Encourage public sector institutions to digitise as a means to help lagging European nations adopt the internet and achieve Digital Single Market (DSM) goals.

  Roslyn Layton Eoin Drea European Union Innovation Internet Macroeconomics Technology
• 

  Research Papers

  The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU

  This paper sheds light on organisations operating in Europe that are funded by the Russian government, whether officially or unofficially. These include government-organised non-governmental organisations (GONGOs), non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and think tanks.

  Their goal is to shift European public opinion towards a positive view of Russian politics and policies, and towards respect for its great power ambitions. In light of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Russian aggression in Eastern Ukraine, the overt or covert support for these organisations must become a matter of concern to the EU. 

  The EU’s politicians and citizens should look at the activities of the Russian GONGOs and think tanks as challenges that can help improve national and EU-level decision-making mechanisms, increase transparency in policymaking and deepen the involvement of citizens and civil society organisations in the democratic process.

  The paper recommends, among other measures, fostering the EU’s own narrative, which is based on human rights, freedom and equality; supporting pro-democratic civil society so that Europeans become more resistant to Russian propaganda; and increasing transparency requirements for NGOs and lobbyists by setting up a mandatory lobbying register at the EU level.

  For some of the statements put forward in this research paper, please also see: IFRI Right of reply EN,  IFRI Right of reply FR, WMCES Statement.

  Kristina Potapova Vít Novotný Vladka Vojtiskova Hubertus Schmid-Schmidsfelden Vít Novotný Eastern Europe EU-Russia
• 

  Research Papers

  Rewiring Europe: Five Priorities for a Lasting Digital Economy

  Most, if not all, economic transactions are digitized to some degree. Most, although not all, enterprises use digital technology in some part of their business. Many, though still far too few, people use digital technology to make their lives richer and easier in everything from shopping and online banking to online dating or streaming music and films.

  Accordingly, it is becoming increasingly hard to separate the digital economy from the non-digital one. Rather, the digital economy is the new economy, and the ambition to establish a European Digital Single Market (DSM) is the aspiration to realize an improved single market that makes use of new technologies. This is what makes fulfilling this goal both extremely complicated and very simple.

  Rather than a bombastic revolution, digitization has been a silent, low key integration process moving horizontally through our economy and society. That is, until now. We have now reached a critical point, having realized that digitization has been embedded into most, if not all, parts of our lives.

  Accordingly, a lot is changing as new technologies are no longer just being used to do things the way they have always been done, but also to do things in completely new ways. The song has been separated from the CD, bloggers compete with journalists, a mobile gaming company is worth more than a car manufacturer and our cities are being transformed by apps. Times are changing.

  Based on our examination of the process of digitization and digital market integration in Europe, we highlight five specific policy issues that are crucial to promoting a lasting digital economy in Europe. 

  These areas include the need for harmonized regulation; making data borderless and data flows seamless,  promoting regional, bottom-up, controlled experimental policy initiatives; growing urban digital markets where digitization and density accelerate innovation, and establishing an open, coherent framework for data ownership with regard to privacy, personal data and metadata.

  In particular, we highlight urban digital markets as a unique opportunity for the EU (and member states) to improve the policy response to digital and disruptive entrepreneurship.  Used properly, these markets can generate substantial growth and innovation while aiding the transition to a sustainable and world leading European Digital Economy.  A rewired Europe fit and able to compete in the 21st century global economy.

  Joakim Wernberg Jacob Dexe Eoin Drea EU Member States Innovation Internet Technology
• 

  Policy Briefs

  From Disapproval to Change? Russia’s Population May Surprise Putin at the Next Elections

  Most of the recent commentary around Russian politics has been focused largely on one issue, the high personal approval ratings of Vladimir Putin. But the Russian political system is complicated, and even the ruling force consists of many elements: government, the ruling ‘United Russia’ party, Parliament, regional governors, and so forth.

  There are strong indications that, despite Putin’s personal approval rating remaining quite high, approval ratings for all other elements of the system of power are essentially down to pre–Crimea annexation levels and even lower. There are strong and growing signs that the Russian population is deeply unhappy with the current situation, and that discontent has a chance to spill over into the territory of political consequences. 

  Despite the fact that Putin’s overall hold on the country remains largely unchallenged, authorities run a very serious risk of showing weak results at the upcoming Parliamentary elections in September 2016. The weak result of the ruling party at the previous State Duma elections in 2011 sparked a large-scale political crisis in the country, although the party did not even lose a majority in Parliament.

  It is too early to predict specific results of the September 2016 Parliamentary elections, but the weaker the result for United Russia, the more reason to expect some modification of the current system towards power-sharing deals, softening of the ‘vertical of power’, emergence of a more dialogue-based environment and calls for some kind of transformation of the Russian political system.

  Vladimir Milov Ingrid Habets Crisis Elections EU-Russia Security
• 

  Ukraine

  No Illusions, No Regrets: The Current Struggle to Reform Ukraine

  The 2013–14 Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine created much admiration and hope among Ukrainians and the international audience. Both Ukrainian civil society and international partners have voiced their high expectations of the meaningful changes in the economy, the political system, and public institutions.

  This paper argues that positive changes depend on a clear escape from the Soviet legacy, which provokes political populism and stalls reforms. Despite the immense challenges of the Russian military intervention and the declining economy, Ukraine has made progress with its ambitious reform agenda.

  This paper discusses the achievements and setbacks in four policy areas: decentralisation, energy, the civil service and anti-corruption. It includes firm evidence that proves that the results of many of the reforms are already helping the Ukrainian economy to recover from the crisis.

  In the long run, the success of a new prosperous and democratic Ukraine will depend on several components of the reform process: vision, leadership, communication, political consolidation and Ukrainian ownership.

  The EU can and should help in this endeavour, but the national government must maintain the critical share of responsibility.

  Maksym Popovych Ingrid Habets Eastern Europe Economy Macroeconomics
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Financial Market Instability: A Four Point Plan to Avoid Economic Catastrophe in Europe

  2016 has been marked by a return of uncertainty in the financial markets and increased doubts over growth prospects in key global economies such as China, Europe and the U.S. Nearly ten years after the U.S. sub-prime mortgage crisis first erupted, the global financial sector has returned as a key concern of economists and global investors.

  This note identifies four key issues underpinning the current market turbulence. It argues that although these challenges are varied and serious, they are not insurmountable for Europe owing to the reforms undertaken since 2008.

  However, in order to prevent regular cycles of market speculation further economic reforms are necessary which will challenge existing national preferences and change the governance of both the European and global economies.

  Ultimately, for Europeans, the goal of these reforms is to lead to a more cohesive and robust European Union. However, the failure of the EU to act in a timely (and collaborative) manner will result in further periods of speculation. 

  Four policy priorities – increased investment, further global cooperation, the completion of Banking Union and the maintenance of sustainable public finances – are identified as being necessary for the EU to withstand future financial crises.

  Eoin Drea Banking Crisis Economy Growth Macroeconomics
• 

  Research Papers

  The Long March Towards the EU: Candidates, Neighbours and the Prospects for Enlargement

  Seven consecutive enlargements, spanning over half a century, have provided geopolitical stability in Europe and facilitated trade and economic growth. Currently, the EU is considering further expansion towards the Western Balkans and Turkey. In this process, the EU is weighing fundamental values against security concerns, public scepticism in some member states and past experience of letting in countries that were not prepared.

  In addition the economic, security and refugee crises are making the EU more cautious about enlarging further. The present paper considers options for further EU enlargement, including ending enlargement altogether, offering a reduced membership status (‘membership minus’) and keeping enlargement alive under strict conditions.

  It argues for the third option, under which the EU institutions must make sure that candidate countries not only align their legislation with that of the community but also respect fundamental EU values in the economic, political and legal spheres. Giving a viable prospect for membership is vital to enabling the candidates to maintain reform momentum and their attachment to the West. It is also in the interests of the EU and its member states.

  Konrad Niklewicz Vít Novotný Balkans Enlargement Foreign Policy
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Humane Capitalism: Towards a Centre-Right Approach

  Following the financial meltdown of 2007–8 and during the ensuing ‘Great Recession’, a chorus of recriminations against the evils of capitalism was heard. To many who had always distrusted the liberal shift in economic policy initiated in the 1980s, the turmoil on the financial markets was the long-awaited confirmation of their fears. Unbridled capitalism, they concluded, was unstable and unfair. The deregulation in recent decades had put the finances of whole nations at the mercy of financiers’ greed and bankers’ profits.

  Unethical behaviour was rampant in the banking industry. Therefore, tighter regulations were urgently needed to protect the public interest and rein in the forces of globalised capitalism. These convictions provided the moral high ground from which to advocate re-regulation, stimulus packages and ultra-loose monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic.

  This paper considers the case for ‘moralising capitalism’ from a centre–right perspective. After defining capitalism and briefly explaining how it works, it illustrates some of its moral achievements and casts some doubts on the responsibility of the capitalist system for the 2008 financial crisis. It then tries to sketch the contours of a specifically centre–right approach to moralising capitalism, also drawing on the rich insights offered by Wilhelm Röpke, one of the fathers of the Social Market Economy.

  Federico Ottavio Reho Centre-Right Economy Ethics
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2015

  In 2015 the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies once again showed itself to be a mature organisation with an established position on the European think tank scene.

  Ingrid Habets Anna van Oeveren Centre-Right EU Member States EU-US
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Germany and the Juncker Plan: 3 Steps to Reconcile Fiscal Consolidation and Investment

  Unsurprisingly even within the “Brussels bubble” economists cannot agree on the ultimate result of President Juncker’s European Fund for Strategic Investments (Juncker Plan). The mobilisation of additional funding mechanisms – over and above agreed national and EU frameworks – has caused unease with those who have prioritised budgetary consolidation as an immediate policy imperative.

  In this debate Germany holds the most important role as Europe’s strongest large economy in 2016. However, this note highlights that fiscal balance and increased investment are not mutually exclusive political actions, but rather form important elements of a sustainable economic policy framework. This is vitally important for all member states, but particularly for Germany, in light of its challenging long term economic outlook.

  Eoin Drea Simon Conry Economy EU Member States Eurozone Growth
• 

  Other

  V4 – Energy Security and Regional Markets: Challenges Ahead

  Security of energy supply is one of the three main objectives of the EU energy policy, on a par with competitiveness and environmental protection. However, prominence of the energy security as a policy area rose with the 2009 gas crisis and the 2014 conflict in Eastern Ukraine, prompting the EU to adopt Energy Security Strategy.

  According to the strategy, EU countries should strengthen their ability to face possible supply disruption and improve coordination of their respective emergency and solidarity mechanisms. They should further reduce their dependency on particular fuels, energy suppliers and import routes and increase domestic energy production, while taking demand moderating measures. 

  All these goals have been long on the policy agenda of the V4 countries. After the exposure to gas crisis in 2009, considerable improvements in terms of route diversification have been made. However, there are new challenges, mainly stemming from geopolitical situation and possible new gas infrastructure that could disrupt the ongoing integration into a bigger regional gas market. V4 power sector has been long viewed as relatively unproblematic compared to gas sector but new and very serious challenges are arising with adoption of ambitious environmental policies and growing RES volumes. 

  This paper provides a brief overview of the main challenges and areas we view as problematic or particularly important. It is a subjective selection, covering only power and gas sector issues. To make the paper concise and relevant, we chose not to touch upon other important energy security related issues linked to oil, coal or nuclear fuel. Also, to put the discussion below into a context, we provide some key statistics for gas and power sector in V4 countries but we do this in the annex to save some space and maintain the focus.

  The second part of the paper contains recommendations that would help policy-makers address the current challenges and strengthen the energy security in the Visegrad region and the EU as a whole.

  Energy EU Member States Resources Security
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Russia’s Downfall: The Worst Economic Crisis Since the Collapse of the USSR

  This working paper looks at the recent trends in the Russian economy and argues against the official view of the Russian authorities that the worst phase of the Russian economic crisis is over.

  The paper highlights the main driving factor behind the current crisis, the sharp decline of domestic consumption, unprecedented in the past twenty years, and argues that Western sanctions have had a great role to play in these developments. 

  Vladimir Milov Federico Ottavio Reho Ingrid Habets Crisis Economy EU-Russia
• 

  Research Papers

  Innocence and War: Searching for Europe’s Strategy in Syria

  After four years of war, Syria threatens the balance of its neighbours and the security of the entire Mediterranean basin. Europe’s interests are directly at stake in a conflict where it did not have the appropriate tools to react with at first: long procedures, a lack of cohesion between EU institutions, an absence of military culture in a country that shows no sign of appeasement and the inability of EU Member States to define a joint stand in the Middle East are fair criticism of Brussels’ performance.

  And yet, more than four billion euros were spent to heal wounds and help suffering communities while EU diplomats try to bring all sides to the negotiating table. With regional powers such as Russia, Iran, Turkey or Saudi Arabia playing on opposite sides, it appears that no factions can reach a decisive victory on the ground, as Bashar Assad, the Islamic State and the Syrian opposition are holding on against each other. Europe learned from the conflict’s dynamics and adapted its own foreign instruments to this violent context, notably in support of partners and civil society groups.

  Michael Benhamou Ingrid Habets Foreign Policy Middle East Security
• 

  Research Papers

  Live Long and Prosper? Demographic Change and Europe’s Pensions Crisis

  The recent financial and economic crisis has exacerbated the funding shortfalls of Europe’s public pension systems. However, although the ageing of Europe’s population is a general trend observable in all member states, its scale and timing will impact differently on a national level. By analysing demographic trends and utilising a case study approach, this research highlights the challenges facing national pension systems in the years ahead.

  Politically, it will be on the basis of national preferences that further pension system reform will occur in the future. With this in mind, it is too narrow-minded to take a solely fisc al perspective from which to develop European reform strategies which meet the requirements for both fiscal balance and sustainable public pension systems. Therefore, the EU should support national reform strategies by monitoring public pension reforms as well as improving the single market.

  However, public pension policy should remain a national competence. In addition, the examples of the Italian and British case studies highlight that long term pension reform should be innovative and involve public, occupational and private elements.

  Susanna Kochskaemper Jochen Pimpertz Eoin Drea Economy Macroeconomics Social Policy Sustainability
• 

  IN FOCUS

  The Refugee Crisis: Towards better cooperation between Europe’s national governments

  The current refugee crisis is primarily one of collective action between the EU’s national governments. This In Focus argues that without cooperation between the EU states, the situation is not going to improve.

  Among the EU institutions, the Council, that brings together the heads of state and government, plays the decisive role in showing direction and facilitating agreement. As for specific policies, the EU’s dysfunctional asylum system, which is based on 28 national systems, needs to be reformed, including by allowing asylum applications in the countries of origin.

  Member states need to start supplying Frontex, the EU’s external border agency, with personnel and equipment so that the border can be better protected. Turkey, which hosts the highest number of Syrian refugees, is the EU’s main partner in the Middle East.

  The EU also needs a new deal between host countries and newcomers on the refugees’ integration into European societies. One side of this deal is for European governments and societies to demand that newcomers respect basic values, such as freedom of speech, equality between men and women and individual liberty. The other side of the deal is that those who are granted asylum are given opportunities in employment and civic and political life.

  Vít Novotný EU Member States European Union Integration Migration
• 

  Research Papers

  Ethics and Religion: What’s the EU Got to Do with It?

  This paper contends that, contrary to the prevailing opinion, the EU is highly relevant to the issues of ethics and religion. Although policy matters should be dealt with at the lowest possible level, some are best dealt with by a common approach at the EU level of decision-making.

  In examining areas such as ethics and the economy, human rights, multiculturalism and the relationship with the Orthodox churches, the paper applies the tests of subsidiarity and centre and centre-right values.

  It also looks at areas that represent ‘unfinished business’ for the European People’s Party (EPP), including socio-economic and socio-cultural questions and the notions of social market. The author argues that member states and member parties of the EPP should lead the debate on ethics, values and religion.

  Within the atmosphere of pluralism, dialogue and tolerance, the EPP should continuously cherish its Christian roots and values while responding to the economic, social and cultural realities of the day. The party should also leave enough room for those that belong to non Christian religions and have other beliefs and convictions.

  Jos J.A.M. van Gennip Vít Novotný Christian Democracy Immigration Religion
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Greece – Between farce and tragedy: Four realities of Syriza in power

  The period since the election of Syriza to power in January 2015 has been marked by increased political uncertainty, economic instability and a growing polarisation of public attitudes in both Greece and the EU. The reality of Syriza in power has worsened the underlying economic conditions of the Greek economy, reduced the ability of the Greek state to provide essential public services and led to a clear breakdown in trust with other EU members. The election of Syriza to power did not result in a fundamental restructuring of the Greek or European economies, rather their lack of a coherent strategy (beyond reneging on previously agreed support programmes) has set the reform process in Greece back by several years.

  The coming to power of Syriza marked the culmination of pent-up public anger and discontent at prevailing economic/political conditions and the impact of such conditions across wider society. Notwithstanding several years of support programmes, the Greek economy requires further reform in order to ensure its long term sustainability. The shortcomings in the assumptions underpinning the initial programmes undertaken by the EU/ECB and IMF were complemented by implementation weaknesses which further eroded public support for the structural adjustments required. This resulted in a clear division arising between those in favour of the support programmes and those opposed. 

  The level of financial adjustment required in Greece – over 20% of GDP – imposed significant socio-economic challenges. In the public mind, ownership of the reform process then passed from national bodies to imposed, supra-national institutions, thus increasing resistance at both public and political levels in Greece. Resistance fuelled by populist political parties seeking short-term political gain.

  Syriza in power has sought to deliberately widen the gulf between those who acknowledge the long term importance of the many difficult structural reforms required, and those who seek to blame “austerity” for Greece’s current woes. In reality, the experience of Syriza in power has highlighted its complete lack of a defensible economic and political strategy which safeguards Greece’s position in the EU, protects the well-being of its citizens and acknowledges the current standing of the Greek economy.

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Eoin Drea Panos Tasiopoulos Crisis Economy EU Member States Eurozone Populism
• 

  Ukraine

  Caught in the Act: Proof of Russian Military Intervention in Ukraine

  Many Western politicians have drawn attention to the presence of Russian military equipment in the Donbass. NATO has released several satellite images depicting suspicious movements of the Russian army (RA) near the Ukrainian border and of border crossings of military equipment.

  All of this is further confirmed by evidence that military equipment used only by the Russian Armed Forces is now in the hands of separatists and by developments in the battlefield, especially the surprising separatist counteroffensive at the beginning of August and September 2014. 

  In  spite  of  the  factual  evidence,  some  European  media  consider  the question of Russian intervention to be simply a matter of opinion. They approach the issue from this perspective, apparently in order to maintain as much objectivity as possible. This uncertainty on the part of the media is supported by public figures who reject the idea that Russia is involved in the conflict.

  The end result of all this is that views on the issue are considered to be nothing more than personal opinions. The contradictions between the facts on the ground and media reporting prevent parts of European society from understanding what is happening in Ukraine.

  As we see it, the situation in Ukraine must not be perceived as a matter of opinion. The public has a right to true and clear information and this is our contribution to providing it.

  Using publicly available information, the paper provides irrefutable evidence that Russia has provided weapons to Ukrainian separatists and intervened in Ukraine. It is the presence of T-72B3 tanks, in particular, that proves beyond all doubt that the Russian military has intervened in Ukraine.

  Adam Cech Jakub Janda Vít Novotný Ingrid Habets Federico Ottavio Reho Defence Eastern Europe EU-Russia Security
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Seniors in the 2014 European Parliament Elections: Turnout, Voting Intentions and Representation

  The European Union as a whole has seen the share of the elderly population rise progressively. Over 18% of the population is currently aged 65 years or over, a figure that has risen by 2% over the last ten years and is expected to increase to 28% by 2050. This trend holds across all of Europe. Confronted with demographic ageing, the question arises as to whether this changing structure of the population is also having an impact on politics and elections. Despite the increasing share of seniors in society, few if any studies have focused on seniors’ voting behaviour.

  This paper aims to examine the voting behaviour of European senior citizens in the 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections. It is structured along three main questions. The first part will deal with the question of whether and how the increasing share of seniors in the overall population affects voter turnout in elections, considering age, generational effects and political knowledge and opinion as the main explanations.

  The second part deals with the question of whether and how the increasing share of seniors in the overall population affects election results, considering political opinion and party loyalty as main explanations. The third and final part will assess the representation of seniors in the EP, 
  considering the share of senior Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and the inclusion of representation of seniors’ interests.

  The paper finds that the seniors’ share in the population is increasing, and that they are also the most active voters. Additionally, they generally vote for centre–right parties that belong to the European People’s Party (EPP) family. Their decision to participate in the elections, however, seems to have been driven more by generational effects-that is, party loyalty and voting habits-than by active campaign mobilisation.

  Steven Van Hecke Lawrence Cappelle Gilles Pittoors Centre-Right Elections European People's Party
• 

  IN FOCUS

  BREXIT: Six ways it will fundamentally change the EU

  The debate surrounding a potential BREXIT has largely focused on the costs and disadvantages for Britain of making such a move. However, Britain leaving the EU would also alter the strengths and profile of the European Union. Britain is the EU’s second largest economy, a significant net contributor to the EU budget, hosts Europe’s only global financial centre and is an important driver of single market reform on the European stage. 

  In her absence, the EU will lose a key proponent of the market economy and free trade as drivers of economic growth and prosperity.  In this context, while BREXIT would be a catastrophe for Britain, it would also, as this INFOCUS identifies, fundamentally change the profile and focus of the EU. 

  The ongoing debate over BREXIT symbolises Britain’s detachment from Brussels based European affairs, a process hastened by the economic crisis of recent years. From a London perspective, long term doubts over the viability of the Euro have been reinforced by the depth of Britain’s economic recovery (relative to the Euro zone) and by the EU’s rule based approach to furthering economic governance.

  This detachment is physically apparent across the EU’s institutions. Although currently accounting for over 12% of the EU’s total population the proportion of British nationals employed in policy influencing roles in the European Commission has declined to just 5.3% in 2014. Less than 3% of all applicants taking the EU civil service exam (the concours) were British in recent years.2 In a wider context, Britain leaving the EU (and the uncertainty over the exact nature of the future relationship) poses a number of significant challenges for Brussels based policymakers.

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Roland Freudenstein Eoin Drea Angelos Angelou Brexit Economy EU Member States Macroeconomics
• 

  Research Papers

  Muzzling the bear: Strategic Defence for Russia’s Undeclared Information War on Europe

  It is not easy to come to terms with the reality that Europe is once again facing an adversary at its borders. Making a shift in Europe’s policy towards Russia would be painful, with too many interests involved and too many years of demanding diplomatic work going to waste. However, the sooner Europe reconciles itself to the reality that Russia has been engaged in an undeclared war against the liberal values underpinning the peace and prosperity of Europe, the sooner it can find the right policy response.

  Information warfare is an integral part of Putin’s assault on Europe. The scale and intensity of Russia’s information warfare capability has fully come to light in the country’s aggression against Ukraine. But, as this paper argues, these capabilities have been cultivated over many years and constitute an integral part of Russia’s new strategy for ‘hybrid’ or ‘non-linear’ warfare. This strategy uses military, criminal, intelligence, business, diplomatic, media, cyber and political techniques to achieve Russia’s goals.

  This paper analyses the main elements of Russia’s vast, well-integrated and well-organised information warfare capabilities. It also deciphers the main messages of Russia’s propaganda machine in the West, concentrating on Russia’s efforts to undermine faith in liberal values and legitimise its claim to former constituent parts of the USSR. The paper examines how Russia is using its allies in European business and political circles to spread its message. It also provides recommendations for policymakers and nongovernmental actors, with a view to countering Russia’s propaganda. Europe is at war—an information war. Like any other war, this requires a defence strategy.

  The West’s response to the Russian challenge should be better information, not more propaganda. Designing such a response will require developing delicately crafted policy options, constructing an appropriate institutional framework, allocating the necessary resources, and finding the right messages and messengers.

  Salome Samadashvili Ingrid Habets Eastern Europe EU-Russia Foreign Policy
• 

  Research Papers

  An Unholy Alliance: The European Far Right and Putin’s Russia

  The paper examines the connections between Russia and far-right political parties in Europe. It argues that these close relationships are based both on ideology and strategy. The European far right sees in Russian President Vladimir Putin the model of a strong, conservative leader who defends traditional values and opposes the decadent West. Since most far-right parties are at the same time against European integration and anti-American, they also see a close relationship with Russia as a necessary foothold in order to achieve the gradual disassociation of their countries from Euro-Atlantic institutions. The Kremlin, for its part, views these parties as possibly being useful for the achievement of its own objectives.

  Thus, it is interested in gathering them under its wing. In this context, in recent years far-right political parties all over Europe have established cordial relations with Moscow. Far-right leaders pay regular visits to Russia, have meetings with Russian officials and often appear on state-owned Russian media. The fact that they are discussants with the Kremlin boosts their credibility at home and improves their image. At the same time, they are often invited to monitor electoral procedures in disputed territories, thus offering some sort of credibility and international recognition for the results of ballots. The secessionist referendum which was held in Crimea in March 2014 is the latest example of this trend.

  More generally, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has offered a great opportunity for the expression of the pro-Russian sentiments of most European far-right political parties. These organisations see Putin’s policy as tangible proof of his resolve to impose his will on his opponents and to mark the reemergence of Russian power at the international level. From the Kremlin’s point of view, these parties can also help Moscow to expand its geopolitical influence. Even if Putin does not manage to see parties with pro-Russian leanings forming governments, he can still hope that their growing influence will exert considerable pressure on EU governments, especially as far as relations with Russia are concerned.

  Antonis Klapsis Ingrid Habets EU Member States Euroscepticism Political Parties
• 

  IN FOCUS

  Politics of Identity: What Next after Multiculturalism

  The failure of multiculturalism has been declared by many. Yet few have come up with alternatives to how Europe’s ethnic and religious groups can co-exist in our liberal democracies. This InFocus argues that Europe can benefit from the genuine desire that many immigrants have, to identify with the constitutions of their new home countries while maintaining elements of their own culture.

  European and national policymakers should elaborate on the existing concept of multiculturalism, and they could learn from the US and Canadian approaches to integration. Europe’s centre-right political parties have a particular role not only in opening politics to immigrants and their descendants but also in forging strong national and European allegiances that are compatible with group belonging. 

  The jihadist terror attacks in Paris and Copenhagen in early 2015 starkly reminded us that not all is well with the integration of Muslims into European societies. Paradoxically, the public demonstrations in France that followed the attacks injected a degree of optimism into European public life. These moving and encouraging public displays demonstrated beyond doubt that France continues to be a country of liberty. The 3.7 million people who were on the streets also proved, in their support for tolerance and freedom of speech, that liberal democracy is not dead. 

  Nevertheless, if anyone still had doubts, European liberal democracy is facing a number of external and internal tests. Among them are dealing with group identities and with jihadist terrorism, as these identities’ extreme manifestation. Positively dealing with group belonging is a precondition to tackling the wider challenge, to create a sense of common purpose at the difficult times that Europe is experiencing. 

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Vít Novotný Centre-Right Immigration Integration Society Values
• 

  Research Papers

  It’s Our Job: Reforming Europe’s Labour Markets

  The creation of jobs across Europe remains a key economic and social challenge for the EU. Given the negative impact of the financial crisis on  European citizens, the EU’s ability to promote effective job creation policies will be viewed as a major success of the wider integration process.

  In this context, a new approach is required to provide a growth-based strategy for creating employment across Europe. What is required is an achievable strategy based on the realities of modern EU labour markets. This research, based on an analysis of six member states, provides a set of recommendations designed to reflect the current characteristics of the EU labour markets. This research concludes that:

  • EU employment policies should be simplified and better coordinated;
  • Clearly defined action s should be introduced to further improve labour mobility;
  • The focus of policymaking should be switched from combating unemployment to creating jobs;
  • It is possible to finance the recovery by bridging the gap between investment and reform.

  Eoin Drea Siegfried Mureşan Economy EU Member States Growth Jobs
• 

  Research Papers

  Dawn of the Drones: Europe’s Security Response to the Cyber Age

  This research paper examines two modern disruptive military technologies that are being used increasingly frequently: remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) and cyber-attacks. These technologies are called disruptive because they are profoundly changing our societies and warfare. These changes also apply to Europe, so it needs to take them into account and adapt to the changes. More conventional threats have not disappeared, however, but are sometimes used alongside the new methods, as Russian aggression in Ukraine has shown. Europe is facing a hybrid threat with multiple elements that blend together and can change rapidly. However, Europe is falling behind in developing or even dealing with new technologies. Insufficient investment has been made in research and development (R&D) and, due to a decline in military technology programmes, the European defence industry is suffering. If this continues we might lose important capabilities that have already been jeopardised by defence-budget cuts in recent years, and the existence of European military technology know-how could even be endangered. Creating European projects, such as a common RPAS, and economies of scale will be necessary to support the European defence industry.

  Henna Hopia Defence Foreign Policy Innovation Technology
• 

  IN FOCUS

  TTIP: 11 Myths Exposed

  The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) aims to remove trade barriers between the world’s two largest economies – the EU and the US. The goal is to create growth and jobs on both sides of the Atlantic. There are three pillars upon which any future agreement will be based:

  1.  Market access for businesses
  2.  Enhancing regulatory cooperation; and
  3.  Setting international rules

  However, the opposition to TTIP in Europe has increased significantly. This opposition reflects broader discontent at existing political structures, the continuing fall-out of the economic crises evident in Europe since 2008 and the concerns many Europeans feel about the revelations concerning the National Security Agency (NSA). Empirical  data, however  positive,  will not be sufficient to  successfully counter  anti-TTIP arguments. For many, the benefits are intangible and too long-term.

  As noted by the British Parliament,  “the  traditional  political  hurdle  for  trade  agreements  is  that  potential  benefits are diffuse while potential costs are concentrated”. In this context it is important not to rely disproportionately on headline quantitative data, but rather develop real narratives to counter anti-TTIP arguments, which are often not based on the realities underpinning the TTIP process.

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Eoin Drea Economy EU-US Trade Transatlantic
• 

  Collaborative

  50 Years of Christian Democratic Cooperation in the EUREGIO

  ‘50 Years of Christian Democratic Cooperation in the EUREGIO’, by Shira Godfried, describes the history of five decades of the EUREGIO, summarises the achievements in cross-border cooperation in the German-Dutch EUREGIO and formulates recommendations on how border regions can play a role in the current EU. This book, published by the Centre for European Studies and the CDA-CDU EUREGIO Association, is on one hand a chronicle, and on the other a guideline for newer methods of cooperation in Europe. It sheds light on the future, describes expectations and formulates recommendations on how bordering regions can play a meaningful role in the current EU. Cross-border cooperation has contributed significantly to the European integration process in various Euroregions in past decades. Political cooperation, in which bordering countries make joint decisions, has proven its value in the German-Dutch Euroregion, the oldest Euroregion of all. Moreover, this book examines the Christian Democratic cooperation between CDU and CDA, but also ascertains that cooperation in border regions is often only made possible by special personal efforts.

  Shira Godfried Christian Democracy
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2014

  For the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, 2014 was a year of significant changes that reflect the organisation’s maturity and its established position on the European think tank scene.

  Hege van Dijke Ingrid Habets Eoin O’Driscoll Democracy Economy Elections Foreign Policy Transatlantic
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  Research Papers

  The Renaissance of the West: How Europe and America Can Shape Up in Confronting Putin’s Russia

  The West is being challenged in an unprecedented way: as crises and conflicts multiply in the eastern and southern neighbourhoods of the EU, terrorist movements, authoritarian regimes and especially a newly aggressive, fundamentally antagonistic Putin’s Russia are threatening the core values as well as the cohesion of the West. But the West is stronger than it looks and has lost none of its normative attraction to democrats across the globe or the subversive power that authoritarian regimes fear. A West that is rising to the challenges can open the way to a bright future: a Western Renaissance.

  The confrontation with a newly aggressive Russia is the most severe test. The European Union has to bury the idea of a modernisation partnership with Russia as long as the Putin regime is in power, let go of its Russia First approach, engage massively on reform in Eastern Europe and learn to accept the reality of a substantial conflict with Russia.

  The EU as an organisation must become stronger economically, streamline its decision-making structures and improve its security and defence policy while intensifying links with NATO. It has to reform its eastern neighbourhood policy and reduce its energy dependence on Russia. NATO members will have to increase defence spending, reform structures and find new answers to the challenge of hybrid warfare. EU member states will also have to find answers to the growing Russian propaganda and information warfare.

  Transatlantic relations remain the foundation of the global liberal order. They have to be strengthened and put on a more strategic basis. This includes much more determination on both sides to make the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership a success. But it also implies a better burden sharing, with Europe assuming more responsibility in security and strategy, and improved Euro-American coordination in global democracy support.

  Roland Freudenstein Ulrich Speck Crisis Democracy EU-US Leadership Transatlantic
• 

  Ukraine

  Ukraine after Minsk II: The military situation on the ground

  The ceasefire negotiated in Minsk last week by the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine (with delegates from the Separatists) is supposed to end the fighting, it fixes the ‘line of contact’ along the old one of the Minsk I agreement of September 2014, postulates the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line, assures administrative decentralisation and Ukrainian government control of the border with Russia, and calls for the withdrawal of all foreign troops. 

  But we can safely predict that a sizeable part of these conditions will not be met, above all by Russia and the separatists. That is because it is obviously in the interest of the Russian government to destabilise Ukraine and try to prevent a successful transformation of Ukraine into a free and prosperous country with the rule of law. Hence, the confrontation with Russia will continue, and last week has shown that the United States is an indispensable strategic partner for Europe when our most vital interests are concerned.

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Roland Freudenstein Viktor Artemenko Defence Democracy Eastern Europe EU-Russia Security
• 

  Research Papers

  Refuelling Europe: A Roadmap for completing the Single Energy Market

  The Ukraine crisis has reignited debate in Europe surrounding the EU’s lack of a fully functioning single energy market.  It has brought home to all member states the general need for a more coordinated energy policy, even though they may differ on aspects of what needs to be done.  This research highlights that integration of the internal single energy market should still be the EU’s main instrument to reach its three goals of cost competitiveness, security and emission reduction. 

  A roadmap for completing the single energy market is proposed based on a harmonised EU-wide system of renewable energy subsidies and significant infrastructure investment in many Central and East European member states.  These smart investments would form part of a coherent, long-term investment plan for the European energy sector and would enable these member states to improve their energy security through greater investment in gas storage and interconnectors. 

  The goals of energy security, affordability and sustainability have never been higher on the EU’s agenda. All three goals would be served if Europe truly unified its energy market. National leaders have it in their hands to complete this slow and difficult integration process, if they can just summon up the necessary political will to do so.

  David Buchan Eoin Drea Energy Renewable Energy Resources Security Sustainability
• 

  IN FOCUS

  European Energy Union: Why the end of South Stream should mark its beginning

  President Putin’s decision to cancel work on the South Stream pipeline may have far-reaching consequences regarding the development of a single energy market within the EU. Although Commission President Juncker (and Bulgarian Prime Minister Borissov) have publicly stated that South Stream remains a potentially viable project, its de facto mothballing by Russia provides the EU with an opportunity to develop alternative energy scenarios in south east Europe. 

  These are scenarios which would improve both the diversity and security of the EU’s energy supply.  This IN FOCUS sets out five key reasons why the end of the South Stream pipeline should mark the beginning of moves towards an European energy union.

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Eoin Drea Energy EU Member States EU-Russia Renewable Energy Resources
• 

  Policy Briefs

  The Christian Democratic Origins of the European People’s Party

  The European People’s Party (EPP) examined its values at the Bucharest Congress in October 2012. The result of this reassessment, the Bucharest Party Platform, affirmed the six core values of the EPP: the dignity of human life in every stage of its existence, freedom and responsibility, equality and justice, truth, solidarity and subsidiarity. These values are inspired by the Christian Democratic philosophy. Although today’s EPP includes also parties that do not consider themselves Christian Democratic, all member parties of the EPP draw inspiration from these values. After an exploration of the foundation of the EPP, this paper examines the party’s core values, tracing their origins to religious writings. The paper outlines how these values translate into the practical policies of the EPP: the party’s response to Europe’s economic crisis and addressing issues around free movement and access to social benefits in the EU. The paper demonstrates that values underpin the party’s policies but also that practical politics leaves room for interpretation.

  Barend Tensen Vít Novotný Federico Ottavio Reho Steven Van Hecke Christian Democracy Ethics European People's Party Religion Values
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  Other

  Economic Ideas Forum 2014, Bratislava – Conference Report

  Banking Economy Energy Innovation Jobs
• 

  Research Papers

  Building a Lifeline for Freedom: Eastern Partnership 2.0

  The Eastern Partnership (EaP) Initiative is the bridge which connects Europe to the countries in its eastern neighbourhood. Those countries were left out of the cycle of peaceful development, which the European project brought to the continent following the Second World War. It aspires to transform these countries into more democratic and prosperous societies. Over the last five years, the EaP has achieved more in some partner countries than in others. Structural policy weaknesses and different socio-economic realities of the partner states notwithstanding, the main challenge to the success of the EaP has come from Russia, which chose to view this policy as a zero-sum game for geopolitical dominance in its shared neighbourhood with Europe. This paper argues that in order to achieve the desired transformations, the EaP needs a fresh start, focusing on different players, methods and political technologies. Failure of the EaP to achieve its goal could deprive another generation of Georgians, Moldovans, Ukrainians and others in the EaP countries of an opportunity for a better life.

  Salome Samadashvili Ingrid Habets Brexit Democracy Eastern Europe Enlargement EU-Russia Neighbourhood Policy
• 

  IN FOCUS

  EU-Russia relations: How the EU should handle the Mistral case

  For the time being, France is still committed to delivering both Mistrals to Russia, but on the other hand, it is unthinkable that France would help modernise the Russian navy given the aggressive behaviour of Russia in Ukraine and the general future outlook for the whole  region  –  and  especially  the  rather  offensive  character  of the  weapon  system concerned. This commentary assesses the viable alternative to the sale of the Mistrals to Russia.  

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Benjamin Barth Defence EU Member States EU-Russia Security
• 

  Collaborative

  Reforming Dutch Occupational Pension Schemes

  Dutch occupational defined-benefit plans suffer from a number of serious weaknesses, including ambiguous ownership of the surplus, back-loading of benefits, and lack of tailor-made risk management. To address these weaknesses, we propose collective individual defined-contribution plans that are actuarially fair. These schemes maintain important strength of collective schemes, such as mandatory saving, collective procurement and pooling biometric risks. At the same time, they eliminate intergenerational conflicts about risk management and distribution through transparent individual property rights and tailor-made risk profiles. Lans Bovenberg and Raymond Gradus try to show how the transitional burden due to the phasing out the back-loading of pension benefits can be addressed without a substantial increase in contributions.

  Lans Bovenberg Raymond H.J.M Gradus Social Policy Society
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  IN FOCUS

  The EU’s Reform Cycle: Out with the old and in with the new? Romania and EU Growth dynamics

  The EU’s uneven recovery from the economic turbulence of recent years has highlighted a fundamental shift in Europe’s growth dynamics. A new briefing by the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies argues that as much of ‘old Europe’ struggles to regain economic growth, several of the ‘new Europe’ member states of Central and Eastern Europe (such as Romania) seem poised to drive economic activity forward in the coming decade. This shift, allied to the significantly improved medium term growth prospects of ‘programme’ countries (Ireland, Greece, Cyprus, Spain and Portugal), illustrates the positioning of more peripheral EU member states as reform leaders who may act as the catalyst for longer term growth in the EU.

  IN FOCUS is a new series of commentaries, in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Eoin Drea Eastern Europe Economy EU Member States Growth
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  Other

  Post-electoral Analysis: EP Elections 2014

  Official European Parliament data was used to analyse the changes in the number of seats. The data presented in this document reflects the changes in affiliation of national party groups since the elections of 22-25 May 2014. Some political parties under ‘Other’ may join the existing political groups as the final composition of the European Parliament is still taking shape. Individual political parties from some member states may not be properly assigned to the existing political groups due to a lack of accurate information at the present moment. The data in this document was extracted on 04 June 2014. Distribution of seats is visualised per political party and political group to make the comparison between 2009 and 2014 for all EU member states. European Parliament data was also used to analyse voter turnout.

  Kalin Zahariev Roland Freudenstein Centre-Right Elections EU Institutions EU Member States
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  IN FOCUS

  Free Movement: Is One of the EU’s Freedoms at Risk?

  The success of national populists in European Parliament elections in France, the UK and Denmark poses an increased risk for the EU freedom of movement. This new briefing comments on claims about the so-called welfare tourism in several Western European countries. It argues that there is very little substance to the allegations about the abuse of benefits by migrants from Romania and Bulgaria. It calls for mainstream political parties to confront the populists with facts and stand behind the basic EU principles.

  In FOCUS is a new series of commentaries, in which the Martens Centre looks closely at current policy topics, dissects the available evidence and challenges prevailing opinions.

  Boyan Tanev Vít Novotný EU Member States Migration
• 

  Research Papers

  A Model for Implementing Sustainable and Qualitative Growth in the EU

  The period since the outbreak of the financial, economic and social crises in Europe has witnessed a renewed focus on the need to develop a more sustainable and qualitative growth model. A model where the traditional focus on economic growth (i.e. GDP growth) is complemented by an adherence to a wider range of qualitative indicators. Indicators which more broadly characterise the well-being of society as a whole. This paper defines a model for Sustainable and Qualitative Growth (SQG) in the EU and questions if existing EU economic and social governance arrangements are consistent with this wider approach to building a sustainable growth model. This paper identifies a number of key recommendations. First, a more encompassing, balanced and multi-dimensional EU strategy for growth should be adopted. This refined strategy should take into account the broader indicators underpinning the SQG model and should be addressed in key EU documents such as the Annual Growth Survey. Second, a symmetric and ‘time consistent’ macroeconomic strategy, allowing for investments in SQG related domains, should be pursued. These growth-enhancing investments should primarily target relevant policy areas such as education and training, technological innovation and lifelong learning strategies. Third, a common automatic stabiliser in the EU should be set up in order to provide a minimum level of EU investment across all member states.

  Sebastiano Sabato David Natali Cécile Barbier Crisis Economy Growth Sustainability
• 

  Policy Briefs

  A Banking Union for an Unfinished EMU

  This paper argues that a fully-fledged European banking union is needed to stabilise the euro and to prevent a decade of high unemployment and low growth in the Vulnerable Euro Area Periphery Countries (VEAPs). What has been agreed by the European Council and the European Parliament in March 2014 is a step forward but remains insufficient.

  A further transfer of responsibilities to European institutions and more risk sharing are essential to sever the doomed loop of banks and sovereigns because individual EU countries are too weak to address this challenge alone. Ideally, we need a treaty change, but we also need to develop a second best solution that is based on the current treaty, while using its institutional and legal capacity to the full.

  However, a European banking union is not enough, given that banks’ assets exceed the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) threefold. The banking industry needs restructuring so as to prevent systemic risks and the legislator needs to have the power to intervene efficiently when needed. Finally we stress that any European banking union should be open to future eurozone member states.

  Hans Geeroms Pawel Karbownik Banking Crisis European Union Eurozone
• 

  Collaborative

  The Euro: Basics, Arguments, Perspectives

  The euro is one of the most important projects that the European partners have committed to since the foundation of the European Union. The common currency is a symbol for European integration. It gives Europe a unique opportunity to have a global voice. The global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis gave us a clear lesson: structural problems in individual member states can cause severe economic repercussions across the EU.

  However, the crisis in the eurozone is not a crisis of the euro itself. It is a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis and a competitiveness crisis combined. The roots of which lie in a series of inter-related issues starting with unsustainable fiscal policies all over Europe, lack of economic reforms and inadequate regulation of financial and labour markets. These were weaknesses which magnified the consequences of the global financial crisis that started in 2008.

  This leaflet offers an overview of how the euro has transformed the European integration process and the lives of many Europeans since its introduction in 1999. The European member states share rights and duties, opportunities and risks. Each member state has to make its own contribution to the ongoing recovery process. If we succeed in this, the euro offers more opportunities than risks.

  Economy Eurozone Integration Macroeconomics
• 

  Collaborative

  Europe – No, Thanks? Study on the rise of right-wing and national populist parties in Europe

  Right-wing and national populist parties have managed to establish themselves as relevant political players throughout virtually the whole of Europe. This rise of right-wing and national populists has come at the expense of all traditional parties. The current strength of right-wing and national populist parties is a result of them supplementing their ‘core themes’ of xenophobia and critique of the elites with a simple mobilising message, namely ‘no to this Europe’.

  Note: parts of this text are based on two chapters of the study Exposing the Demagogues. Right-wing and National Populist Parties in Europe published by the Centre for European Studies and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in June 2013. 

  Karsten Grabow Florian Hartleb Elections Euroscepticism Extremism Political Parties Populism
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2013

  Looking back at an eventful 2013, the CES continues to expand its network of like-minded organisations that now includes 29 members, as well as its strategic partnerships with organisations (International Republican Institute, Hudson Institute). Our online reach has quadrupled from last year, while our experts face daily requests from policy-makers and international media to provide opinions and expertise on the latest European developments.

  Hege van Dijke Centre-Right Christian Democracy EU Institutions EU Member States European People's Party
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  Collaborative

  Overcoming the stigma of failure: Perceptions of the European youth

  Business Economy Youth
• 

  Collaborative

  European Factbook 2013: The European People’s Party and Centre Right Politics

  
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• 

  Research Papers

  Getting Georgia Right

  Georgia is unquestionably the most open polity of the South Caucasus, and its political development will be a bell-wether for the prospects of democratic development across Eurasia. This research paper analyses the achievements and shortcomings of the Rose Revolution era as well as the prospects for the country under the leadership of the Georgian Dream Coalition. Furthermore, it discusses the influence of Russia on Georgia’s development on the path of European integration and democracy-building. In the past decade, Georgia has transformed from a failed state to a functioning one; President Saakashvili helped modernise Georgia’s conception of itself and moved Georgia irrevocably toward integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions. Prime Minister Ivanishvili has continued Georgia’s foreign policy priorities of EU and NATO integration, declaring these to be irreversible. Meanwhile, Russia is doubling down on its efforts at coercive integration of the post-Soviet space, with the explicit purpose of undermining the east–west corridor. Should Georgia’s democratic progress be reversed, the very feasibility of democratic governance in post-Soviet countries as a whole would be called into question. Should it continue to progress towards European norms, the viability of the model of state–society relations that Vladimir Putin euphemistically terms ‘sovereign democracy’ would instead be challenged.

  Svante Cornell Democracy EU-Russia Foreign Policy Neighbourhood Policy Security
• 

  Collaborative

  Teaching the History of Communism – Compendium for history teachers

  In its first part this publication contains a survey about the level of knowledge of young people in Bulgaria about the communist regime and the European democratic values. What significance does the educational system assign to the recent history of Bulgaria and what do young people know about the history of dictatorship in Europe as a whole? It turns out that 33 % of young people in Bulgaria have never heard anything about the Berlin Wall, more than 85% are unfamiliar with the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact or Solidarność. According to the survey, 17.5 % of young people prefer to live during the time of the communist dictator Todor Zhivkov, and only 30.8% during the democratic period after 1989. The publication is thus intended as a methodological tool for history teachers and in its second part contains a compilation of best practices from different Central and Eastern European Countries for teaching the history of the communist regimes and their consequences. The aim is to provide a source of inspiration for people working in educational institutions, ministries and even administration and to improve the quality of tuition on the subject. The publication also offers a list of online information sources about this period of Bulgarian history which pupils and teachers can make use of.

  Raluca Grosescu Vasil Kadrinov Democracy Eastern Europe Education
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  Other

  EU Policies: an Overview – From Decision-Making to Implementation

  The European Union affects our daily lives. National governments implement regulations and laws which have been made at the EU level. The EU removes barriers between Member States, and we all profit from the freedom of movement of people and services in the EU. However, it is not always clear how these decisions are made, what policies are in place or the consequences these have for citizens and the EU as a whole.

  With much ongoing debate about reforming Europe, it is now more important than ever to know more about EU policies. This book contains 16 chapters on various EU policies, from financial topics to justice issues and foreign policy. It gives a broad and in-depth overview of the EU’s and Member States’ efforts to work together on issues that concern all of us, across the borders of the Member States. It provides information on the state of play and offers a glimpse of where we are headed.

  The book is intended for anyone who would like to learn more about EU policies, but especially for policymakers who wish to gain deeper knowledge of specific areas of EU policy.

  Ingrid Habets Rudolf W. Strohmeier EU Institutions EU Member States European Union
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  Collaborative

  Hungarian Youth in Transylvania: A Research Report

  
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• 

  Collaborative

  Exposing the Demagogues: Right-wing and National Populist Parties in Europe

  Europe’s right-wing and national populist parties are on the upswing, even despite some recent electoral setbacks. They have entered parliaments across Europe and some parties are even participating in national governments. What is remarkable is that right-wing and national populist parties have changed their mobilisation tactics. While predominantly xenophobic in the past, right-wing populists now mobilise against further European integration – and not without success.

  For all actors involved in EU politics, these developments should be taken seriously. As political think tanks either directly involved in EU politics or deeply committed to the idea of European integration, the Centre for European Studies (CES) and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) analyse the reasons behind the advance of Europe’s right–wing populist parties. In addition, this volume discusses possible response strategies for the member parties of the European People’s Party in order to counter the progress of right-wing and national populists.

  For a policy brief summarising the main findings of this volume please see our related publication: Europe – No, Thanks? Study on the rise of right-wing and national populist parties in Europe. 

  Florian Hartleb Karsten Grabow Elections Euroscepticism Extremism Political Parties Populism
• 

  Other

  Economic Ideas Forum Helsinki 2013 – Conference Report

  Banking Economy Energy Growth Transatlantic
• 

  Research Papers

  Smart Fiscal Consolidation: A Strategy for Achieving Sustainable Public Finances and Growth

  Due to high government debt levels and the dangers of self-defeating austerity, smart fiscal consolidation measures are needed that foster economic growth. A thorough review of the relevant literature provides many useful insights. To regain credibility, a clearly communicated broad reform program (including structural reforms) is required. Targeting mainly public expenditures, rather than revenues, raises the chances of expansionary effects. The timing of consolidation should focus on adjustment in structural terms to leave room for automatic stabilisers. The main part of the study evaluates the impact of individual consolidation and fiscal reform measures on consolidation success, on economic growth (in the long and short term), and on social fairness.

  Jürgen Matthes Galina Kolev Economy Growth Macroeconomics Sustainability
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  Research Papers

  Trust(ing) in Europe? How increased social capital can contribute to economic development

  This report surveys recent works in political economy showing that trust—and civic capital more generally—matter for various aspects of economic well-being and presents new evidence from European countries showing that trust has deteriorated considerably in those European countries that have been affected the most by the ongoing economic downturn. We also discuss policy recommendations. The key message is that because trust and social capital matter crucially for economic and institutional development, countries must both monitor developments closely and pursue policies that cultivate civic social capital. Given strong inertia, changing people’s beliefs and promoting civic engagement will not occur overnight. Targeted policies can increase civicness and promote social capital considerably. First, promoting education seems crucial as, a higher level of education cultivates social capital. Second, countries where primary and secondary education are based on lecturing and memorising, should alter the curriculum towards more group activities, team projects, and critical thinking based on a dialectic method. Third, policymakers should continue promoting the outward orientation of the economy and the removal of administrative barriers to entry that fuel corruption and impede competition.

  Elias Papaioannou Crisis Economy Education Ethics Values
• 

  Other

  From Reform to Growth: Managing the Economic Crisis in Europe

  The global economic crisis that began in 2007 has posed huge challenges for European citizens and governments. The crisis has shown that the financial sector has not been adequately regulated and supervised, that governments and individuals have overspent, and that European economies are suffering from structural problems. This book, a collaboration between the Centre for European Studies and its member foundations, assesses government responses to the crisis at the national, EU and regional levels, and also offers policy recommendations. Governments should work with one another and with EU institutions to improve bank supervision and regulatory mechanisms. They should undertake fiscal consolidation measures, bearing in mind that government deficits and debt incur costs that burden future generations. Finally, they should undertake structural reforms such as creating flexible labour markets, increasing the retirement age and shaping efficient public institutions. Implementing such measures would bring about lasting economic growth, contribute to job creation and set Europe on the path to prosperity.

  You can buy the book, including e-book versions, at:
  Amazon.com (http://ces.tc/1fSgKTq),
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  Kobobooks.com (http://ces.tc/1gAG29Y).

  Vít Novotný Centre-Right Crisis Economy EU Member States Growth
• 

  Policy Briefs

  The Muslim Brotherhood after the Arab Spring: Tactics, Challenges and Future Scenarios

  Founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al Banna, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is the oldest and most influential modern Islamist movement. As per its motto ‘Islam is the solution’, the MB sees Islam as an all-embracing system governing all aspects of private and public life that, once implemented, constitutes the antidote to all the social, moral, economic and political ills plaguing Muslim societies.

  Even though it does not completely eschew the use of violence for political goals, the MB aims to achieve its goal of establishing a purely Islamic system of government as a natural consequence of the peaceful, bottom-up Islamisation of the majority of the population.

  The brief analyses the situation of Muslim Brotherhood (MB)-inspired entities throughout the Arab world two years after the beginning of the Arab Spring. In keeping with the flexibility and political opportunism that has characterised the group since its early days, Muslim Brotherhood inspired entities have adopted different positions according to the circumstances. In Tunisia and Egypt, where for the first time in history they have gained power through elections, MB entities are trying to gradually solidify their positions and advance their agendas while avoiding dramatic moves that could undermine their still weak hold on power.

  In Arab countries where authoritarian regimes still rule, Muslim Brotherhood entities are adopting positions ranging from participation in government to military confrontation. The brief concludes by analysing potential concerns for Western policymakers and future scenarios.

  Lorenzo Vidino Arab Spring Democracy Elections Foreign Policy Islam
• 

  Research Papers

  Breaking Down the Walls: Improving EU–NATO Relations

  Europe needs to use the strengths of both the EU and NATO to effectively respond to the ever more diverse threats that require collective efforts. This is the only way through which European security can be guaranteed in the face of struggles with limited resources and decreasing defence funding, as well as the further US disengagement from Europe. For this to happen, and as both organisations share most of the same member states, it is vital to achieve better cooperation between the EU and NATO. Attempts to strengthen EU-NATO relations have been made, but these have not been enough. The attempts always hit the same walls: both between the EU and NATO, and within these organisations. All EU Member States and the organisations themselves must now take responsibility and end the futile competition between the EU and NATO that is undermining European security.

  Henna Hopia Defence Foreign Policy Security Transatlantic
• 

  Collaborative

  Jobs without Frontiers: the Potential of the Single European Labour Market

  The labour market varies very widely across the EU’s member states. While unemployment rates in Greece and Spain have soared above 20 percent in the wake of the financial, economic and sovereign debt crises, other countries such as Sweden, Germany, Luxembourg and Belgium are struggling to find skilled labour. In theory, this should make it very attractive for job-seekers from the particularly badly-hit regions to migrate to countries where their skills are needed. But despite this, there is little mobility between EU countries. This is illustrated by the fact that there are more Mexicans living in the USA than EU citizens living in another EU country. There is no doubt that the crisis has triggered an increase in the numbers of people migrating between the various EU countries, but if we ignore the movement of citizens from the new EU member states of Bulgaria, Poland and Romania, the number of people migrating as a result of Europe’s economic imbalances remains very low. The proportion of workers in the EU who are citizens of another EU country has significantly increased, but the increase in those countries that are particularly suffering from a shortage of skilled labour is less than the average. So it seems clear that the imbalances between the European labour markets have only had a limited effect on this increase.

  Wido Geis EU Member States Jobs Migration
• 

  Collaborative

  Success via Reform: the German Jobs Miracle

  Over recent years, the German labour market has undergone an astounding transformation. What was once a problem child has now become an international role model. For decades, Germany suffered from endemic structural unemployment and high numbers of long-term unemployed. It was particularly difficult for unskilled workers to find employment due to significant barriers that prevented them from entering the labour market. In the mid-2000s, a raft of reforms was introduced that resulted in the unemployment rate being halved, despite the difficult economic climate. Germany has found its own, very individual and very successful labour market model to face the challenges of globalisation. But its success in Germany does not mean it can simply be transferred to other countries without modification. However, Germany’s experiences can certainly help its European partners to find their own ways of reforming their national labour markets.

  Werner Eichhorst EU Member States Jobs Social Policy
• 

  Research Papers

  Members of the European Parliament Online: The Use of Social Media in Political Marketing

  The appearance of political marketing and campaigning on social media is a relatively new phenomenon, which was first introduced in the US before spreading to Europe. The importance of online political marketing can be seen in, among other factors, the major advantages offered by the Internet—namely the rapid transmission of information and the possibilities for large numbers of people to connect. This is especially significant for politics on the EU level, which embraces a body of 375 million voters. Despite the fact that not everyone uses the Internet in Europe, the percentage of those who do is considered to be high enough for its application in politics.

  The goal of this paper is to examine the connection between European politics, Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and the use of social media, and to give suggestions on how the use of social media in political marketing could be further advanced. This paper starts with an explanation of what political marketing is and how it is used in politics. It explains the relevance of the theme of this paper, in the context of the lack of political legitimacy in the European Union and the low turnout in the European Parliament (EP) elections, and discusses the possible reasons for these.

  The paper then describes the growth of the use of the Internet, its influence on everyday life and its connection to politics. The paper then describes European Parliament elections and the fall in voter turnout (not only in the EU, but also at the national level). It then focuses on the growing use of the Internet in society – at the first place in electoral campaigns, although we have seen lately its application in social movements (e.g. the Middle Eastern and North African revolutions, political protests, the anti-ACTA campaign, the political riots in the UK, etc.).

  The conclusions suggest that, although present on the main social media websites (such as Facebook and Twitter), politicians and campaign managers in Europe need to further develop their use of this type of communication in order to find the right approach for European citizens. While campaign managers and advisors are mostly aware of the advantages the Internet brings to the field of political marketing, understanding of the phenomenon needs to be further developed among politicians.

  The paper recommends greater use of social media for the creation of stronger bonds between politicians and citizens in Europe, which could improve electoral participation and consequently contribute to overcoming citizens’ apathy and the lack of democracy at the EU level. Social media sites could be used to mobilise a larger number of EU citizens to vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections.

  Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic Elections EU Institutions Internet Technology
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  Research Papers

  Active Ageing: Solidarity and Responsibility in an Ageing Society

  Current demographic changes are a major factor in the increasing societal interest in the contributions older generations can make to the development and cohesion of society. This Centre for European Studies study argues that the traditional view of ageing is gradually being replaced by a new perspective, one with increased focus on older people’s capabilities, resources and potentials. It suggests that population ageing does not imply inevitable declines in a society’s competitiveness or reduced intergenerational solidarity. Amongst other policy recommendations, the study proposes flexibility in age limits, to prevent exclusion of older people from areas of societal responsibility. The study encourages a stronger focus on the productive participation of older people in political and public discourse, and support for civil engagement of older people through mechanisms such as incentive systems.

  Andreas Kruse Economy Ethics Social Policy Society Values
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  Research Papers

  Rethinking the Bomb: Europe and Nuclear Weapons in the Twenty-First Century

  The question of what Europe’s nuclear strategy should be is rarely discussed. While Europe continues to play a crucial role on issues relating to non-proliferation, particularly in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme, nuclear strategy is generally considered to be within remit of Russia, the United States and NATO.

  The paper identifies possible scenarios where the deployment of nuclear weapons may be justified. It also examines the use of tactical nuclear weapons, traditional means of arms control and the implications of a nuclear Iran. The author establishes a compelling case for the immediate development of a coherent European nuclear strategy. This strategy should take into account the role of nuclear weapons in maintaining peace and security in modern Europe.

  While conceding that during periods of financial and political crisis dialogue may not be considered a priority, the author maintains that it is essential in order to limit the risk of proliferation or the use of nuclear weapons.

  Marc-Michael Blum Defence EU-US Foreign Policy Middle East Security
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  Collaborative

  Schuman Report on Europe: State of the Union 2013

  The Schuman Report on the State of the Union is a work of reference which everyone now looks forward to reading every year. For decision makers and observers of European policy it is a source of original thought and ideas, underpinned by a strong requirement for quality. It is a tool for those who are looking for reliable sources in terms of European statistics and macro-economic data. Some eminent people have chosen to contribute their ideas also. In 2013, Josef Ackermann, former CEO of Deutsche Bank, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Zurich Insurance Group , offers his analysis of the banking Union, Lord Dykes, Foreign Affairs Spokesperson for the LibDems in the House of Lords, provides readers with his view of the future for the UK in the European Union and Alain Lamassoure, MEP, Chairman of the Budget Committee in the European Parliament, suggests a budgetary federation.The very best specialists help to throw light on the major trends ongoing in the economy and also in international and European politics. This book includes around 35 maps that are often unique, in explanation of the major issues the Union is facing. It also includes a summary of political Europe which analyses the 2012 electoral year (among France, Greece, The Netherlands, Romania), looks into the political and economic representation of women in Europe and draws up an overview of normative output in the Union in 2012. A unique series of commented statistics and maps covers all of the main topical issues (growth, buying power, economy, demography, immigration, energy, environment) and enables the Schuman Report 2013 to present a full view of the European Union and its policies.

  Thierry Chopin Michel Foucher Crisis Economy European Union Eurozone Values
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  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2012

  2012 was a pivotal year in European politics. The economic crisis reached a peak, but after four years of non-stop crisis management it would appear that the worst is behind us. While parts of Europe still face a long road to recovery, a consensus seems to have emerged on the necessity of the measures that have been taken and the positive effect they are having. Beyond our borders, the Arab revolutions and transitions to democracy in North Africa and the Middle East continue to be a foreign policy issue which requires constant and close attention.

  Ana María Martín Enda McNamara Centre-Right EU Institutions EU Member States European People's Party European Union
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  Collaborative

  Greece’s Horizons: Reflecting on the Country’s Assets and Capabilities

  The Greek economic crisis has imperilled the stability of the eurozone, generating much global anxiety. Policymakers, analysts, and the media have daily debated the course of the Greek economy, prescribing ways to move forward. This collection of essays progressively moves from an analysis of the causes of the crisis and the policy responses so far to a debate on some of the country’s advantages and capabilities that should underpin its new development model and propel the return to growth. The book seeks to provide motivation and inspiration for change by indicating some of the economic sectors where Greece maintains a comparative advantage. Therefore, it challenges the emerging picture of Greece as a country doomed to failure, where everything falls apart.

  Pantelis Sklias Nikolaos Tzifakis Crisis Economy EU Member States Eurozone
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  Collaborative

  Conservative Foreign and Security Policy

  It’s said that security is indivisible. But to the same extent that security cannot be subdivided, threats to security can be reduced to smaller units and analysed individually. This collection of articles subjects security – inevitably a central, existential concern for every state, nation and individual – to a somewhat more multifaceted treatment. The aim of this collection is to provide a new impulse for stronger cooperation. Particularly noteworthy is that the book brings together a wide variety of European voices pursuing a common goal. This sounds very optimistic and also necessary, as we cannot afford long and cumbersome processes, especially in the field of security policy. Threats and crises have the capacity to hit us with sudden inevitability, as the civil war in Libya has demonstrated. We must be able to act at the moment of crisis, not only later. Preference is given to a proactive security policy that is focused on avoiding all crises and military conflicts from the outset. Thus, this collection of ideas is being published at the right time. We are in dire need of a broad debate on the future of European Common Security and Defence Policy that brings together as many clever thinkers as possible. The following pages are well suited to acting as a starting point for such a debate.

  Mart Helme Defence Immigration Security
• 

  Collaborative

  Social Media and Politics – The New Power of Political Influence

  What do demonstrations on city streets in the Philippines in 2001, the election of Barack Obama as President of the United States in 2008, revocation of the results of the fraudulent elections in Moldavia in 2009, the M-15 movement with their camps and demonstrations in Spain in 2011, the so-called “Arab Spring” in the Middle East in early 2011, and the “Occupy Wall Street” movement that started in New York, also in 2011, all have in common?

  They have all used social media to help organise such protests and mobilise their responsible agents. Yet these were much more than just about arranging a party: they all greatly exploited social media to establish communication networks and move towards their objectives.

  Today’s social media have helped make real the idea of a “global village”, first put forward by communications theorist Marshall McLuhan in the 1960s, and suggests the claims of a “flat world” by twenty first century essayist Thomas L. Friedman are true. According to Friedman, personal computers and the speed of the optic cable in the transfer of information have marked the modern revolution and almost removed the limitations of time and space.

  Social media’s quick development into an important way to influence society is part of the advancement of information and communication technologies. The study Social Media and Politics – The New Power of Political Influence explores the development and use of social media in influencing politics and society.

  Ari-Matti Auvinen Innovation Internet Society Technology Youth
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  Collaborative

  Faith and Society: Christian Democratic reflections on the place of religion and ideology in the public domain

  The aim of this study is to explore the changes in the religious and ideological landscape of the Netherlands and how they impact on existing social relations. What place do religion and philosophy have in society and how should government relate to them? This theme is at the heart of Christian Democracy. The rationale for this is that Christian Democracy sees man as a rational being who seeks to find meaning in life. How people behave socially and politically cannot be considered separately from each individual’s inner calling. What is at stake is the deepest motivation of human beings to determine their identity at the deepest level. It can therefore be seen that the body of ideas of Christian Democracy and the movement’s legitimacy are closely linked to the right of citizens to organise themselves in social groups on the basis of their religion or faith. This report does indicate that the manifestations of religion and faith may well be subject to change, but for many people these convictions continue to represent an important source of inspiration. Tried and tested principles will therefore be revisited in this report taking into account the changes apparent in religion, society and government. It cannot be stressed enough that such values as freedom, pluriformity and tolerance are of crucial importance for a harmonious society.

  Maarten Neuteboom Christian Democracy Ethics Religion Society Values
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  Research Papers

  The Impact of the Crisis on the EU Perspective of the Western Balkans

  Like elsewhere in Europe, the crisis has affected economic developments in the Western Balkans, from Croatia in the north to Albania in the south. The countries in the region face difficulties such as high unemployment, decreased availability of bank credit and reduced trade. Furthermore, the inability of their political institutions to deal immediately with these economic challenges has reinforced the negative effects of the crisis. What does this mean for the Western Balkans’ accession to and integration within the EU? This paper by Rumiana Jeleva shows that improving the economic situation is an essential precondition for public support for EU integration. At the same time it argues that the pro-European orientation of the Western Balkans ensures that they will continue to look towards the EU, rather than to the US or Russia. This is demonstrated by the fact that they are not merely taking measures to recover from the crisis: they are taking measures that are aligned with European regulations. The Western Balkan countries may have a long way to go to become EU members, but they have proven their commitment to a future within the EU by their pro-European solutions to the crisis. This makes it all the more important for the EU, even in this time of crisis, to continue to support the accession process and bring the Western Balkans closer to the EU.

  Rumiana Jeleva Balkans Crisis Economy
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  Collaborative

  How Can We Foster Green Growth?

  This publication summarises the proceedings of a conference organised during April 2012 in Lisbon by the think tank Platform for Sustainable Growth (Plataforma para o Crescimento Sustentável) on the topic “How can we foster green growth?” Speakers included António Costa e Silva (CEO of Partex), Joy Kim (Advisor at United Nations Environmental Programme), Peter Vis (Chief of Cabinet of the EU Commissioner on Climate Action) and Carlos Pimenta (Coordinator of Sustainability at PCS). The aim of the event and the follow-up publication was to identify the role green economy can play to achieve sustainable growth in Europe in general and Portugal in particular.

  Mariana Castro Henriques Economy EU Member States Growth Renewable Energy Sustainability
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  Policy Briefs

  Migrating towards Participation: Immigrants and their Descendants in the Political Process

  Improving the political integration of immigrants is an important task for the European Union. The number of people with an immigrant background in the EU is gradually rising, a trend that is expected to continue. As a result, immigrants and their descendants are likely to play an increasingly significant role in the political life of Member States, as well as at the European level. Nevertheless, political parties in the EU seem to have neglected this phenomenon. Immigrants from third countries and their descendants rarely appear as party members; party leaders at the local, regional, national and EU levels; or as paid officials or candidates. Political parties should therefore consider more carefully the political potential of immigrants and their descendants.

  Vít Novotný John Lageson Immigration Integration Migration Political Parties
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  Collaborative

  Growth and Austerity: How to Foster Growth in Times of Austerity?

  This publication summarises the proceedings of a conference organised during February 2012 in Lisbon by the think tank Platform for Sustainable Growth (Plataforma para o Crescimento Sustentável) on the topic “How can we simultaneously foster growth and consolidate our public finance?” Speakers included Lucinda Creighton (Minister on European Affairs, Ireland), Andrew Haldenby (Director of the think-tank REFORM, UK), Philippe Aghion (Harvard University, US), Vitor Bento (President of SIBS) and Jorge Vasconcelos (PCS). The aim of the event and the follow-up publication was to identify policies and measures to foster sustainable growth in Portugal going beyond the Memorandum of Understanding signed between Portugal and the International Monetary Fund, European Commission and the European Central Bank. The main conclusion is that in addition to fiscal consolidation, Portugal also needs to focus on structural reforms and selective and reproductive investments on knowledge economy, green economy and industrial policy; this his will foster an innovation-led economy.

  Mariana Castro Henriques EU Member States Growth Innovation Sustainability
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  Policy Briefs

  Democracy and Legitimacy in an Economic Union

  The sovereign debt crisis in some EU Member States has shown that greater economic convergence, the long-term sustainability of public finan ces and a European approach to banking regulation and resolution is necessary in order for the eurozone to become a sustainable currency area. This requires further economic, budgetary, financial, and thus political, integration of the European Union . However, when EU governance mechanisms are implemented or strengthened there is a need to reinforce the democratic legitimacy of institutions and procedures. In the short term, work should be continued to introduce transnational lists of candidates for the European Parliament and the standard use of roll call voting; the biggest political families should declare their candidate for Commission president before the upcoming elections; and more regular high-level consultation and dialogue between members of national parliaments and European policymakers on economic, financial and budgetary policies should take place. When it comes to long-term reforms, this policy brief puts these proposals up for debate: attributing the right of initiative to the European Parliament and the Council, in addition to the Commission; the direct election of the president of the executive, the European Commission; and having the president of the executive also taking up the role of president of the European Council. Moreover, the European Parliament should be more involved in decision-making, particularly on economic policy.

  Roland Freudenstein Stefaan De Corte Democracy Economy EU Institutions
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  Other

  Ideas to Actions: A Springeneration for EU-MENA Cooperation in Education

  An action plan for EU–MENA cooperation in the field of education should aim to (i) strengthen ongoing projects under the Euro-Mediterranean Higher Education and Research Area while initiating new policy mechanisms to support quality education and network-based governance and (ii) coordinate EU efforts with those of other donors to create sound policies that are politically and administratively feasible.

  Katarina Králiková Hanan Rezk John Lageson Arab Spring Foreign Policy Middle East
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  Research Papers

  All Tomorrow’s Parties: The Changing Face of European Party Politics

  European political parties are continually under pressure, due to changes in societies, technologies and politics as a whole. But at the moment, Europe is on the threshold of a new environment that is changing the face of political parties themselves. The picture has elements both optimistic (concerning the possibilities of ‘virtual’ activism) and pessimistic (concerning ‘real’ membership and stable voting).

  In general, European political parties have to transform the tools of organisation and participation to tackle their declining memberships. New types of populist parties—virtual, ‘flash’, ‘couch’ or ‘one seat’ parties in which members fit on a single couch or in the case of Geert Wilders even on one chair—only arise during the electoral campaign.

  It is possible to observe two extreme positions or models that are attributable to the parties: one form is a strictly authoritarian leadership; the other is a more even, unfiltered participation based on a ‘virtual community’. In spite of this development, strongly principled parties based on values and stable commitments could still take a lead, provided they do not embrace a loose societal modernisation.

  Florian Hartleb Party Structures Political Parties Populism
• 

  Research Papers

  Dealing with a Rising Power: Turkey’s Transformation and its Implications for the EU

  Turkey’s growing assertiveness on the international stage, difficulties with EU accession, rapidly rising economy, and the long and controversial reign of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) are all necessitating a need for analysis. The present study of the Centre for European Studies presents two papers which look at Turkey and the AKP from different perspectives. Svante Cornell’s paper argues that AKP has moved away from democratic reforms and that Turkey’s ‘zero problems with the neighbours’ approach to international relations has failed. Gerald Knaus maintains that the AKP and the EU’s influence on Turkey have effected radical changes in the balance of power between the military and civilian actors, thus bringing Turkey somewhat closer to Western democratic standards. Both authors advocate continued EU engagement with Turkey, irrespective of the progress of accession negotiations

  Svante Cornell Gerald Knaus Manfred Scheich European Union Foreign Policy Mediterranean Neighbourhood Policy
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  Research Papers

  A Thorn in the Side of European Elites: The New Euroscepticism

  Currently there are considerable concerns about a new Euroscepticism arising in response to recent developments and a general feeling of malaise towards the European project from both national elites and ordinary citizens of Member States. Observers speak about an anti-European virus spreading via a new wave of street protests, especially in Greece and Spain, and among unsatisfied people in general.

  Even in Germany, the driving force of Europe, the EU is seen as a problem rather than a solution. The reason is rather obvious: some countries of the eurozone are in serious financial distress. For instance, the EU has had to create a European bailout fund for states, such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and maybe even Italy, that have suffered grave financial problems as a collateral consequence of the financial crisis of 2008.

  These measures of solidarity, paid for by the financially stronger countries, and the entire construct of the common economic zone with its flagship currency, the euro, are difficult to justify to the populations of the rich, subsidising countries. As a result, European elites are talking of a renewed danger of Euroscepticism. My aim in this paper is to discuss this phenomenon comprehensively, since it is important to distinguish between Euroscepticism as a general mood and Euroscepticism as (part of) a particular political and ideological profile presented by specific parties.

  Florian Hartleb Florian Hartleb Roland Freudenstein Euroscepticism Extremism Populism
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  Research Papers

  Contracting out to Private Military and Security Companies

  The global trend for contracting out the supply of military and security services to private military and security companies is growing. Security is being transformed from a service for the public or common good into a privately provided service. The present paper by Nikolaos Tzifakis argues that the implications of outsourcing security services to private agencies are not a priori positive or negative; proper regulation of private military and security services is important.

  The author recommends that states should determine their ‘inherently governmental functions’ and keep these functions out of the market’s reach. States should attempt to mitigate some of the shortcomings in the operation of the private market for security services by preventing supply from determining its own demand. States need to avoid contracting out services to corporations that enjoy a monopoly in the market. Instead, they should open competitive bids for all private security contracts.

  Nikolaos Tzifakis Katarina Králiková Defence Foreign Policy Security
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  Other

  Economic Ideas Forum Dublin 2012 – Conference Report

  The third annual Economic Ideas Forum, EIF12 took place in Dublin on the 19th and 20th of April and brought together experts and policymakers from across Europe and beyond. Participants included EU officials, parliamentarians and senior Irish politicians, as well as high-level representatives of major corporations. As Europe continues to struggle, fresh ideas are urgently needed for revitalising the economy, generating growth and creating jobs. This unique gathering of speakers and participants provided an ideal opportunity to discuss current economic issues and challenges while offering innovative policy ideas and solutions.Over the course of five panel discussions, as well as keynote addresses by EU officials, ministers and heads of government, significant and timely topics were tackled including greater integration in the European Single Market, greater fiscal responsibility in all Member States, closer economic coordination with Europe’s partners, especially the United States and creating a stronger European identity and sense of solidarity among citizens.

  Business Crisis Economy Eurozone Growth
• 

  Research Papers

  Addressing Irregular Migration in the Mediterranean

  A consensus is emerging across Europe that the EU needs a much more effective and coordinated maritime border control policy, enabling national and EU law enforcement and counterterrorism agencies to work more closely in tackling emerging threats and challenges concerning irregular migration. Policymakers stress that more effective border controls and maritime security depend both on new equipment and enhanced operational capabilities, as well as on achieving tighter cooperation and interoperability between maritime players within each nation and in coordination with EU agencies.

  For the first time, almost all nations now agree that the maritime environment must become a controlled one, similar to air space. This represents a substantial shift in thinking. Migratory pressures on the southern European border pose a tremendous challenge to European policymakers. So far, the development and strengthening of the EU bordermanagement strategy has been framed at the official level as a key policy priority on the EU agenda.

  The EU has managed to construct the first generation of Integrated Border Management (IBM). This includes a common codification of the acquis on internal and external borders, the Schengen Borders Code; the creation of Frontex, an EU agency tasked with coordinating operational cooperation between Member States in the field of border security; and a commonly agreed definition of what IBM means at a European level.

  The EU model of border management defines Frontex as the main institutional actor in charge of putting the integrated and global paradigm into practice. Frontex encapsulates the need to have a common European approach and to promote European solidarity in addressing the challenge of irregular migration. 

  Kostas Ifantis Katarina Králiková Vít Novotný Immigration Mediterranean Migration
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  Other

  From Mazowiecki to Tusk: The Solidarity of Europe’s Christian Democrats with the People of Poland

  
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  Research Papers

  European Integration of Western Balkans: From Reconciliation To European Future

  The dissolution of Yugoslavia at the beginning of the 1990s gave birth to seven independent states in the Western Balkans. After the wars that followed the initial proclamation of independence in several of these countries, a period of consolidation ensued, along with European integration as well as reconciliation efforts. The principal goal of this paper is to explain the reasons that led to the wars in Western Balkans, the main issues that remained in the 2000s and the EU initiatives that were supposed to help in resolving these problematic issues and to facilitate the accession of the countries of the region to the European Union. 

  One of the main goals of the original idea of European integration is defined as preserving peace in the Member States. This research paper argues that the same concept should be applied to the territory of Western Balkans, that is, that the European integration of the region could help to preserve peace in the region while also providing stability and, consequently, political and economic growth. Furthermore, the paper notes the growing need for interdependence amongst all of the European nations and states on different political and societal levels. 

  Moreover, as the main goal of the process of European integration is twofold—consisting of stabilisation as well as accession—the author critically assesses the relative value of the European Union applying either a regional or individual approach to the respective countries in the process of accession. 

  Despite the effort jointly performed by the EU as well as countries from the region, this new study shows that a lot of work will still have to be done before all of the countries become sufficiently mature in a political, economic and societal sense to become members of the European Union.

  Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic Lucia Vesnic-Alujevic Balkans Eastern Europe Neighbourhood Policy
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  Collaborative

  Bourgeois Virtues: the Aristocrat, the Ascetic, the Peasant, and the Bourgeoisie

  European electorates are squeezed between austerity they don’t like and stimulus they can’t afford. Economic growth would provide the easy way out. But how can growth be achieved if economic activities are restricted and success is not appreciated? The Bourgeoisie founded the modern world and made it grow out of pre-capitalist poverty. As bourgeois virtues, such as prudence in the daily business of life and courage in investing were dignified, entrepreneurs were granted freedom to innovate. However, the bourgeois virtues, values and freedom have always been resisted and despised by powerful counterforces. The question of growth or stagnation can be described as a struggle between political mentalities: the bourgeois against the aristocrat, ascetic and peasant mentalities.

  Paul Lillrank Economy Society Values
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  Collaborative

  Voting in the Hood

  Voting in the ’Hood, a study of immigrant voting behavior, is based on an Internet poll addressed to immigrants in Finland and one-on-one interviews, to recognize the challenges and driving forces behind the movers and shakers in different communities, and to increase political participation as a step towards better social integration. This project was meant to discover possible obstacles to voting amongst immigrants, and to ask our new Finns about their interest in taking part in the next election, and their feedback about the political process to the National Coalition Party

  Katja Vesander Democracy Elections Immigration Political Parties Society
• 

  Research Papers

  Transatlantic Free Trade: An Agenda for Jobs, Growth and Global Trade Leadership

  This paper presents the case for deepened trade and investment policy cooperation between the European Union and the United States. A trade deal between the two economic powers has become an increasingly popular notion, particularly given increased competition from China. Old arguments against a transatlantic deal have become weaker as the balance of the world’s economies has changed. Such an agreement would generate significant gains if designed properly and would encourage global trade liberalisation. It is time for the EU and US to press ahead with a free trade agreement. The EU and US also need to find a way outside of the WTO system to use their economic power as leverage in their dealings with emerging economies. An ambitious free trade agreement can, therefore, achieve more than the benefits of reducing barriers.

  Fredrik Erixon Stefaan De Corte Economy EU-US Trade
• 

  Research Papers

  The Next Multiannual Financial Framework: From National Interest to Building a Common Future

  The Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) is the budget of the European Union and the most important tool to finance common policy areas, actions and strategies. Upon a proposal from the European Commission, it has to be approved by the majority of the members of the European Parliament, before it can be unanimously adopted by the Council. This procedure, as well as the views of the different institutions and two representative Member States are examined in this research paper. All parties agree that the current MFF needs to be changed to respond to new EU priorities. However, reaching an agreement between the three negotiating institutions will not be straightforward, as views on the development of the financial resources of the European Union diverge considerably. Transparency of the decision-making procedure needs be increased to facilitate negotiation. The long-term strategic objectives and interests of European citizens need to be kept in mind when reflecting on an adequate level of funding for policies. However, there are differing views as to whether the budget should be increased or not.

  Stefaan De Corte Nico Groenendijk Corina Suceveanu Paweł Tokarski Patryk Toporowski Stefaan De Corte Economy Social Policy
• 

  Research Papers

  Green Energy- Green Business: New Financial and Policy Instruments for Sustainable Growth in the EU

  The European Union, as an early proponent of the shift to alternative forms of energy, has taken impressive efforts in promoting green business and environmental reform. Where does the EU stand today in its transition towards a sustainable economic model built on green business? What challenges do European policymakers and business leaders face in their progression towards a truly green economy? The availability of and access to private forms of investment capital is one of the most important challenges for new green industries struggling to maintain competiveness in the face of growing global competition. Other practical challenges for businesses in the renewable sector are highlighted in the paper using the case study of Germany. The paper proposes new forms of investment, sustainable financial products, the creation of common standards, and greater transparency. This should go hand in hand with the continuation of renewable energy subsidies and the exchange of information and the promotion of skills among businesses.

  Arash Duero Sandu-Daniel Kopp Stefaan De Corte Energy Environment Innovation
• 

  Other

  Students on the Right Way: European Democrat Students 1961-2011

  In 1961, a group of five students founded the “International Christian-Democratic and Conservative Student Union”. In 2011 this organisation celebrated its 50th anniversary as “European Democrat Students”(EDS). For decades, EDS, the largest political student organisation was the starting point of many political careers and could be proud to be the oldest pan-European organisation of the centre-right. By 2011, it became the biggest organisation of young people in Europe, representing 1,600,000 students and young people. The authors recount not only the complete history of the EDS since its foundation, but also describe and interpret the various reasons for its existence. By reading this book, the deeper roots of European integration become visible, outshining daily European business and creating a European identity EDS has contributed so much to.

  Bence Bauer Holger Thuss Centre-Right Education European People's Party Values Youth
• 

  Collaborative

  Canon of Dutch Christian Democracy

  Raymond H.J.M Gradus Centre-Right Christian Democracy EU Member States Political Parties Values
• 

  Other

  European Factbook 2012

  The European Factbook, now in its fifth year, is the consolidated annual publication with all relevant data and documentation about the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest EU-level Party which represents the political family of the centre-right. The  2012  edition  includes  the  latest  updates  and information from both European level and national level politics. With the Lisbon Treaty now in force, the EPP is currently the leading Europarty  in  the  three  main  EU  institutions:  the  European Council  with  16 out of 27 heads of state and government,  the  European  Commission with  13  Commissioners,  and  the  European Parliament  with 271 out of 754 MEPs. Apart  from  the  structure  of  the  EPP  and  its  role  in  the  EU institutions,  the  European  Factbook  includes  information about EPP member-parties in EU and non-EU countries, EPP parliamentary  groups  in  the  Council  of  Europe,  the  OSCE and NATO,  EPP member associations, as well as information about EPP’s think-tank the Centre for European Studies (CES) and its member foundations. Finally,  the  European  Factbook  provides  readers  with  a set  of  important  supplementary  documents  including  the ‘Giannakou Report’.

  Kostas Sasmatzoglou Bernada Cunj Óscar Sánchez Benítez Pavlína Heymans Špačková EU Member States European People's Party Party Structures Political Parties
• 

  Collaborative

  Schuman Report on Europe: State of the Union 2012

  The Schuman Report on Europe, the State of the Union 2012 edition is a unique, unequaled reference work on Europe. The Report is a source of information, analysis and proposals in which the most eminent thinkers express their ideas on governance, federalism, the euro, regulation, European industry, European budget, energy, international policy, social model, in other words a complete review of the European Union and its policies. This publication is also a practical tool with 34 unique maps, a summary of political and legal Europe and a complete range of statistics on the European economy. The third edition is devoted to the means to implement to overcome the crisis, with an exclusive interview with Jean-Claude Trichet, former President of the European Central Bank. All 26 contributions in the Schuman Report converge to one message: “the reasons calling on Europeans to stand together have never been as numerous as today”. Basing themselves on 67 commented tables and graphs and 34 colour maps, most of which are unique, the authors invite you to understand all of the challenges that the European Union faces today.

  Thierry Chopin Michel Foucher Crisis Economy European Union Mediterranean Values
• 

  Research Papers

  A Higher Education for the Twenty-first Century: European and US approaches

  Europeans and Americans have a lot to learn from one another when it comes to higher education. The US offers a wider and more diversified range of choice in higher education, and more Americans than Europeans attend higher education institutions. Conversely, European universities are more intellectually oriented, and European students generally are better equipped to analyse and adapt to new situations. This paper analyses the strengths and weaknesses of both systems and assesses how each can benefit from the other.

  Bruno Aguilera Barchet Vít Novotný Education EU-US European Union Transatlantic
• 

  Activity Report

  Activity Report 2011

  2011 proved to be a year of change and uncertainty, a challenging time both for decision-makers and political analysts. In the European Union, austerity measures became a painful but nonetheless necessary step towards tackling the sovereign debt crises, while a wind of change blew across North Africa with new calls for freedom. At the Centre for European Studies we believe that visionaries can turn times of political upheaval and change into opportunities. This is why we have focused our activities and research efforts on the Arab Spring, particularly through our ‘Springeneration’ initiative, which is an innovative online tool designed to create a bridge with people in Arab countries who are experiencing profound political and social changes. Through its research and policy papers, the Centre for European Studies contributed significantly throughout 2011 by enriching the discussions taking place at the European level from a centre-right perspective. Research projects covered a variety of issues ranging from European economic governance to populist movements, among others. Working independently or in close collaboration with its member foundations, the Centre for European Studies organised more than 70 events throughout Europe in 2011. With the aim of contributing to the academic arena, two issues of the European View journal were published in 2011. These editions were devoted to protest culture and populist movements, on the one hand, and to the rise and fall of states in the international arena on the other hand. Committed to the values of the EPP political family, the Centre for European Studies will build on its successes of 2011 and will keep working hard by ‘thinking Europe’ in the years to come.

  Ana María Martín Erik Zolcer John Lageson Centre-Right EU Institutions EU Member States European People's Party European Union
• 

  Other

  United by one conviction: The history of the Youth of the European People’s Party

  The founding of the Youth of the European People’s Party (YEPP) in 1997 was a remarkable event. After decades of division among the Christian Democrat and Conservative youth in Europe, which were split between two organisations-the European Young Christian Democrats (EYCD) and the Democratic Youth Community of Europe (DEMYC)-the critical mass of organisations finally decided to unite the centre-right youth in Europe in one single organisation in the mid-1990s. From the very beginning YEPP was a success and has developed into the largest centre-right youth organisation in Europe, bringing together 57 organisations from 39 countries. YEPP has also become the sole youth organisation linked to the European People’s Party, and in this way it has clearly contributed to the strengthening of the EPP political family. This book on the history of YEPP is based on primary written and oral sources. Documents from the YEPP archives have been used, along with a number of interviews with former YEPP Presidents and a number of key figures in YEPP’s history that were conducted specifically for the purpose of this publication.

  Steven Van Hecke Wouter Wolfs Centre-Right European People's Party Party Structures Values Youth
• 

  Other

  Opening the Door? Immigration and Integration in the European Union

  Migration into the EU and the integration of immigrants are matters that will be decisive for the future of Europe. Debates on these issues have been taking place at all levels within European society and government. These debates have also been held within the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and are playing a prominent role in many election campaigns. This has strengthened the need for knowledge to be shared about national approaches in the EU context and for policy-oriented research from a centre-right perspective. The Centre for European Studies (CES), the political foundation of the EPP and its Member Foundations, has therefore created this in-depth study of immigration and integration policies in countries across the EU. This book, the first produced by a European political foundation in cooperation with its member organisations, covers thirteen EU countries and one region, as well as the EU itself. It offers policy recommendations for the EU and its Member States. Its aim is to assist experts, politicians and other stakeholders with the adjustment of immigration and integration policies so that they are suitable for twenty-first century Europe.

  Vít Novotný EU Member States European Union Immigration Social Policy Society
• 

  Collaborative

  International Politics in Times of Change

  There is every indication that the international system is undergoing a period of significant transformation. The substantially higher growth rates of the emerging-market economies in comparison with those of the developed economies are changing the global distribution of power. Studies project that if economic trends are not reversed in the coming years, China will surpass the US and become the world’s largest economy, India will emerge in Japan’s place as the third-largest economy and Brazil will outpace Germany as the fifth-largest. This book underscores the complexity of forecasting international politics and proceeds cautiously to investigate the questions of change and continuity, examining several actors with respect to multiple issues and across different levels of analysis. Taken as a whole, this collection of essays offers a series of snapshots of different aspects, and from varying angles, of an international system in motion.

  Nikolaos Tzifakis Foreign Policy Globalisation Security
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Immigration and Integration in the European Union

  Immigration into the EU and the integration of those who have immigrated constitute two multifaceted and highly complex policy areas. These topics feature prominently in current political debates, which have been taking place at all levels within European society and government. These debates have also been held within the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and are playing a prominent role in many election campaigns. There has been a need to illuminate the ongoing debate on immigration and integration, inform national and European policies, and highlight areas of EU-wide importance. The Centre for European Studies (CES), the political foundation of the EPP and its member foundations, has therefore created the book “Opening the Door? Immigration and Integration in the European Union”, which was published in January 2012. Written by 24 academics and policy experts, this book covers 13 EU countries and one region, as well as the EU itself. Most of the authors of these country and region chapters were appointed by CES member foundations; the remaining authors were appointed by the CES. The authors and their appointing foundations are listed in the Appendix. This Policy Brief is entirely based on this book. It consists of two parts, Analysis and Policy Recommendations.

  Vít Novotný European People's Party Immigration Society
• 

  Other

  Europe and the Arab Revolutions

  In the aftermath of this year’s revolutions, the EU has rightly recommitted itself to the support of democracy and human rights in the Middle East and North Africa. However, although protesters across the southern Mediterranean share some of the EU’s values, they do not see Europe as a political model and democracy in the region is likely to produce some results with which Europeans are not comfortable. This brief argues that, in response, the EU should focus above all on the development of legitimate and accountable governments in post-revolutionary countries in the Arab world. Rather than backing specific political groups in countries that are in transition, the EU should work to create the building blocks and background conditions for fair and inclusive politics. The EU should also try to support human rights through transparent diplomacy and support for civil society. In countries such as Morocco that remain undemocratic, the EU should develop a more political approach that pushes harder for incremental reform in return for credible benefits, while continuing to engage on other EU interests. The use of violence against civilians in countries like Syria should be a red line for limiting cooperation, drawing condemnation and sanctions in severe cases. EU proposals on conditionality and a new European Endowment for Democracy will be most effective if they are focused on the support of accountable and legitimate government.

  Susi Dennison Anthony Dworkin Arab Spring Foreign Policy Neighbourhood Policy
• 

  Collaborative

  The Many Faces of Populism: The True Finns through the lens of political history and the media

  The purpose of this publication is to examine the True Finns’ good result in the 2011 parliamentary election from the viewpoint of political communication. On the one hand, it analyses the True Finns’ media publicity prior to the election as regards the coverage of the European Union and the global economic crisis in particular. On the other hand, it reviews how the True Finns’ MP candidates employed blogging in their electoral campaigns and the kind of response they received. These two forms of political communication are linked by the result: the True Finns gained credibility as a representative for many people as well as an agent in political activity. The main argument is that the mainstream media inadvertently mobilised the True Finns’ potential supporters, while the MP candidates of the party themselves managed to mobilise many more through the social media and, in particular, by blogging. Political mobilisation here means the capacity to reach potential supporters and convince them of the credibility of a party as well as the political alternative it has to offer. This, in short, is what happened to the True Finns prior to the parliamentary election in April 2011. The political communication exercised produced a self-conscious community of values aware of its right and authority to speak for significant mass of Finns, and whose power is recognised by other functionaries in the society. In this sense, the True Finns gained much symbolic power: the right to define social problems and point out ways to solve them.

  Erkka Railo Vesa Vares Crisis Party Structures Political Parties Populism
• 

  Collaborative

  Sustainability of Health Care in European Democracies

  In addition to the global economic crisis which broke out in 2008 the problems stemming from the ageing of the population in most European countries and the resulting increases in health spending call for reforms of the national health care systems. In addition to these problems a number of European counties are also facing difficulties caused by excessively bureaucratic structures in the health systems, imposing further burdens on the state budgets. This book looks at healthcare reforms, the ownership and operation of healthcare institutes and the structure of healthcare spending and the ageing society in a number of EU countries.

  Anna Balog Kristóf Joób Social Policy Society Sustainability
• 

  Collaborative

  The Many Faces of Conservatism: The Essence, History and Future of Conservative Thought

  The major crises of the 21st century, an age of geopolitical change and spreading turbo-Keynesianism, show us how quickly the democratic and free West can ostensibly lose ground. This is why society needs solid foundations more than ever before. In the recent past, “conservative” was often illustrated by the image of a person who is still skeptical about the Internet, who doesn’t know what “social networking” means and whose spouse fetches his slippers and prepares his meals: in short, someone who is fearful, suspicious and old-fashioned. A large part of the public associates conservatism with precisely these qualities. Hence the main purpose of this volume: to provide a fundamental overview of what conservatism means: conservatism as a compass in a increasingly complex world.

  Centre-Right Christian Democracy Party Structures Political Parties
• 

  Collaborative

  The Konstantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Yearbook 2011: The Global Economic Crisis and the Case of Greece

  In all probability 2011 is going to be one of the most critical years in recent decades. The problems created by the global economic crisis continue to affect the lives of ordinary people and could become a source of social instability. At the same time, developments at international level are creating a sense of uncertainty since long-established balances are facing profound challenges. With contributions by distinguished scholars and policymakers from Greece and abroad, the Konstantinos Karamanlis Institute for Democracy Yearbook 2011 addresses various issues of public debate both in Europe and internationally. Special attention is given to the global economic crisis and, more specifically, to its impact on Greece, which has recently found itself at the epicenter of international attention. Certain of the essays highlight the importance of leadership as an instrument for political reform, while a special section provides an update on the major global issue of climate change.

  Konstantina E. Botsiou Antonis Klapsis Crisis Economy Environment EU Member States Globalisation
• 

  Other

  Europa: Lluitar, Sobreviure

  Wilfried Martens has devoted his entire life to politics: as student leader, youth activist, President of the Flemish Christian Democrats, Prime Minister of Belgium, President of the European People’s Party and European statesman. In his autobiography Martens offers the inside story on running a complex country like Belgium, fighting for European integration and unification, and transforming the European People’s Party into a strong, united centre-right movement and leading European political family. Above all, this is book about the intricacies of European politics and its guiding ideas, values and principles.

  Wilfried Martens Centre-Right Christian Democracy European People's Party Leadership Values
• 

  Collaborative

  Governing the Internet

  Today the internet is part of our daily lives. But it is also part and parcel of our politics, from e-government straight through to e-revolutions. This book visits the major questions of Internet governance today bringing to the fore the role of the Internet in, and its impact on, politics and policy-making.This publication does not in itself aim to be an exhaustive text on the topic. Rather, the authors open small windows onto vast themes. Hopefully, this will entice readers to engage further with a relatively new area of academic research and perhaps – why not? – instigate them also to contribute to future research in this fascinating area.

  Ranier Fsadi Innovation Internet Technology
• 

  Collaborative

  Belarus and the EU: from Isolation towards Cooperation

  The book presents results of a collaborative study conducted by a team of authors from different Belarusian think tanks, as well as experts from Germany who are familiar with the problems associated with EU integration and enlargement. The study aims at analyzing the status of Belarus’ governmental, economic, social and legal situation, vital information in order to identify the measures which will be necessary for the country to reform and for its structures to become more compatible with the European Union. The path towards more democracy and freedom passes through a greater cooperation with the European Union. At the same time, the study suggests that closer ties with Europe will make wide-ranging political, economic, social and legal reform in today’s Belarus absolutely essential.

  Hans-Georg Wieck Stephan Malerius Enlargement Integration Neighbourhood Policy
• 

  Policy Briefs

  The EU at a Crossroads: An Action Plan

  At present there is deep concern about the Union’s ability to deal with the sovereign debt crises currently being faced by certain Member States. The authors believe that it is time to use the crisis as an opportunity to take some bold decisions.

  Hans Geeroms Stefaan De Corte Wim Moesen Banking Crisis Economy
• 

  Research Papers

  After Their Establishment: Right-wing Populist Parties in Europe

  Right-wing populist parties have developed into a stable institution and a long-term feature of European politics. Again and again they prove themselves capable of gaining electoral success at national level. Yet right-wing populist parties rarely succeed in coming into government, and even if they actually manage it, they predominantly function only as junior partners. This paper assesses how these parties have emerged, their main characteristics and how traditional parties can respond to their rise.

  Florian Hartleb Florian Hartleb Roland Freudenstein Extremism Party Structures Populism
• 

  Other

  Conservative Corrections

  The worldwide economic crisis and the citizen’s crisis of lack of confidence in institutions, politics and the economy means that it has become necessary to scrutinize fundamental political values and economic practices (e.g. quantitative easing), as well as their suitability for the future, much more critically if western democracies intend to maintain their legitimacy and not give way to post-democratic conditions in the medium-to-long term provoked by angry citizens and bureaucracies. The collection of essays in this book discusses weak points and fractures in the political system and shows how reverting to conservative virtues can make democracies and the economy prosper once again. These conservative corrections are a signal that a political life exists outside of utilitarian-materialistic intellectual uniformity.

  Roland Freudenstein Christian Kasper Christian Moser Christian Democracy Democracy Economy
• 

  Research Papers

  EU Economic Governance: The French and German Views

  One could view the current crisis as an opportunity to make up for past mistakes or past reluctance to do what was necessary. This was the approach adopted by the European institutions when they came up with their proposals on economic governance. This paper aims to provide an insight into the thinking of French and German policymakers when it comes to the issue of how the economic governance of the European Union should be organised, as well as assessing what has been done so far and providing new ideas for future steps.

  Jean-F. Jamet Werner Mussler Stefaan De Corte Vít Novotný Stefaan De Corte Crisis Economy Eurozone
• 

  Research Papers

  Political Islam in Europe and the Mediterranean: Three contributions

  Political Islam is becoming increasingly important to European politicians and policymakers. This research paper gathers together three edited papers from the event ‘The Atlantic Seminar: Understanding Political Islam’, organised by the CES and the Political Academy of the Austrian People’s Party (Polak) and International Republican Institute in Vienna (IRI). The three authors emphasise the need for a tailored approach with regard to each Islamic political organisation, because political Islam includes elements with varying programmes and agendas recognition of internal differentiation and disagreements within individual Muslim political organisations and recognition that Islamic organisations change and evolve over time.

  Walid Phares Lorenzo Vidino Amr Hamzawy Vít Novotný Islam Mediterranean Party Structures
• 

  Other

  Europa : lupt şi înving

  Wilfried Martens has devoted his entire life to politics: as student leader, youth activist, President of the Flemish Christian Democrats, Prime Minister of Belgium, President of the European People’s Party and European statesman. In his autobiography, President Martens offers the inside story on running a complex country like Belgium, fighting for European integration and unification, and transforming the European People’s Party into a strong, united centre-right movement and leading European political family. Above all, this is a book about the intricacies of European politics and its guiding ideas, values and principles

  Wilfried Martens Centre-Right Christian Democracy European People's Party Leadership Values
• 

  Other

  Economic Ideas Forum London 2011 – Conference Report

  The second annual Economic Ideas Forum, EIF11 took place in London on the 25th and 26th of May and brought together high-level government officials, business leaders and other influential stakeholders from across Europe and the United States. Participants included EU officials, parliamentarians and senior British politicians, as well as high-level representatives of major corporations. This unique gathering of speakers and participants provided an ideal opportunity to discuss current economic issues and challenges while offering innovative policy ideas and solutions. Over 200 participants took part in EIF11, which counted on the support of our partners the Stockholm Network and Business for New Europe.

  Business Crisis Economy Growth Macroeconomics
• 

  Other

  European Factbook 2011

  The European Factbook, now in its fourth year, is the consolidated annual publication with all relevant data and documentation about the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest EU-level Party which represents the political family of the centre-right. The 2011 edition includes the latest updates and information from both European level and national level politics. With the Lisbon Treaty now in force, the EPP is currently the leading Europarty in the three main EU institutions: the European Council with 17 Prime Ministers, the European Commission with 13 Commissioners, and the European Parliament with 264 MEPs. Apart from the structure of the EPP and its role in the EU institutions, the European Factbook includes information about EPP member-parties in EU and non-EU countries, EPP parliamentary groups in the Council of Europe, the OSCE and NATO, EPP member associations, as well as information about EPP’s think-tank the Centre for European Studies (CES) and its member foundations. Finally, the European Factbook provides readers with a set of important supplementary documents including the ‘Giannakou Report’, which was adopted earlier this year by the European Parliament.

  Kostas Sasmatzoglou Bernada Cunj EU Member States European People's Party Party Structures Political Parties
• 

  Collaborative

  Voting Far Away: Expats Exercising Political Rights Abroad

  There are an estimated 600,000 Finns living abroad. We know surprisingly little of their voting behaviour even though statistical data is available. What drives expats to vote? Tradition, duty? Genuine willingness to influence in the political life of the fatherland? Is there always a strong correlation between time spent away and non-voting? How big an issue is physical distance? Is alienation shown through non-participation? Which would be ways to activate expat voters to participate? Is national election in the old homeland less interesting than, say, local election in the country of residence? Which lessons could we learn concerning the European election? Are the expats happily assimilated or still identifying themselves clearly as Finnish – or do they end up feeling in-betweens? In short, the purpose of this study was to to examine expat Finns’ voting behaviour through case studies in major expat areas, to discover factors behind political participation abroad; obstacles and driving forces, ways to activate voters and fight “expat inertia”; to identify means to activate and engage expatriates politically and to identify networks and opinion leaders among expats affecting voting activism.

  Maria-Elena Cowell Democracy Elections Globalisation Political Parties Values
• 

  Other

  European Neighbourhood Policy: Addressing Myths, Narrowing Focus, Improving Implementation

  The upcoming Communication of the European Commission on the review of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) is likely to re-confirm conditionality and differentiation as the two guiding principles for the EU’s assistance to its Eastern neighbours.

  Balazs Jarabik Jana Kobzova Eastern Europe Mediterranean Neighbourhood Policy
• 

  Collaborative

  Schuman Report on Europe: State of the Union 2011

  The 2011 edition is devoted to “Europe and the Crisis and Threats at Large” (economic crisis, budget, Euro, reciprocity, defence, terrorism, industrial policy populism, etc) notably with articles by Jacques de Larosière, Anne-Marie Idrac, Alain Lamassoure, Joachim Bitterlich, Philippe Camus, Arnaud Danjean. It also includes an exclusive interview with Herman Van Rompuy, President of the European Council. 26 specialists offer readers original analyses, supported with unique data (48) and maps (28), covering everything there is to know about Europe in 2011. The articles focus on the following themes:

  • the European Union and the crisis, the rise of populism, Germany 20 years after reunification.

  • lessons to be learned from the world economic and financial crisis, outlook for the next European budget, the debt crisis, central banks and monetary policy, Europe and industrial ambition, economy and speculation.

  • the threat of al-Qaeda, EU’s new trade policy, European Defence.

  • the results of the electoral year, the representation of women in Europe, the protection of human rights, legislative output.

  Thierry Chopin Michel Foucher Crisis European Union Foreign Policy
• 

  Other

  At Europe’s Service: The Origins and Evolution of the European People’s Party

  The European People’s Party, the largest political party in Europe, has roots that run deep in history. Founded in 1976 as a Christian Democratic federation, the European People’s Party is now a strong centre-right movement and a leading European political family. It has member parties in almost all European countries, and it is very well represented in the institutions of the European Union.

  This book tells the story of the European People’s Party: why it was founded, how it is currently organised and what its guiding ideas, values and principles are. It gives an up-to-date account of the party’s contribution to European integration, its work with its member parties and its central role in organising the centre-right in Europe. Above all, this book is for everyone who wants to know what a European-level political party looks like, how it is structured and how it acts.

  The publication is available for purchase at the Springer website.

  Steven Van Hecke Thomas Jansen Centre-Right Christian Democracy European People's Party Integration Values
• 

  Research Papers

  EU-Russia Relations: Time for a realistic turnaround

  In this paper, three long-time observers of Russia and the EU perform a reality check on the EU–Russia relationship. All three authors agree that a more realistic EU policy would deal with Russia as it is, not as the EU wants it to be. The reality of today’s Russia is complex, as is the policy formulation process in the EU. Nevertheless, the EU should start with a clearer idea of where its own interests and priorities lie. It should accept that it can achieve fruitful cooperation with Russia in some areas while openly disagreeing with it in others. The EU needs to be prepared to work with Russia as an equal partner without compromising its own norms and values.

  Katinka Barysch Christopher Coker Leszek Jesień Roland Freudenstein Katarina Králiková Energy EU-Russia Foreign Policy
• 

  Research Papers

  The Future of World Trade: EU Priorities for the Global Trading System after the Crisis

  World trade is recovering from its sharpest decline since the Great Depression. Europe remains the world’s leading trading entity, despite the crisis. The authors of this paper assert that the EU should not retreat to protectionism, but should rise to the post-crisis challenge. The paper assesses how Europe can do this through strengthening the single market, proposes various objectives for external trade policy and examines the need for greater political advocacy regarding the benefits of open markets.

  Hanns Glatz Ana Palacio Razeen Sally Katarina Králiková Roland Freudenstein Crisis Economy Trade
• 

  Research Papers

  Old Ghosts in New Sheets: European Populist Parties and Foreign Policy

  This research paper analyses the foreign policy positions of five populist parties of the Right and Left in Western Europe. It focuses on foreign policy, an often ignored dimension of their ideas. It aims to fill a hole in policy debates by showing that European populism poses a coherent threat to mainstream politics, that foreign policy can be instrumental to the challenge mounted by populist parties against centrist politics and that the impact of those positions is practical and real for European states and the European Union.

  Angelos Chryssogelos Katarina Králiková Extremism Foreign Policy Populism
• 

  Activity Report

  CES Activity Report 2010

  2010 proved to be a successful, while at the same time challenging year for the European centre-right. While addressing challenges and struggles over a new model of economic governance and the future of the Eurozone, Europe had to accustom itself to the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty. The functioning of the European Union had been affected by the need for better cooperation between the institutions and had created many constructive debates in our society. The Lisbon Treaty reinforced the role of European political parties; therefore these parties and their foundations had to keep up their political efficacy and use to a larger degree the capacity for action and influence that the Lisbon Treaty gave them. In view of reinforcing civil society and awareness about the EU, think tanks started to play a more significant role. The Centre for European Studies in cooperation with its member organisations had an impact on crucial political debates in Europe as well as on the citizens of Europe. Through our successful activities in 2010 we made a further step in our ambitious path towards “thinking Europe”.

  Ana María Martín Maarten Marechal Lubica Nadasska EU Institutions EU Member States European People's Party European Union
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  Other

  The Power of Freedom: Central and Eastern Europe after 1945

  Mart Laar was the Prime Minister of Estonia for two terms, from 1992 to 1994 and from 1999 to 2002. His role in the successful democratic transformation of Estonia made him an internationally recognized expert in “democratic transition”. “The Power of Freedom” tells the gripping story of the journey of Central and Eastern European countries “back to Europe”. It maps the history of Communism in Central and Eastern Europe in times when Europe was divided by the Iron Curtain. On the western side people enjoyed freedom, democracy, the rule of law and successful market-based economies, while those on the other side suffered at hand of violent totalitarian regimes and the socialist planned economy. These regimes destroyed economies and provoked an environmental disaster. The book offers a detailed analysis of the transition to democracy and successful integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. It looks at past achievements, current political, social and economic developments, as well as the challenges ahead – and concludes that the transition has been a true success story. Mart Laar also provides several examples of how the reunification of Europe brought stability and prosperity to Central and Eastern European countries through sound economic policies and democratic political engagement.

  Baltic Democracy Eastern Europe Enlargement
• 

  Other

  European Factbook 2010

  The European Factbook is the consolidated annual publication with all relevant data and documentation about the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest European level Party that represents the centre-right political spectrum. The 2010 edition includes the latest updates and information from both European level and national level politics. With the Lisbon Treaty now in force, 2010 finds the EPP as the leading Europarty in the three main EU institutions: the European Commission, the European Council, and the European Parliament. Apart from the structure of the EPP and its role in the EU institutions, the European Factbook includes information  about  EPP  member-parties  in  EU  and  non-EU  countries, EPP parliamentary groups in the Council of Europe and the OSCE, EPP member-associations, as well as information about EPP’s think-tank the Centre for European Studies (CES) and its member-foundations. Finally, the  European  Factbook  provides readers  with  a  set  of  important supplementary documents.

  Kostas Sasmatzoglou Bernada Cunj EU Member States European People's Party Party Structures Political Parties
• 

  Collaborative

  Quasi-Democracy: Finland’s Fall from the Cradle of Innovation to the Abyss of Stagnation

  This book is the long-awaited abridged English translation of Lumedemokratia (Quasi-Democracy, 2009), which sparked a vivid debate about the nature of Finnish society, from recent history to the present day. It condemns the economic policy pursued during the great depression of the 1990’s and Finland’s continued failure to revamp its suffocatingly rigid labour market structures. The authors, Katja Boxberg and Taneli Heikka, claim that Finland still lacks essential elements that earmark a genuine Western democracy and true market economy; for this, they argue, we have to thank the ubiquotous Finnish consensus and the disgraceful era of “Finlandisation”. This is a book for anyone wondering why Finns “eat rubbery cheese, dull plastic-wrapped bread, and meat drowned in marinade”. Professor and historian Martti Häikiö provides a concluding commentary.

  Katja Boxberg Taneli Heikka Martti Häikiö Democracy Economy Society
• 

  Collaborative

  The European People’s Party: Successes and Future Challenges

  The mission and aim of this book is to reflect on values of centre-right parties. It provides a clear view of the history, intellectual basis and values of selected member parties of the EPP. This volume provides the first overview of the binding fundamental values as well as the traditional elements of the EPP. It includes portraits of the EPP parties from Sweden Poland Austria, Hungary, Romania, the Slovak Republic, Italy, France and the special case of the British Tories show the varying traditions and approaches of the individual member parties. The parties presented in this publication provide an insight into the different historical and ideological development of the individual EPP members. The fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989 made it possible for new democratic parties to be established and historical ones revitalized in Europe’s formerly Communist countries.

  Josef Pröll Werner Fasslabend Enlargement European People's Party Values
• 

  Collaborative

  Applied Christian Democracy: the Rhineland Model

  This publication is a collection of ideas and thoughts, which according to the authors in no way pretend to be “the truth”. Rather than formulate an easy answer, in this document, the attempt was to search for the right questions. The direct impetus for this kind of book was the outcome of the evaluation of the CD&V’s electoral defeat in June 2010. It became clear that one of the weak points was the lack of a clear long-term vision. This text is aligned with the principles of Christian Democracy in the determination of socio-economic policy. These actualized principles should be the leitmotif in the decision-making processes, that is to say, the daily application of the principles. Christian Democracy is present all over the Europe, and many of the challenges that CD&V is facing are similar to those that other Christian Democratic parties are facing. Therefore, this book is a space for discussion, it is not the end of a series of debates but rather the beginning.

  Koen Van den Heuvel Niko Gobbin Bart Ooghe Kurt Van Roemdonck Wim Soons Sven Vaneycken Frederic Reynaert Christian Democracy Economy Society
• 

  Collaborative

  European Union and Public Opinion in Estonia

  European integration is continuously a topic that needs attention. Although in different opinion polls Estonian people do appear EU friendly, it is not clear if, and to what extent they actually relate Estonia as a state and themselves as individuals to Europe and to different European processes. Therefore the Pro Patria Training Centre with the support of the Centre for European Studies (CES) and in co-operation with research partners conducted a research project using both quantitative and qualitative research methods to thoroughly understand public opinion and anticipation towards European integration.

  European Union Integration
• 

  Collaborative

  Schuman Report on Europe: State of the Union 2010

  After the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty and in the wake of the financial crisis which has challenged a number of certitudes and just as a new world order is emerging, it is now more important than ever to understand the issues affecting Europe today. The 2010 Schuman Report is a reference work to understand the European Union’s progress, its needs and the opportunities open to it. Once more the authors offer you original analyses which are supported by unique data and maps so that you can understand everything about Europe in 2010. The Report includes 22 articles written under the guidance of Thierry Chopin and Michel Foucher with a preface by Jean-Dominique Giuliani. The leading European experts address the following themes: the European Union after the Lisbon Treaty – opportunities and challenges; the European economic model after the financial crisis; the European Union an its neighbours : how are they progressing? What can Europe offer them?; the European Union in the world : how should it position itself in relation to the new powers? What kind of a relation can be established with the USA? What can be done for the Middle East?

  Thierry Chopin Michel Foucher Economy EU Institutions European Union Globalisation Leadership
• 

  Research Papers

  Stopping the Drift: Recalibrating the Transatlantic Relationship for a Multipolar World

  This report will examine America’s and Europe’s positions in the world and their relationship with one another. What are the reasons for the widening of the divide? Are they rooted in current political or individual constellations, or are there larger structural causes—even paradigm shifts—that are slowly driving the partners apart? It will then discuss several areas of transatlantic cooperation and describe how the current divides over these issues can be bridged and a new framework established: a new transatlantic relationship for the multipolar age.

  Fabrice Pothier Constanze Stelzenmüller Tomas Valasek Katarina Králiková Roland Freudenstein EU-US Foreign Policy Transatlantic
• 

  Research Papers

  Dialogue with Islam: Facing the Challenge of Muslim Integration in France, Netherlands and Germany

  The aim of this paper is to contribute to a balanced and consistent EU policy on Muslim immigrants. It pleads for creative and open approaches to the needs of both Muslims and society as a whole; for state cooperation with Islamic organisations; and for establishing schools of Islamic theology at European universities, staffed by Islamic theologians who can develop their thinking in a European context and communicate that to other imams. The paper also emphasises the need for realistic information about Islam and Muslims living in European societies.

  Hendrik M. Vroom Roland Freudenstein Vít Novotný Immigration Islam Religion
• 

  Policy Briefs

  GDP and its Enemies: the Questionable Search for a Happiness Index

  The financial crisis and global warming have led to a crisis of confidence in our traditional ways of measuring wealth because they do not take speculative risk and environmental costs into consideration. A number of alternative indexes have been proposed that would measure people’s well-being and the environmental sustainability of the planet.

  Even though the gross domestic product (GDP) measure has its problems, a look at the alternatives reveals that they are constructed with a specific political agenda in mind and are easily manipulated by governments.

  In fact, a strong argument for sticking with GDP is that it is narrow in scope and value free. It tells us what we can do, but not what we should do, and does not even try to define well-being. It fits a liberal, pluralistic society where people have different interests, preferences and attitudes to well-being. Our present environmental and financial problems can and should be solved within the intellectual framework of economic growth.

  Johan Norberg Crisis Economy Growth
• 

  Policy Briefs

  Muslim Brotherhood Parties in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region

  Olivier Guitta, a security and geopolitical consultant based in Europe, looks at the Muslim Brotherhood – its history, its ideology and its vision of the West as well as at three branches of the Muslim Brotherhood in Middle East and North Africa region.

  Olivier Guitta Islam Middle East North Africa
• 

  Other

  Health Care Reforms in an Ageing European Society, with a Focus on the Netherlands

  The Centre for European Studies with the cooperation of the CDA Research Institute published this study on health care in an aging Europe. The accessibility and affordability of care is a major issue in ageing societies. All EU countries have to handle this issue, although the increase in costs is uneven and financing and organization varies widely. It is to be welcomed that the Dutch experience with reforms in health care is shared in this study. It shows that great reforms are possible and what the necessary conditions are. On the other hand it also demonstrates the serious risks that countries face when they don’t succeed to reform. The role of the Centre for European Studies is to exchange views and ideas as well as to disseminate the results of research to the public and the decision-makers in health care and participants in health care discussions. This study by Evert Jan van Asselt, Lans Bovenberg, Raymond Gradus and Ab Klink contributes to this mission. All four are involved in the work of the Research Institute for the CDA, the think tank of the Christian Democratic Party in the Netherlands. Evert Jan van Asselt as deputy director and Raymond Gradus as director, Ab Klink as former Director and until recently Minister of Health Care and Sport. Hans Bovenberg was involved in many political studies of the Dutch institute as adviser and is an expert on ageing issues. The combined knowledge and experience has led to a forward looking study with a challenging policy agenda.

  Raymond H.J.M Gradus Evert Jan van Asselt Lans Bovenberg Ab Klink Social Policy Society Sustainability
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  Research Papers

  Baltic Sea Strategy a Pilot Project for Macro-Regionalisation in the EU

  The Baltic Sea region is the first macro-region to be recognised in Europe. The region is, therefore, a pilot project, setting an example and offering best/worst practices for other macroregions in the making. Dr. Esko Antola, the Director of Centrum Balticum in Finland, describes the development of the Baltic Sea Strategy and the next steps for the region.

  Esko Antola Baltic Democracy EU Institutions
• 

  Research Papers

  Flat but Fair: A Proposal for a Socially Conscious Flat Rate Tax

  This paper advocates the introduction of a flat rate income tax in the Netherlands. It also gives some recommendations for lowering the flat tax rate by shifting away from income taxes, increasing value-added taxes and broadening the tax base. It concludes by showing that a marginal tax rate plus social security contributions of 33.25% is possible. The focus of this proposal is the Netherlands, but several aspects of it may be relevant to other EU Member States.

  Raymond H.J.M Gradus Katarina Králiková Economy Jobs Social Policy
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  Other

  Economic Ideas Forum Madrid 2010 – Conference Report

  The first annual Economic Ideas Forum brought together high-level economic experts, Ministers of Economy, EU Commissioners, former Prime Ministers and Ministers of EU Member States and business representatives from around the world in an effort to set in motion a synergetic chain by involving EU leaders with the business community and inspiring them with strategic insights. The Forum took place in Madrid, 15 April 2010 during the ECOFIN Meeting of Ministers of Economy and Finance and was a perfect opportunity to present new ideas and offer solutions for overcoming the current global financial and economic crisis. The Forum tackled the hottest topics in the economic agenda: international cooperation; coordination of strategies; economic dynamism; the promotion of a value-driven economy; building a competitive and sustainable economy that promotes green investments, innovation, the promotion of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the activation of sustainable recovery actions. Over 250 participants joined in the Forum, which counted on the support of the two of the Centre’s member foundations, FAES (Fundación para el análisis y los estudios sociales) from Spain and KAS (Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung) from Germany.

  Business Crisis Economy Globalisation Growth
• 

  Research Papers

  Six Years after the 2004 Enlargement: Taking Stock

  This paper focuses on the political and economic impact of the ‘Big Bang’ enlargement of 2004, and discusses the question of the capacity of the enlarged EU to cope with the financial and economic crisis

  Jiří Schneider Václav Nekvapil Enlargement EU Institutions European Union
• 

  Research Papers

  European Political Parties as Campaign Organisations: Towards a Greater Politicization of the European Parliament Elections

  This paper looks at the origins and development of the European political parties, describes the campaign strategies in the recent European elections, analyses the results and implications of Europarties’ campaign involvement and outlines challenges and prospects for the future.

  Wojciech Gagatek Democracy EU Institutions Party Structures
• 

  Research Papers

  The New Eastern Europe: Challenges and Opportunities for the EU

  The six states of the ‘Eastern Partnership’ – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and the Ukraine – can be termed the “New Eastern Europe”. In this paper Svante Cornell, discusses the EU’s internal divisions and how to deal with the new Eastern Europe. He also outlines the prospects of the Eastern Partnership.

  Svante Cornell Eastern Europe EU-Russia Foreign Policy
• 

  Research Papers

  EU-Africa Relations: Dealing With the Challenges of the Future

  The purpose of this research paper is to critically review the policies of the European Union towards Africa, to consider some important future challenges for the interregional relationship and to present some useful policy recommendations

  Asteris Huliaras Katarina Králiková Foreign Policy Security Trade
• 

  Collaborative

  Reforming Europe: The Role of the Centre-Right

  In the 2009 elections, the European centre-right emerged victorious, thus affirming its political domination in contemporary European politics. The aim of this book is not to provide an analysis of the factors that contributed to the EPP’s political prevalence. Instead, it is to help this large political family maintain its vigour of political thought and policy prescriptions. The book provides a forum for prominent centre-right thinkers to debate the major European problems of our times, with particular emphasis on the management of the financial crisis and the next institutional steps regarding the European integration project. It assembles the views of politicians, academics and think-tank fellows from different national backgrounds and dissimilar ideological perspectives (Christian Democrats, conservatives and neo-liberals) who unfold their vision for Europe’s future. Moreover, it reflects the origins of contemporary European centre-right parties in order to reaffirm the core values and main priorities that have historically informed their policies. Overall, the book attempts to both highlight and stimulate the centre-right contribution to the discussion of Europe’s main contemporary challenges.

  Constantine Arvanitopoulos Centre-Right Christian Democracy Crisis European People's Party European Union
• 

  Research Papers

  Powerhouses of Recovery: Small and Medium Enterprises during and after the Financial and Economic Crisis

  Small and medium sized are the backbone of Europe’s economies and represent the future, driving innovation and change. Therefore, SMEs are important to economic recovery. This paper examines the issues facing SMEs, including the role of SMEs in Europe’s economy in times of recovery and growth and the effects of bureaucracy and punitive taxes on enterprise.

  Fredrik Erixon Crisis Economy Industry
• 

  Research Papers

  European Competition Policy: Design, Implementation and Political Support

  The goal of this paper is to make available to European policymakers a general and consistent framework to design the competition policy of the future, as well as to reform existing competition policy in the EU

  Filippo L. Calciano Katarina Králiková Economy EU Institutions European Union
• 

  Collaborative

  Good for the Economy – Bad for Trade: The Effects of EU and US Economic Stimulation International Trade and Competition

  Politicians and academics have warned against a surge of protectionist measures in light of the economic and financial crisis. Although the World Trade Organisation has extensive rules regarding tariffs, it offers few options for contesting protectionist subsidies and procurement conditions that favour domestic suppliers. This paper examines stimulus packages in both the US and EU, international rules governing protectionism and advocates a policy of greater market access.

  Christina Langhorst Stormy Mildner Economy EU-US European Union Trade
• 

  Other

  Tell Barroso

  The Centre for European Studies’ tellbarroso.eu survey was an innovative web-based platform which invited European citizens to participate in the political decision-formation process. This pioneer initiative was personally endorsed by José Manuel Durão Barroso. It was the latest in a line of initiatives by the Centre for European Studies (CES), the official think thank of the European People’s Party, aimed at bringing policy-making to the citizens by stimulating debate from the ground-up, proposing new ideas and providing a base for centre right political research.

  TellBarroso.eu sought to engage European citizens with the question: “What areas affecting your daily life should the EU focus its energies on?” Participants named and discussed issues which really matter to them. Subsequently, participants were given the opportunity to see what issues other participants had specified thus enabling them to evaluate these issues according to their own priorities. Lastly, the survey allowed the participants to add further issues triggered in their minds by the exercise. The data is particularly valuable as it highlighted both individuals’ queries and group queries in quantifiable cross-sections of society.

  By stimulating extensive interest on numerous websites and media, CES achieved both staggering participation as well as stimulating side discussions on the wider web. The format used for tellBarroso.eu encouraged wider debate in the blogosphere, as well as within online social communities, proving that Europeans do believe in the EU project and are willing to engage if presented with the proper approach and are given the right tools.

  The outcome of the web survey is presented in this report. Participation was high. With 153,479 participants, 12,092 proposals, 123,980 proposal evaluations and 576,914 proposal views European citizens spoke to Mr. Barroso. On 12th May 2009, ten participants of the web survey, who were selected at random, were invited to come to Brussels to present and discuss the findings with Mr. Barroso. Tellbarroso.eu has provided excellent feedback. It is hoped that this platform will inaugurate a series of new initiatives led by CES, bridging the gap between EU politics and European citizens.

  EU Member States
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  Policy Briefs

  Europe without the EU?

  This policy brief conducts a simple but daring exercise in counterfactual history by discussing the hypothetical consequences of the crisis for Europe in the absence of the EU

  Filippo L. Calciano Paolo Paesani Gustavo Piga Crisis EU Institutions Eurozone
• 

  Research Papers

  From Dialogue to Peacebuilding? Perspectives for the Engagement of Religious Actors by the EU and the EPP

  At the heart of this study is the nexus between intercultural dialogue and religious peacebuilding in the policy-making of the European Union (EU). The paper attempts to analyse the possible benefits for political agencies of the EU from extending their cooperation with religious actors to the prevention and reconciliation of violent conflicts

  Friedrich Bokern Sofia Lemmetyinen Vincent Legrand Brigitte Marechal Ethics European People's Party Religion
• 

  Collaborative

  Schuman Report on Europe: State of the Union 2009

  Globalization, international tension and security, economic and financial crisis, institutions and integration: these are some of the questions the European Union has to face in this election year for the European Parliament and the renewal of the European Commission. To understand what is at stake now and in the future, the Schuman Report 2009 is a reference work that offers unique analyses and maps along with vital data for everything the reader should know about Europe and the EU.

  Michel Foucher Thierry Chopin Elections EU Institutions European Union Globalisation
• 

  Research Papers

  Avoiding the Debt Trap: Public Finances in Crisis and Recovery

  As a consequence of the most severe economic crisis in post-war European history, public debt is bound to reach record highs in many EU Member States. Obviously, such scenarios pose an imminent but also ongoing challenge to European policy-makers both at national and at EU levels. Thus paper assesses the extent, consequences and possible solutions to the current public debt crisis in Europe.

  Michael Wohlgemuth Economy Eurozone Growth
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  Other

  Maintaining Europe’s Innovative Advantage: EU Policy Responses to the Asian Challenge in Pharmaceutics and Software

  This paper examines the extent of competitive challenge faced by European enterprises in the knowledge economy from the emergence of Asian technology powerhouses. Key sectors such as those of software development, IT services and pharmaceuticals are explored and the paper demonstrates that European politicians and business leaders should become more aware of the current and future innovative capacity that industries such as these are beginning to gain momentum in Asia today.

  Paul Irwin Crookes Nicholas Alexandris Economy Innovation Technology
• 

  Collaborative

  Turkey’s Accession to the European Union: An Unusual Candidacy

  European views on Turkey’s membership in the EU have been split between those in support of its full integration and those advocating a privileged partnership. To the extent that many of the latter proposals imply that Turkey will be partially integrated within Europe in certain areas, the question of Turkey’s accession is probably not about ‘if’, but about ‘how much’ integration there will be within the Union’s structures. The purpose of this book is not to offer a definitive response to this question. The book aims instead to examine the complexity of the issues pertaining to Turkey’s prospective EU membership by presenting several, often divergent, accounts of the political, security and socio-economic dimensions of the entire process. The book provides a forum for an exchange of views among distinguished scholars and researchers from different national backgrounds in order to contribute to the ongoing public discussion of Turkey’s accession.

  Constantine Arvanitopoulos Enlargement European Union Foreign Policy Integration Security
• 

  Research Papers

  Accelerating the Deployment of Distributed Renewable Energy: Through Innovative Market-Driven Policy Programs

  The world is rapidly moving toward increasing penetration of smaller, more local sources of energy. This paper analyses the existence and design of an optimal policy for building robust markets for distributed renewable energy solutions, specifically energy technologies that can be adopted at the point-of-use by energy users (as opposed to energy utilities) that are carbon-free and renewable. This includes the objectives of distributed renewable energy policy, how they conflict among stakeholder types, which elements have been used to stimulate market growth and which policy type can drive towards unintended and intended consequences

  Travis Bradford Jessica Lin Energy Environment Innovation
• 

  Research Papers

  The Russian Economy in the Crisis: Trends and Perspectives

  It took only several months for Russia and a number of other developing markets that had been experiencing miraculous economic growth to deteriorate to the point of near economic collapse.The financial crisis has been a central issue in Russia’s monetary and credit sphere since September 2008. This paper presents trends and prospects for the development of Russia’s economy in 2009 and beyond.

  Sergey Zhavoronkov Tatiana Drobyshevskaya Crisis Economy EU-Russia
• 

  Research Papers

  Squaring the Circle? EU-Israel Relations and the Peace Process in the Middle East

  This paper assesses the extent of cooperation between the EU, Israel and the PA and offers a set of policy recommendations for European policy makers responsible for relations with Israel, the PA and the Middle East in general.

  Emanuele Ottolenghi Michael Gahler Foreign Policy Middle East
• 

  Collaborative

  Man, where are you? An exploration of the Christian Democratic portrayal of mankind

  This study is an exploration of the principal characteristics of the Christian Democratic portrayal of mankind with a view to the discussion on the reformation of social institutions. There is a loss of self-evident social, moral and religious ‘horizons’ which determine the human scale. Modern societies have an fundamental attitude which is determined by a way of thinking which is unilaterally focused on effectiveness and control. The emphasis on use and efficiency results in a unilateral annexation of our creativity and responsibility and our ability to be involved and to cooperate. A politic which remains stuck in an oration of rationality, technology, control and individualism is not suitable to see into today’s problems, let alone solve them. we should look for ‘more subtle languages’ which could connect the ideological perspectives of meaningfulness with our social and economical reality.

  Christian Democracy Religion Society Values
• 

  Collaborative

  Jozsef Antall: Selected Speeches and Interviews (1989-1993)

  József Antall’s generation witnessed the painful conclusions of the partially democratic or outright totalitarian regimes which were in place between the World Wars. They recognised that the time had come for a humanistic political era which would exclude all kinds of inhumanities, injustices and features of dictatorship which differed so widely from democracy. This can be imagined principally as a conservative social policy concept based on Christian Democracy which is able to recognize its own faults and the frailties of human nature, promoting organic development of the world and calling for change without radical turns. Prime Minister Antall considered it essential to return to Christian traditions at a fundamental level which he believed to be the basis of Western Europe: “It is simply about that in Europe even the atheists are Christians. Europe’s Christianity means culture, ethics and approach.” He often referred to the fact that after the Second World War it was the Christian Democrat politicians who began to build a unified Europe and the founding fathers belonged to that circle. József Antall overcame much adversity during his sadly shortened time in government; his political accomplishments were outstanding in the development of Hungary and the neighbouring area. He recognized the challenges of his time and he was able to find substantive answers to promote the integration of Central Europe. That is why his thoughts are contemporary and exemplary even today and should be widely known in Europe and around the world. Speeches selected for this publication were delivered before the General Assembly of the United Nations, at the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe summits, Central European Initiative Heads of the States meetings, or moving, visionary ones, such as those about the concept of Europe, Hungarian foreign policy and challenges of presence, or even pre-electoral ones still are inspiration for many and serve as a tribute not only to a great leader and statesman but also as a monument to the way of approaching political and social affairs.

  Democracy Eastern Europe Economy
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  Other

  Europe: I Struggle, I Overcome

  Wilfried Martens has devoted his entire life to politics: as student leader, youth activist, President of the Flemish Christian Democrats, Prime Minister of Belgium, President of the European People’s Party and European statesman. In his autobiography, President Martens offers the inside story on running a complex country like Belgium, fighting for European integration and unification, and transforming the European People’s Party into a strong, united centre-right movement and leading European political family. Above all, this is a book about the intricacies of European politics and its guiding ideas, values and principles.

  Wilfried Martens Centre-Right Christian Democracy European People's Party Leadership Values
• 

  Collaborative

  Crossing bridges – Democratisation in the Middle East and a Christian Democratic Approach

  This report is about promotion of the democratic constitutional state in the Middle East. The perception of the Western world is not very positive in the Middle East. Religion is seen as part of a confrontation strategy, rather than part of the dialogue. But there is a bridge. For both Christian Democrats and Muslims, religion is a source of inspiration for their lives and their political orientation. Our experience is that religion can be a very rich source for democracy. The question is which elements of our tradition and history are most productive for the dialogue.

  Democracy Foreign Policy Islam Middle East Religion
• 

  Collaborative

  Fight against terrorism and Development Policy: Two Sides of the Same Coin

  It is a common perception that poverty is fertile breeding ground for terrorism. Or at least, fuel for such activity. But not all poor areas produce extremism; we know where young men absorb extremist ideologies, and where, for instance, jihadists receive their training. In the beginning we bumped into the problem of definition; what is terrorism? What kind of terrorism are we looking into? Should we leave, say, separatist acts outside? Then the decision had to be made: this conference was to concentrate its efforts on understanding the logic and driving forces behind Islamist terrorism, and whether a better directed development policy could play any role in fighting it – given that poverty and lack of opportunities do play a role in an individual’s decision to join a radical group. Security in Europe – or globally, for that matter – is of course not entirely dependent on religious fanaticism. There are new threats we are aware of, and which we should better prepare for. There was also a question about the possible links between security and development, and how they interact. 

  Maria-Elena Cowell Development Extremism Foreign Policy Security
• 

  Collaborative

  The citizen and Europe – A Christian democratic vision for the EU community

  What kind of Europe do we want to have? In order to answer this question we must consider the past, present and future. When we look at the past we see a rich European tradition and culture, and a Europe that stands for strong values that are still alive today. In the present we see decreasing involvement in Europe. When looking to the future we see questions for which common policies are necessary. What kind of future is desirable for the European Union from a Christian democratic perspective, and from the same perspective, what are the available means for improving citizen involvement in the European Union? We seek the answer along three lines. First of all we consider the values that Europe represents. We subsequently look at the present day reality of the EU and examine ambitions that the EU holds. We conclude with suggestions for how to strengthen the relationship between the EU and its citizens.

  Christian Democracy European Union Religion Society Values
• 

  Collaborative

  The Finnish Perspective: European Defence

  NATO and the European Union have developed, enlarged and grown closer to each other. With common security threats, which are global in nature and hold both new and old elements, the tasks of these two organisations have aligned. Now it is important to ask what must be done to avoid overlapping ef orts and to create beneficial synergies. The nature of these organisations offers possibilities and generates standards for further cooperation and integration. The purpose of this paper is to describe developments in the ever changing security environment of Europe, and the steps the EU and NATO have taken to tackle these threats. Could there be more profound defence cooperation between the EU and NATO? 

  Henna Hopia Defence European Union Foreign Policy Security