The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 marked a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, opening doors to political change and the possible return of millions of displaced Syrians. Out of the 12 million displaced, approximately 2.8 million have so far returned to their areas of origin.

Clashes between the Druze and Bedouin tribes in July 2025, alongside attacks on Christians in June 2025, the state’s failure to prevent them, Turkish and Israeli interventions, and remnants of the former regime, will make the return of refugees and displaced persons more difficult and once again place the future of Syria and its refugees at risk.

Ongoing economic collapse, damaged infrastructure, legal uncertainty over property and weak institutions complicate repatriation. The main host countries, Lebanon, Türkiye and Jordan, are tightening refugee poli- cies and reporting higher numbers of returns, some voluntary and others occurring amid increasing pressure or deteriorating conditions. These developments have prompted growing concern among humanitarian ac- tors about the voluntariness and sustainability of such returns. Even after the regime’s fall, mistrust, security concerns and fears of exclusion or renewed violence remain among all religious groups that are commonly referred to as minorities and displaced people and prevent them from returning home.

The brief presents three possible return scenarios: a democratic transition, an uneven transition and renewed repression. It highlights the roles of Syrian authorities, host countries, regional actors, the UN, the Arab League and the EU. It urges a coordinated, rights-based approach to refugee return focused on justice, security, legal reform, economic recovery and cooperation.