Pax Americana and the US-led global order as we have known it are vanishing. US President Trump has driven a wedge between US and European security, and is eroding NATO – to the delight of Vladimir Putin. However, si vis pacem, para bellum – this old adage is as true as ever. As the tectonic plates continue to shift beneath us, NATO needs to prepare for all eventualities. With the US becoming more transactional or even antagonistic, Europeans in NATO and the EU must change gear and focus on what is needed to become a serious geostrategic actor. The stakes could not be higher: If Europeans want to prevent the world form returning to an era where might makes right, they need to forge a shared vision of their future, including for defence and security. They need to find new leadership formulas, take a fresh look at institutional frameworks and laser-focus on building a broad range of capabilities.

This policy paper outlines the strategic context, defines plausible scenarios, and then charts out key policy recommendations focusing on three main areas: leadership, enabling frameworks and structures, and key capabilities.

Europeans in NATO and the EU can avoid a doomsday scenario where they would become the playball of strongmen in Washington, Moscow, or Peking. But that requires leadership, a firm belief in their strength, and determination to acquire the tools of an assertive geostrategic actor.