The State of Play of the Belt and Road Initiative: How should the EU respond to BRI 2.0?

A decade after its launch, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is being reinterpreted as a more selective but durable ‘BRI 2.0’, rather than a project in terminal retreat. Drawing on official Chinese statistics, third-party datasets, and an original study of the China Road and Bridge Corporation’s recent portfolio, the analysis shows how large, risk-tolerant policy-bank lending has sharply contracted, even as Chinese firms’ contracts, outward direct investment and trade with BRI partners continue to expand. Three shifts stand out: a reconfigured financing model in which host- country budgets, development finance institutions and commercial capital play a larger role; a sectoral turn towards the energy transition, critical minerals and high-tech manufacturing; and a political rebranding around ‘green, clean and small yet beautiful’ projects and people-to-people connectivity. Taken together, these changes amount to a form of market-shaped mercantilism in which ‘Global China Inc.’ is more deeply embedded in partner economies while environmental, social and fiscal risks are redistributed rather than resolved. The concluding section outlines the implications for the EU’s Global Gateway, urging a focus on shaping rules, standards and soft connectivity in a world where BRI 2.0 is a structural feature, not a passing phase.