The End of the Atlantic Era? A Historical Perspective

With transatlantic relations having entered a period of profound crisis since early 2025, this paper argues that disagreement has long been an intrinsic feature of the Atlantic partnership. From the fraught inter-war years to the institutionalisation of cooperation under NATO in 1949, the relationship has repeatedly been tested. Major episodes demonstrate that discord has been the rule rather than the exception. These include the Suez Crisis, disputes over nuclear strategy between Adenauer and Kennedy, divisions over the Vietnam War, the oil shocks of the 1970s and, especially, the Iraq War of 2003. Yet these crises unfolded within a shared strategic and civilisational framework that ultimately preserved alliance cohesion.

The current rupture differs in kind. While cooperation endured throughout and after various crises, the 2025–6 crisis reflects a deeper divergence of worldview. Under altered global power conditions marked by China’s rise and Russia’s revisionism, US engagement in Europe no longer resembles the post-1949 model. The US has adopted a more transactional posture, questioning long-standing assumptions about sovereignty, territorial integrity and even the political value of European integration.

This shift is unfolding amid high-intensity war in Europe, an eroding shared historical memory, demographic change and growing uncertainty over deterrence. The paper concludes that preserving the transatlantic bond requires strategic adaptation. Europe must strengthen its credible hard power, reaffirm the Alliance’s normative foundations, reinvest in the shared political culture and assume greater responsibility as a co-equal partner in order to sustain institutional pillars such as NATO in the more fragmented international order.

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