The European Union is stuck in a moment it can’t get out of. Wedged between the global aspirations of the U.S. and China, the bloc is struggling to achieve the political unity required to maintain its standing in the world.

Worse still, the war in Ukraine has come to symbolize Europe’s structural vulnerabilities. The degradation of its industrial military base is now synonymous with equipment shortages, capacity constraints and limited economic security. Decades of managed decline mean the EU (and Ukraine) are more dependent than ever on U.S. material. In addition, the EU is dealing with Washington’s increasingly volatile political environment and a U.S. security strategy placing the Indo-Pacific — not Europe — as America’s top priority.