The US Elections Change Everything and Nothing for Europe

The long wait for the election result is over: Donald Trump has won. Although polls showed a historically tight contest, many Trump supporters kept their preference private, leading to a clear result on Election Day, including in the swing states. Despite an aggressive campaign, marked by hostility, insults, and criminal charges, Trump emerged victorious. The reasons are varied, but the principal one is that a significant part of the American public perceives the country’s state as dismal, seeing Trump as the only candidate who can provide change.

Americans demand solutions on inflation, national security, border control, and crime—areas where Trump did offer understandable responses. Kamala Harris’s message, by contrast, appeared defensive and lacked clear vision. Furthermore, the Democratic Party’s shift to the left, with an increased focus on identity politics, did not resonate with voters looking for tangible support for the average citizen.

While the election was undoubtedly dramatic and the arrival of a new US administration signals upheaval, Europe’s core strategy and objectives remain unchanged, even with Trump in the White House.

Building European Defence: Empowering Europe and Easing Cooperation with Trump

The stakes for Europe are higher than ever, especially with the ongoing war in Ukraine. A lack of a Western response to North Korean troops arriving in Ukraine sends a signal of indifference. Although Washington remains divided on whether war in Ukraine is connected to Asian security challenges, it’s clear that Europe must step up as diminishing American support for Ukraine increasingly becomes a reality.

The US and Europe should no longer be discussing the conditions under which a third world war might start, as the scenarios of the 1940s are unlikely to occur on a global scale – the nature of conflicts has evolved. What we are witnessing today is a global proxy war that has already begun between democratic and authoritarian regimes. It manifests with varying intensity by region, and is primarily about global leadership.

As a consequence, a successful military outcome for Ukraine is crucial, while Europe must build its own defence capabilities and nurture a culture of civil defence. Domestic politics in France and Germany’s reluctance to fully implement its Zeitenwende for defence complicates progress on this matter. Poland and the Nordic countries, among others, may need to step into greater leadership roles.

An Uncertain Global Trade Outlook Makes Boosting Europe’s Competitiveness Essential

European political volatility is the reflection of a decade of economic stagnation. Facing demographic, economic, and security challenges, Europe needs growth. The bloc’s ability to address these various hurdles will be in large part determined by its ability to reform its productivity model amidst a rapidly changing global landscape.  

For the economy, as in many areas, interactions with the US will become transactional. Europeans should get used to it, and learn not to feel provoked by the Trump administration’s inevitable use of a “take it or leave it” bargaining strategy.

Transatlantic Relations Remain Central, No Matter Who Leads the US

The United States is at a domestic turning point, but Kamala Harris’s election would not have eliminated the polarisation there. Europe must prepare for a turbulent decade as political shifts in the United States continue.

Despite everything, the US and Europe remain each other’s closest allies. Together, they can still shape global developments. Europe should engage openly with the new Trump administration, striving to rebuild constructive relations, just as it would with any incoming administration.

The US has a remarkable history: in just a few hundred years, it grew from a distant colony to a global leader of Western culture, driving substantial progress globally. At the same time, the US, as a young nation, is likely to face intense self-examination in the coming years, with unavoidable impacts on Europe.

As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk tweeted recently: “Some claim that Europe’s future depends on the American elections, but it depends, first and foremost, on us. Europe must finally believe in its own strength.” Often called the “old continent,” Europe is still young in its efforts to unify. Many political entities are forged by trial, and the EU must answer the call of history. It is time for the bloc to step into full adulthood; the protective big brother for Europe is not there anymore.