Belgium’s ‘Not-So-Local’ Elections: National and EU Political Implications

Belgium’s local elections may not usually generate the same level of excitement as national ones, but this time they have set the stage for a political showdown that could shake up the national government. Belgians have already been to the polls in what has been a super election year for the country. In 2024 alone, they voted in five different elections—earlier in June for the federal, regional, and European elections, and most recently on October 13 for the communal and provincial elections.

From Wallonia to Flanders, voter turnout varied significantly. In Flanders, participation dropped to a historic low of 63% following the removal of compulsory voting. A similar trend was seen in Brussels, where one in five voters failed to cast their ballot, despite the risk of fines for non-participation. The turnout in Brussels reached just 80.6%, the lowest since the turn of the century. In contrast, Wallonia, where voting remains compulsory, maintained a higher turnout rate of 88%.

Wallonia: Centrist Les Engagés Score Major Victory, Liberals Maintain Stability

In Wallonia the standout performance came from Les Engagés, who with 24% narrowly edged out the PS for second place. This shift is not due to a particular decline in the Socialist Party’s fortunes that has remained stable since June, but rather to the remarkable rise of the centrist party. Les Engagés surpassed their record-breaking performance from four months ago, reaching new heights. Compared to the 2018 provincial elections, they doubled their vote share in the past 6 years.

The success of Les Engagés is also linked to their nature as a party with strong local roots, benefitting from extensive rural networks and a robust activist base. This local presence is key to their influence on national politics.

Meanwhile, the Reformist Movement (MR) has maintained its vote share of around 30 percent, remaining the first party in Wallonia. However, in several cities, such as Wavre (a liberal reformist stronghold since 1977 that was ruled by Charles Michel between 2006 and 2018), MR could potentially move into the opposition, as ongoing talks aim to form a new majority coalition.

As mentioned, the Socialist Party (PS) remained stable and no longer saw the growth it once enjoyed but has managed to hold onto its key strongholds, particularly in major cities like Liège, Charleroi, and Mons. PS’s strength lies in its strategic coalition-building, which has helped it stay relevant despite no longer being the region’s largest party.

Meanwhile, the Greens (Ecolo) continue to face challenges, though their decline is less pronounced than in the June elections. Their influence has diminished since the federal and regional elections, raising doubts about whether this signals a long-term loss of momentum for the environmental movement in Belgium or just a temporary setback. Ecolo’s struggles are further exacerbated by local and regional management issues, which have weakened their appeal compared to past electoral successes.

Brussels:  Left-Wing Gains and the Rise of a New Minority Voice

Brussels presents a similar political picture to Wallonia, with MR maintaining its lead and PS solidifying its role as the second-largest party. The centrist Les Engagés has seen an increase, albeit a moderate one, in its vote share compared to 2018.

The most notable development in Brussels is the rise of the PTB-Communists, particularly in the city’s northern districts, where they have made significant gains and entered negotiations to join the ruling majority. PTB’s momentum signals a growing left-wing presence in Brussels for the first time that is unlikely to fade anytime soon amid the current cost of living crisis. Indeed, a closer look reveals important differences between the economically weaker north and the more affluent south of the capital, which explains PTB’s success in the former areas.

Equally important is the emergence of a new minority list, which mainly campaigns on issues relevant to Brussels’ sizeable Muslim community. The newly established party, Team Fouad Ahidar, made a significant impact in the June elections, securing three seats in the Brussels Parliament and one in the Flemish Parliament. Its rising momentum marks a growing diversity in Brussels’ political landscape, raising important questions about how minority interests will be represented in future governance. This new dynamic could lead to further fragmentation in an already complex political environment.

Meanwhile, the Greens—Ecolo and Groen—failed to replicate the electoral successes they achieved six years ago, when they joined ruling coalitions in 14 of the 19 Brussels municipalities and secured mayoral positions in three communes. This suggests that voters are prioritising issues like employment, housing, and social services over environmental concerns, at least in the short term.

Flanders: N-VA Leads, CD&V Rises, and Vlaams Belang is Through

In Flanders, the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), led by Bart De Wever, continues to dominate. N-VA has shown modest growth since June and maintained its stability compared to the 2018 provincial elections. De Wever’s ability to retain his position as mayor of Antwerp, while successfully fending off challenges from both the far-left PVDA and the far-right Vlaams Belang, reinforces his role as a central figure in Flemish politics and strengthens N-VA’s position in the ongoing federal negotiations.

The real surprise of this election cycle comes with the Christian Democratic and Flemish Party (CD&V), which has emerged as the second-largest party in Flanders with 19.2% of the vote share following the results of the provincial elections. Although CD&V had remained stable since 2018, it gained six percentage points since June, a reflection of the party’s deep-rooted presence in the Flemish provinces rather than a true resurgence at the regional level.

Meanwhile, the far-right Vlaams Belang made headlines with a historic victory in the small city of Ninove, where it secured an outright majority for the first time. This win not only delivers the party its first-ever mayoral seat but also underscores its growing appeal in smaller, more homogeneous towns where anti-immigration sentiment is particularly strong. However, Vlaams Belang’s overall performance across Flanders was less impressive than expected, and while the Ninove victory is a significant milestone for the party, it still faces challenges in expanding its platform and making broader electoral gains.

A Window of Opportunity for Federal Governance and Reform

The next five years, free from federal elections, offer a crucial window of opportunity for Belgium’s political elites to enact significant reforms. The so-called “Arizona coalition,” comprised of N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR, and Les Engagés, has emerged bolstered from these elections, allowing the parties to set the tone for the country’s future governance.

However, forming a government that balances the diverse and sometimes conflicting interests of these parties—from N-VA’s Flemish nationalism and conservatism to Vooruit’s socialist policies—will be a formidable challenge. The growing influence of far-right forces like Vlaams Belang complicates the picture further, as the coalition must navigate populist pressures while maintaining broad support across Belgium’s regional divides.

The implications extend beyond Belgium’s borders. As the coalition shapes its agenda, its ability to address populism and regional tensions will be closely watched by EU leaders. Belgium’s approach to federal governance and reform will likely influence broader European debates on managing political fragmentation, migration, the cost of living crisis and rising nationalism within the EU. This is more than domestic reform—it’s a test of European cohesion, with Belgium, as a founding member and host to key EU institutions, at the heart of shaping a more united and resilient Europe in an era of rapidly shifting political landscapes.